Geopolitical Review 2007
Living at the pinnacle of the information age means hiking through a dense haze of data smog every day. Mists of white noise wash over us, blown in by unrelenting mass-media technology. To sort through that smog, here is the Trumpet’s review of what really mattered in 2007—and where it’s all heading.
The World Comes Within a Hair’s Breadth of World War III
On October 3, “a very senior British ministerial source” said, “If people had known how close we came to World War iii that day, there’d have been mass panic. … [British Prime Minister Gordon] Brown really would have been dealing with the bloody book of Revelation and Armageddon” (Spectator, October 3).
On “that day,” September 6, an Israeli f-151 fighter struck a Syrian military installation in Dayr az Zawr. The mission was so secret, even the pilots were not briefed until they were airborne. The surgical strike was successful.
An Israeli attack on Syria would normally erupt into full-blown war, so news analysts were shocked at the silence from both sides following the event.
Why all the secrecy? Facts indicate that Syria was building a secret nuclear facility, which Israel destroyed to prevent the world’s second-biggest state sponsor of terrorism from becoming a nuclear power. Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry explained, “Government officials may continue to keep the Israeli strike shrouded in mystery, but the problem won’t go away. The Middle East is rapidly becoming more volatile, and everybody knows it. We are frighteningly close to World War iii.”
This shocking news represents world conditions in general, which are hurtling toward the edge of the cliff and World War iii—while the world sleeps on.
Europe Is an Empire
As the newsmedia remain fixated on the Middle East and Islamist terrorism, another, more dangerous power is rising in Europe.
European Commission President José Manuel Barroso stated on June 10 that Europe had “the dimension of empire.” He probably does not recognize how true that is.
The EU continued its eastward expansion with Bulgaria joining the Union on the first day of 2007. It cemented its eastern half more firmly on December 21 by expanding the Schengen area into nine new countries in Eastern Europe. The expansion diminished the importance of borders by suspending the need for passports and border checkpoints.
An empire requires not only unified territory but also a unified governing body. Enter the Lisbon Treaty, signed on December 13 and awaiting ratification. As the successor to the failed EU constitution, it should revolutionize the EU, establishing an elected EU president and an EU foreign policy representative, and simplifying the EU legislative process to a majority vote system. Barroso reiterated the importance of the treaty to Europe, saying, “It is the treaty of an enlarged Europe from the Mediterranean to the Baltic, from the Atlantic Ocean to the Black Sea. A Europe that shares common values and common ambitions.”
The EU is swiftly becoming a unified empire—and a decidedly undemocratic one. European leaders are circumventing the people to push through the Lisbon Treaty as the new unofficial constitution. The French and British heads of state have ignored calls for national referenda on the treaty, and the Portuguese ignored mass demonstrations against it outside of Lisbon, as did the press—to the point where the average European hardly knows anything about the treaty. As the Trumpet’s Ron Fraser wrote, “The term ‘democracy,’ to the bureaucrats of Brussels, simply has the same meaning as it has in Moscow or Beijing. The European Union is the new tyrant of the Continent.”
That tyrant is intent on conquering the Balkans and absorbing it into the EU. Germany has postured Europe into a unified stance over Kosovo’s independence from Serbia. Serbia, adamantly opposed to Kosovo’s independence, is desperately trying to prevent what it sees as German expansionism in the Balkans. Kosovo is ready to declare unilateral independence from Serbia at any time, and the European Union is set to take over the Balkans peacekeeping mission from the United Nations. The European empire is conquering Kosovo, Serbia, and the rest of the Balkans.
When Britain Leaves Europe …
Europe’s rise to power is about to accelerate as the European Union hurdles a major obstacle on the path to unification: Britain.
Britain’s new prime minister, Gordon Brown, who only took over for Tony Blair in June, had a stressful year as EU bureaucrats criticized him for holding up the Lisbon Treaty and as British citizens criticized him for signing away Britain’s sovereignty. Brown helped draft the Lisbon Treaty and signed it on December 13, despite calls for a national referendum.
Britain is interested in the economic benefits of the European Union, but a large portion of its population rightly sees the EU as a threat to British sovereignty. Polls show up to 70 percent of the population wanting a national referendum on the Lisbon Treaty before Parliament ratifies it. Brown has done everything he can to prevent that eventuality, because he knows that the British public is likely to shoot the treaty down. As it is, Britain still held the Lisbon Treaty back by inserting a number of British opt-outs into its text.
From the beginning, Britain has held back European unification, and now many Brits are questioning whether they should be in the Union at all. Herbert W. Armstrong, the late editor in chief of the Trumpet’s predecessor, the Plain Truth, wrote in 1956, “Probably Germany will lead and dominate the coming United States of Europe. … But Britain will be no part of it!” Watch for Britain to leave or be forced out of the EU and for the EU to unite faster as a result.
Europe Bows to the Vatican
Europe is returning to its religious roots—Roman Catholicism. This year saw both the Anglican and Eastern Orthodox churches make strides toward union with the Vatican. The Traditional Anglican Communion issued a petition to the Vatican this fall requesting that approximately 400,000 Anglicans be admitted into the Catholic Church. The number of Catholics in Britain that attend weekly mass now surpasses the number of Anglicans that go to church each Sunday. The Times of London reported in February that leaders in both the Anglican and Catholic churches have agreed to seek ways to bring the Anglicans back under the leadership of the pope.
Even as the Anglican Church moves back into the Catholic fold, Pope Benedict xvi is working toward Catholic reconciliation with the Eastern Orthodox churches. In a Catholic-Orthodox reconciliation meeting on October 13, a joint statement was signed by Catholic and Eastern Orthodox leaders (except for the Moscow representatives) recognizing the pope’s primacy over the Eastern Orthodox patriarchs, including those of Constantinople, Alexandria, Antioch and Jerusalem.
Herbert W. Armstrong explained for years that the Bible predicted that Anglican, Orthodox and Protestant churches would seek communion with Rome. These developments are increasing the power of the Catholic Church over Europe.
On February 19, Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi met with some of the pope’s senior advisers in a closed-door session. Pope Benedict severely criticized Prodi for trying to push through legislation in Italy that would recognize civil unions between homosexuals. Prodi resigned within two days. Two days later, Prodi had repented of his political error and retained the Italian premiership.
The event proved that Prodi has bowed to Rome. Soon all Europe will do the same.
Stoiber’s War Against the Bureaucrats
Despite Europe’s strides toward economic, military, religious and political unity, it is weighed down by ponderous bureaucracies. The EU is run by committee members appointed by the Union’s 27 national governments. This system slows EU decision-making and is expensive besides.
That is why European Commission President José Manuel Barroso appointed Edmund Stoiber this September to chair a committee to advise the Union on how it can reduce bureaucracy. Stoiber, who resigned from the Bavarian premiership at the end of September, is an ideal man for this job. He is famed for his rants against the bureaucrats in Brussels and for working miraculous improvement in Bavarian legislation. What Stoiber did for Bavaria, Barroso wants him to do for Europe.
In his new role, Stoiber quickly showed that he will be more than a committee head. After tiring of the Commission’s attempt to dictate to him how to do his job, Stoiber declared his advisory group independent and autonomous from the European Commission. As a result, Stoiber will advise Barroso directly on what the EU needs to do in order to streamline its operation.
In addition, Stoiber has also indicated that strong action must be taken to preserve the religious culture of Europe. During his farewell speech as Bavarian premier in late September, Stoiber criticized the increasing number of Islamic mosques in Europe. “When the mosques in our cities are bigger than cathedrals and churches, then we must tell our Muslim fellow citizens: ‘No, that is going too far,’” he said. The Trumpet continues to watch Stoiber as one who defends Europe’s Catholic culture against Islam.
Gerald Flurry has commented, “Stoiber has a vision for Germany, and he plans on taking the EU with him. But where would this vision take Europe? He wants a strong ‘federation’ within the EU. A powerful political government is one of his great passions.”
If Europe is to shape global policy as a world player, it must develop a powerful and consolidated government. The Trumpet is watching for a charismatic, organizational genius to emerge as a strongman to lead a united Europe.
Resurrection of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact
Throughout history, Europe has repeatedly formed pacts with Russia to secure its western border. With Europe and Russia both again on the rise, tensions between Moscow and Brussels are mounting. The Trumpet expects that these trends will force Europe and Russia to make some sort of deal in order to avoid or at least delay hostilities. A repeat of the 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact may be on the horizon.
Russian President Vladimir Putin manipulated Russia’s December 2 parliamentary elections to flood the Russian government with supporters. He then appointed the loyal Dmitry Medvedev as his preferred presidential successor as he contemplates how he wishes to rule Russia after next year’s presidential election. Russia has all but returned to authoritarian tsarist rule under Putin.
In December, Putin suspended the treaty that limits the number of Russian troops on the European border; he also deployed the Russian Navy back into Mediterranean waters for the first time since the Soviet era. All these strong-arm maneuvers are causing considerable concern in Europe.
Meanwhile, Europe and Russia remain in a standoff over Kosovo. Kosovo has said it will declare unilateral independence from Serbia early next year. Germany’s ambitions in the Balkans dictated the EU’s stance on the issue: Europe will support Kosovo. Russia will support Serbia. Neither side is ready to back down. This leaves two possibilities for the EU and Russia: war or pact.
Tensions over Russian energy imports into Europe; European fear of Russian troops on the EU’s southern and eastern borders; conflict over spheres of influence in Ukraine; the showdown over Kosovo—all of these portend a resurrected Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. With the Russian bear so active on the east side, Europe must secure a pact with Moscow before it can further pursue its many other ambitions.
Several German leaders are already laying the groundwork for such a treaty. Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder works for Russian oil-giant Gazprom; Germany’s Russophile vice chancellor, Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, met with Dmitry Medvedev after his nomination; and Edmund Stoiber visited Vladimir Putin in July. Stoiber has called for an EU-Russian free-trade zone and openly endorsed Russian opposition to the United States’ proposed military defense shield in Europe. He and others recognize that the EU needs to form a “strategic partnership” with Russia. Watch for this pact to solidify as both the EU and Russia continue to gain global power.
The Rise of Asia’s Military
The Indian external affairs minister, Pranab Mukherjee, has stated the nations of Asia need to cooperate in order to “make this century the century of Asia.” Asia has been migrating toward economic unity for years, but this year also saw the rise of military cooperation.
On August 7, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (sco) conducted the largest military exercise in its six-year history. Thousands of troops from Russia, China, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan met in Russia’s Volga-Urals military district to conduct anti-terrorism exercises. Many saw this exercise as the sco’s attempt to challenge nato as a regional power bloc.
Later in the year, China was involved in another military exercise. On December 20, troops from India and China conducted their first-ever joint military exercises. India and China have been historic rivals, and this martial cooperation was this year’s greatest visible sign of their warming relations. Their armies are the two largest on Earth. Cooperation among the Russian, Indian and Chinese militaries would make Asia one of the world’s most powerful military alliances—and the fact that biblical prophecy alludes to this alliance makes it an important trend to watch.
Israel’s Deadly Wound
As noted earlier, the world may have a lot to thank Israel for after its raid into Syria this year. Unfortunately, this was a rare demonstration of backbone amid a year of retreat and defeatism. Forty years after Israel’s Six Day War in 1967, Israel has lost the will to fight, and its enemies, emboldened by its shameful defeat in Lebanon last year, are growing more aggressive. Hamas seized control of the Gaza Strip in June and immediately began transforming the land Israel evacuated in 2005 into a fortress to use against the Jews. Hamas and Fatah have been divided since this time—leading many in the West to foolishly flood Fatah with aid and support in a move that is certain to backfire on Israel sometime soon.
Speculation about the division of Jerusalem was rife this year. The increasingly unpopular Israeli prime minister, Ehud Olmert, offered repeated concessions. Benjamin Netanyahu, whose popularity is growing as fast as Olmert’s is falling, insists that Israel remain intact. Watch for Israeli politics to shift right. We continue to expect violence to erupt over Jerusalem shortly.
Much of Israel’s peace policies revolved around the Annapolis peace conference. There, Israel and the U.S. sat down and talked with terrorist-sponsoring entities and nations that purpose to destroy Israel. “Besides an Iranian bomb, the greatest threat to Israel’s existence is diminished support from its long-time ally, the United States,” wrote the Trumpet. This second-worst threat materialized in November. Gerald Flurry wrote, “America made a watershed change in its foreign policy at Annapolis. History clearly shows us this will lead to a colossal disaster!” The U.S. deserted a staunch ally in favor of terrorist-harboring foes, leaving Israel little hope in the “peace” process.
Iran’s Victory
In January, left-wing Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi took office as Democrats swept into control of Congress. Hailed by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as “a victory for Iran,” the Democrat victory of November 2006 set the tone for America’s year. Mr. Flurry wrote that the election “reveals the desperate lack of will in our people more than any other single event.”
In April, Pelosi broadcasted this lack of will to the world, traveling to the Middle East and illegally conducting an alternative U.S. foreign policy. Her behavior sent a clear message to terrorist-harboring, freedom-hating regimes around the world: No need to fear or respect George Bush; the Democratic Party doesn’t.
Britain also sent a clear signal that it is not to be feared. In a flagrant act of war, Iran kidnapped 15 British servicemen in March. Instead of punishing Iran, the nation that once ruled the world’s greatest empire did nothing. The message was clear: Push us hard enough, and we’ll capitulate.
Another unequivocal message emerged from the U.S. in December, with a National Intelligence Estimate declaring that Iran had suspended its nuclear weapons program four years ago. This report, which Mr. Flurry called “a nation-destroying change in American foreign policy,” put enormous faith in the world’s greatest state sponsor of terror, following in the footsteps of Adolf Hitler’s appeasers in the 1930s. Iran proclaimed the report a victory. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has since announced plans to increase uranium enrichment 16-fold. America is coddling this avowed enemy of both Israel and itself in hopes that it will stop breeding violence in Iraq.
In the driver’s seat, Iran continues to expand its influence in the region. Most significantly, for the first time since 1979, a high-level Egyptian diplomat visited Iran. Both nations say relations will continue to improve. Watch for Iran and Egypt to move even closer together in the next year.
San Francisco Values
America’s slippage on the geopolitical front is matched by its domestic decline. Some of the biggest national news occurred on the economic front, which Trumpet columnist Robert Morley surveyed last week.
In addition, where the U.S. lacks the courage to attack its enemies, it makes up for in its vigorous aggression against the institution of family. In judicial news, a U.S. district judge this year ruled that the 1998 Child Online Protection Act was unconstitutional.
California has led the charge against family values, with a judicial ruling suggesting that even the phrase “family values” is hate speech. It then pressed home this assault by passing four anti-family laws, three of which criminalize behavior deemed discriminatory against transsexuals, bisexuals and homosexuals. The fourth law enables homosexuals to share a last name as if they were married.
“Much of the United States has been suffering from abnormally dry or drought conditions, and other weather disasters,” Mr. Flurry wrote in October. “However, at this point, California appears to be suffering most of all.” This once rich and prosperous state stands on the brink of ruin, leading the way for the rest of America.
Where Is It All Leading?
Reflecting on these events, it is hard to see much hope. We must face this fact: This year has brought the world 365 days closer to World War iii.
In a December column, Mr. Flurry quoted Gen. Douglas MacArthur on mankind’s one hope:
Men since the beginning of time have sought peace. … Military alliances, balances of powers, leagues of nations, all in turn failed, leaving the only path to be by way of the crucible of war. The utter destructiveness of war now blots out this alternative. We have had our last chance. If we will not devise some greater and more equitable system, our Armageddon will be at our door. The problem basically is theological and involves a spiritual recrudescence, an improvement of human character that will synchronize with our almost matchless advances in science, art, literature and all material and cultural developments of the past two thousand years. It must be of the spirit if we are to save the flesh.
Mr. Flurry concluded:
General MacArthur was right—“we have had our last chance”! And we have refused to deal with the cause. The indescribable nightmare is about to explode! Whether we listen or not, God’s purpose is being worked out. Those who heed God’s Word are promised protection from a nuclear holocaust. The worst thing we can do is hide from reality. We really do live in a world where human survival is our number-one problem.
We must not hide from reality; we must face up to it. Individually, to bring about the “improvement of human character” that is needed to “save the flesh,” the only solution is a complete and sincere turn to God.
Moreover, 2007’s geopolitically dangerous events should provide us with much hope in so far as they are proof of fulfilled prophecy. By these events, we may know that the Second Coming of Jesus Christ is near (Matthew 24:32-33). And that is where it is all leading: to the establishment of God’s government on Earth, which will result in peace.