Middle East

The security situation in Pakistan is tenuous ahead of next week’s parliamentary elections, with terrorist bombings continuing to occur. In addition, a little-reported public rally may indicate the future fracturing of Pakistan’s army. Former Pakistani army generals, navy admirals and air force marshals staged a rally in Rawalpindi on February 5, calling for Pervez Musharraf to resign as president of Pakistan. It was a follow-up to an Ex-Servicemen Society meeting held on January 22 at which retired military officials produced a four-point resolution that blamed Musharraf for Pakistan’s continuing turmoil and called for his resignation. A protest by retired military leaders is a good indication that there may be significant differences of opinion among military personnel. If the army were to fracture, with some segments supporting the radical Islamists, no Pakistani force exists that would be strong enough to halt the ensuing chaos.

You can be sure that Iran would look to exploit such a situation. Already, Tehran is busy making inroads into that country economically. On February 9, Iranian Consul General Saeed Kharazi called for stronger bilateral links with Pakistan, stating that Pakistan was Iran’s top priority as far as its foreign policy was concerned. “Pakistan and Iran can play important roles in strengthening the region,” he said. “The people of Pakistan and Iran are one.” He said Iran wanted to increase cooperation between the two countries in all fields. Iran’s status as king of Islam will only be bolstered by stronger ties with its Islamic eastern neighbor.

To its west, the Islamic Republic is showing it continues to be willing and able to hurt U.S. goals in Iraq. According to a U.S. government official, Iranian-backed groups in Iraq have increased their attacks over the past few months. David Satterfield, the State Department’s Iraq coordinator, said, “Iran remains, we believe, determined to pursue its goal of departure of U.S. forces under as difficult circumstances as possible, both as a means of securing its ambitions in Iraq per se as well as projecting through and beyond Iraq its broader regional and … international ambitions.” Iran is demonstrating that it still has power in Iraq—in order to get the most concessions possible from the U.S. in future negotiations. Referring to the general decline in intra-communal violence since the U.S. surge of troops in Iraq, analyst George Friedman points out that “without the Iranian decision to limit the violence, the surge would not have worked.” But, as the recent uptick in attacks demonstrates, Iran can change its mind at any moment it chooses.

On Tuesday, Imad Mughinyah, a Hezbollah leader who was one of the men most wanted by Israel and the United States for planning attacks that killed hundreds, was killed by a car bomb in Damascus, Syria. No one took credit for the killing, and though the general consensus is that the attack was carried out by Israel, no one really knows who was responsible. Nevertheless, we can expect Hezbollah and possibly its patron Iran to use the opportunity to retaliate based on the assumption that Israel was the perpetrator. Hezbollah has already threatened Israel with “open war” in response.

Meanwhile, last week the Egyptian foreign minister threatened Palestinians who would violate the Gaza-Egypt border: “Anyone who violates Egypt’s borders will get his legs broken,” Ahmed Aboul Gheit said on state television. Cairo is afraid that Hamas could influence Egypt’s own Muslim Brotherhood to instigate an Islamist uprising. Western media reporting of the incident was surely more muted than it would have been had the Israeli foreign minister made such a statement.

Europe

It has been reported that on Sunday Kosovo’s parliament will adopt “a statement of intent to proclaim independence” from Serbia (Xinhua, February 10). Though media reports say the declaration will take effect in March, there have been reports that Kosovo is on the brink of declaring independence for several months, so there is no guarantee of what moves Kosovo will make. Nevertheless, it seems the international community, and Russia and Europe in particular, is taking Kosovo seriously. The 1,800-strong EU peacekeeping force that has been in the planning stages for a while now has received the final green light, and should arrive in Kosovo Saturday. Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica appeared on national television on Thursday to tell Serbia to brace itself for Kosovo’s secession. It is unclear how Russia would react, but it is unlikely to let the West trample over Russian interests with impunity.

Also this week, Danish newspapers republished one of the cartoons that sparked so much outrage in 2005. A plot to murder the cartoonist behind the drawings was foiled on Tuesday. The next day the papers reprinted the cartoon to “to unambiguously back and support the freedom of speech that we as a newspaper will always defend,” as one newspaper wrote. This is one more indication that a clash between Europe and Islam is in the making.

Asia

The Kremlin is becoming increasingly concerned over the European Union’s eastward expansion. The EU has gobbled up most of Eastern Europe’s former Soviet states and is now looking at Ukraine. Russian officials are preparing to do everything in their power to stop the loss of their influence over Ukraine to an emerging European power bloc. On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and warned him that Russia would aim nuclear warheads at Ukraine if it joined the nato alliance. Yushchenko is trying to bring his country into both the EU and nato. Putin’s threat illustrates the reality that the EU must find a way to deal with Russia if it hopes to pull Ukraine into its sphere of influence. This clash of interests will determine exactly where the EU-Russian border will be drawn.

After declaring on Friday of last week that Russia is being forced into an arms race with Europe and America, Putin said this Thursday that he intends to work as a powerful prime minister of Russia after the presidential elections next month. “The president is the guarantor of the constitution. He sets the main directions for internal and external policies. But the highest executive power in the country is the Russian government, headed by the prime minister,” he told a press conference. We can expect Putin to continue running Russia in the same aggressive way he has for the last eight years. On Thursday, he said that he will press on with Russian strategic bomber patrols despite Western opposition. A Russian Tu-95 bomber circled the uss Nimitz aircraft carrier twice at low altitude last weekend.

Yet as Russia’s relationship with Europe and America grows tenser by the minute, Moscow still has a fast friend on the world scene. When Putin spoke before the Russian State Council on Friday of last week, he said, “China is one of our strategic partners, and links between China and Russia are important for the world stability. … The cooperation between China and Russia will reach new horizon in the future and will expand in fields such as trade and economy, science and technology, aviation and space research, and environmental protection.” Russia considers China a friend it can rely on in the face of conflict with the West.

Latin America, Africa

Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez threatened to cut oil sales to the United States on February 10. Chavez promised “economic war” if Exxon Mobil Corp. wins a court judgment to seize billions of dollars in assets from the state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela. Chavez is unlikely to follow through on this as, in the short term, he needs the U.S. to buy his oil just as badly as the U.S. needs Venezuela to sell it.

EU troops (eufor), began their deployment in eastern Chad on February 12. The role that French forces, separate from eufor, played in defending Chad’s capital means that the Chadian rebels no longer see any EU troops as neutral. As a result, eufor now faces more hostile conditions than originally planned.

Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe expelled former Finance Minister Simba Makoni from the ruling zanu-pf party on February 12, as Makoni declared he was running against Mugabe for president. Clashes between the two factions look set to heap more violence on this starving country.

Anglo-America

American Democratic presidential candidate Barak Obama won the Virginia, Maryland, and District of Columbia primaries this week. This gives him a definite lead over his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton and has led many political commentators to believe that Obama will be America’s next president.

However, whether America’s next president is Obama, Clinton, or McCain, the United States is going to rely a lot more on Europe, according to the German government’s coordinator for U.S. relations. All three candidates have indicated that, if elected, they would want Europe to take on more responsibility. This would likely include a greater contribution of troops to world security operations. Europe is looking to emerge as a shaper of global policies and would welcome the chance to take on more global responsibilities that have traditionally been held by the United States. As America heads toward new leadership, expect Europe to increasingly emerge as the world’s predominant superpower.

In an attempt to revitalize the American economy and head off recession, U.S. President George W. Bush signed a $168 billion economic stimulus package on Wednesday. This package will give hundreds of dollars back to U.S. families in an attempt to increase consumer spending and save the economy. The problem is, with a $9 trillion-plus national debt, a massive trade deficit, and a record number of housing foreclosures, America’s economic woes go a lot deeper than what a few hundred dollars per family can fix. America is clearly on its way out as the world’s economic powerhouse.

In Britain, Archbishop of Canterbury Rowan Williams said Thursday of last week that the implementation of elements of sharia law was “unavoidable” if social cohesion was to be fostered in Britain. The rise of radical Islam in Britain is causing untold problems—to the point where Anglican Church leadership has decided to give up and give in. If Britain continues on this path, expect the British public to lose any remaining patriotism and tradition that once made the country great.

Australia opened a session of Parliament on Tuesday with a ceremony that included Aboriginal tribal dances and respect being paid to the “ancestral spirits” who created the land. The next day, Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd made a nationally televised apology “to thousands of Aborigines who were taken from their families as children under now-discredited assimilation policies abolished in 1970—an act that many people view as a vital step toward reconciling black and white Australians” (Associated Press, February 11). The problem with this apology is that no one has been able to name even 10 of the supposedly “stolen” children. Tribal dances and prayers to ancestral spirits in an Australian Parliament session are a rejection of the Judeo-Christian values Australia was founded on. Without that moral foundation, the nation cannot survive as a united entity.