Egypt and Israel: the Geographic Reality

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Egypt and Israel: the Geographic Reality

How Egypt and Iran’s rapprochement will affect the southern Levant—and Israeli national security.

The Old Testament furnishes some important lessons in international relations. Take the relationship between the ancient Israelites and the Philistines for example, described in the books of Samuel. The Philistines were the archenemies of the Israelites—the Hebrews’ top national security threat for about 400 years.

The prolonged strength and success of the Philistines was largely a function of their geographic footprint: They dominated the coastal lowlands of the south Levant, as well as the eastern Mediterranean. It wasn’t until the faith-driven leadership of King David in the 10th century b.c. that the Israelites were finally able to dislodge the Philistines.

The geographic reality evident in this account still applies today: The national security of the Jewish state depends largely on the entity that controls and dominates the southern Levant and eastern Mediterranean.

Here is what Dr. George Friedman from Stratfor wrote a week after Hamas overran the Gaza Strip this past June: “The only thing that could threaten the survival of Israel, apart from a nuclear barrage, would be a shift in position of neighboring states. …

The single most important neighbor Israel has is Egypt” (June 19, emphasis mine throughout).

Even modern history proves this true. Israel’s national security was dangerously precarious in the 1950s and 1960s, for example, when Egypt under President Gamal Abdul Nasser was at the vanguard of Arab hostility toward Israel. This changed in the late 1970s, when President Anwar Sadat reversed Nasser’s strategy at the Camp David Accords and made a “peace” treaty with Israel.

The Israel-Egypt peace treaty has been the backbone of the national security equation of the Jewish state for nearly 30 years! Egypt as a geographic and geopolitical entity is a deciding factor in Israel’s national security.

What does this have to do with Iran? Everything!

Since the late 1970s, Egypt’s comparatively warm overtures toward Israel have, to a significant extent, been a function of Cairo’s political and ideological divorce from Tehran, which occurred during the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran and was sealed by the Iranian-orchestrated assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1981. When ties disintegrated between the two, the Egyptian government erased its name and number from Tehran’s little black book and essentially severed itself as a friend of the Iranian regime.

To say this pleased the Israelis is to put it mildly. Egypt’s antipathy toward Iran has been a pillar of Israel’s national security equation and a tremendous source of national confidence. The belief that Egyptian-Iranian relations are non-existent has enabled Israeli security officials to sleep at night. Tehran might have Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, they think as they nod off, but we’ve got Egypt. We’ll be fine.

Now those peaceful dreams are being replaced with a horrifying new reality: A major geopolitical realignment is unfolding between Iran and Egypt, and these countries are edging toward resuming full diplomatic relations with each other and enjoying the benefits of a stronger friendship.

Few things could gut the national security policy of the Jewish state more completely and painfully than a strong Iranian-Egyptian alliance!

Last week, Egyptian Deputy Foreign Minister Hussein Derar made the first official visit by an Egyptian official to Iran since diplomatic ties between the two countries were severed in 1979. During his trip, Derar met with Iran’s foreign minister in Tehran to discuss bilateral relations between Egypt and Iran as well as other regional and international issues.

These discussions weren’t the first indication of a thaw in relations.

In May, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Tehran was ready to restore ties with Egypt, and even open an Iranian embassy in Cairo. Then on September 18, Iranian delegates met with Egyptian officials in Cairo, and both sides officially agreed to resume dialogue. In November, Iran’s Minister of Industry and Mines Ali Akbar Mehrabian told reporters, as he was about to depart for Egypt, that “this is a turning point in Iran-Egypt relations.”

Talks about expanding ties, particularly trade relations, have continued since then. Even Iran’s president is dishing out complements to Egypt. The day before Derar’s visit to Tehran last week, Ahmadinejad stressed that “Iran and Egypt are two brotherly nations,” noting that now that Egypt and Iran are enjoying a cultural and economic relationship, only full political ties have to be restored to “pave the grounds for massive cooperation.”

Why would Iran’s president seek “massive cooperation” with Egypt? Just glance at a map of the Middle East—or take a moment to consider the Philistines’ geographic position in relation to the Israelites.

Plans have already been made for Iranian Parliament Speaker Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel to visit Cairo in January, and Ahmadinejad himself has expressed his desire to visit Egypt as soon as full diplomatic ties are restored. With all this friendly rhetoric flying and officials from both states busy scurrying back and forth, it’s only a matter of time before full diplomatic ties are restored between Iran and Egypt.

This could easily happen in 2008.

The political and economic cohesion growing between Egypt and Iran is deeply significant, though in a sense it is only catching up with the religious and ideological realignment that has taken root in recent years, evidenced by the penchant Egypt has developed for backing Iranian-sponsored terrorists.

Witness the increased unhindered flow of terrorists and weapons in and out of Gaza via the Egyptian border. Despite multiple agreements and promises to Israel, the Egyptian government is doing little to curb these activities. Just recently, Egypt broke an agreement with Israel when it opened the Rafah border terminal to allow 1,700 Palestinians to travel to Mecca for Hajj. According to the Israel Defense Forces, “up to a couple of dozen Hamas terrorists were among the so-called pilgrims Egypt allowed out of the Gaza Strip” (Jerusalem Post, December 6).

“This is a clear breach of agreements we have made with the Egyptians,” a senior diplomatic official said, in reference to agreements made between Israel and Egypt in November 2005 (ibid.). This wasn’t the first time Egypt has broken its promises to not open its border to the Palestinians. In October, Egypt allowed 85 Hamas terrorists to cross back into Gaza; other reports indicate that many of these terrorists are either going to or returning from training camps in Iran.

In 1981, peace-loving Anwar Sadat called the Iranian Ayatollah Khomeini a “lunatic” for giving birth to Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism in the 1979 Iranian Revolution. Sadat’s powerful remark got him killed, but you can be sure it had a reassuring effect on Israel! We don’t see this kind of language emanating from Egypt today. To the contrary, Egypt has become an indirect backer of Iranian-sponsored terrorism against Israel. These signs are anything but reassuring for Israel.

What will happen when Iran and Egypt restore full diplomatic ties? Cairo will likely transform from an indirect supporter of radical terrorism to a full-blown terrorist-sponsoring state.

Hamas’s shocking military success in Gaza recently was largely thanks to Egypt. According to Israeli Maj. Gen. Yom Tov Samia, the Palestinians have smuggled into Gaza more than 30,000 rifles in the past two years, more than 6 million rounds of ammunition, more than 230 tons of explosives and a multitude of anti-tank missiles. According to General Samia, this build-up has happened because “the Egyptian police and army have not yet received a clear order to block infiltration or smuggling from Sinai into Gaza.”

Clearly, the Egyptian government is more loyal to the terrorist cause than it is to keeping its promises to Israel!

In fact, Cairo’s support of Hamas runs so deep, even Palestinian Authority leaders are worried. “Alarmed by the apparent rapprochement between Egypt and Hamas, Palestinian Authority security officials in Ramallah on Monday criticized the Egyptian authorities for failing to take ‘real action’ to halt the smuggling of weapons into the Gaza Strip,” reported the Jerusalem Post on Tuesday. Palestinian leaders are accusing Egyptian soldiers and army officers of involvement in the smuggling business, and are complaining that Egypt’s support of Hamas goes against its “declared policy of opposing Hamas’s violent takeover of the Gaza Strip last June” (ibid.).

Note that: Even Palestinian leaders are alarmed by Egypt’s working relationship with Hamas. Egypt’s penchant for the terrorist enterprise of Hamas (which is financed and supported by Iran) resonates across the spectrum of Egyptian society—a fact unsurprising considering that Hamas was conceived by Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood in the 1980s.

When the Muslim Brotherhood captured 88 seats in the Egyptian government in parliamentary elections in December 2005, we explained the significance of this event to our readers in our article “Why You Should Watch Egypt.”

“Soon, the MB could gain control of Egypt,” we wrote. “President Mubarak is in his 70s and his health is ailing; clearly, he won’t be on the scene forever. … As the MB grows more popular and powerful, it will strengthen its ties with Islamic powers throughout the region—especially Iran. … Should the MB ever take control, Iran and Egypt would cement a strong alliance. Such a relationship would prove deadly for American hopes for peace in the Middle East. Together, Iran and Egypt would establish Islamic control over the whole of the region.”

This is a trend worth monitoring: If the “moderate” Mubarak government is prepared to improve ties with the Jew-hating government of President Ahmadinejad, how much more eager will an Islamist administration in Egypt be to jump in bed with Iran?

It has become brutally obvious over the past decade that Israel is being ambushed by an arc of Islamic hatred that begins in Syria and Lebanon, extends through Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, and culminates with Hamas in Gaza. The fact that Egypt has not been closely aligned with these states has been a rare source of encouragement for Israel.

The restoration of ties between Egypt and Iran will fill out the arc of Islamic hatred surrounding Israel!

On one level, watching what has happened to Israel in recent weeks has been disheartening. First it was ambushed at Annapolis, then it was blindsided by Washington’s nie report, and now it is readily apparent that a dangerous alliance is about to be formed between Egypt and Iran.

But on another, it is remarkable to consider how this fulfills a biblically based forecast the Trumpet’s editor in chief made 15 years ago. “Daniel 11:42 implies that Egypt will be allied with the king of the south, or Iran,” Gerald Flurry wrote in his booklet The King of the South. “This prophecy indicates that there would be a far-reaching change in Egyptian politics!”

A Higher Power has not only revealed in His Word the outline of hundreds of major and minor events unfolding right now, in this time leading up to Christ’s Second Coming—but He is also bringing these events to pass in order to demonstrate how He rules in the kingdom of men (Daniel 4:17). As bad as the news may be in the short term for the nation of Israel, there is tremendous hope in that widely overlooked reality!