As a UN-mandated cease-fire goes into effect this week, it is worth stepping back and considering the net effect of the war in Israel this past month.

One, the fact that Hezbollah managed to start a war and then evade being destroyed by Israel is hugely significant. This terrorist group has lobbed more than 4,000 missiles into Israel since July 12. Israel brashly said it would respond by extirpating Hezbollah, but as the weeks wore on and its measured strategy failed, it downgraded its war aim several times to the point of being willing to accept the promise of an international force patrolling southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah’s ability to sustain its rocket attacks and directly combat Israeli soldiers, even in the face of Israel’s consistent bombing and invasion—all while waging a canny media propaganda campaign against Israel—demonstrates the group’s strategic maturity, its access to a reliable supply of sophisticated weaponry and artillery, and its high level of competency in guerrilla-type warfare. Hezbollah has proven itself well organized and politically well connected.

However, the civilian casualty count in Israel was quite low—fewer than 40. This raises the probability that Hezbollah’s offensive was less about killing Israelis than it was about laying the groundwork for future, deadlier operations.

The nature of Hezbollah’s rocket launches—being numerous and generally inaccurate—achieved a number of strategic benefits for the terrorist group that are far greater than the loss of life of a few Israeli citizens.

First and most importantly, they provoked Israel into a war that exposed the weakness of will in the current Israeli leadership. Already beleaguered by crises—an emotional change in leadership after the fall of Ariel Sharon in January; Hamas taking over the Palestinian government; the recently evacuated Gaza Strip becoming a launching pad for Arab rocket attacks onto Jewish territory—the war in Lebanon stretched Israel’s military forces; revived the dormant Israeli peace movement; sent hundreds of thousands of Israelis fleeing; and exposed division between the country’s political and military leadership. All the while, political pressure on Israel from the international community has visibly risen.

Not a bad set of achievements for the forces of Islamist extremism. Hezbollah’s missiles have manifestly chipped away at the willpower and political, mental and physical fortitude of the Israeli government, military and people.

Could Hezbollah, the Palestinian terrorist groups, Syria and Iran be in a better position? Watch for these entities, especially Iran, to exploit Israel’s exhaustion. The more exhausted Israel becomes, the more energized and excited its enemies grow.

At the beginning of January—when Ariel Sharon was still prime minister and Israeli politics relatively stable; when Hezbollah was quietly burrowed in Lebanon’s landscape; before Hamas had taken over the Palestinian leadership—Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry wrote a letter to certain Trumpet subscribers in which he warned that a crisis of massive proportions could erupt in Israel by the end of 2006. That letter appeared largely unedited in the March Trumpet edition. In it he wrote, “You need to watch Jerusalem as never before. We are going to see half of that city fall very soon. It could happen this year—2006!” Based on a prophecy in Zechariah 14:2, he outlined a specific event about to occur in Israel: the Palestinians taking half of Jerusalem.

Iran, which sponsors Hezbollah and has strong ties to Hamas, has long held the goal of taking control over the Holy City. Could developments over the past six months, culminating in Hezbollah’s war with Israel, be preparations for Iran and/or the Palestinians to conquer half of Jerusalem?

We must keep our eyes on Iran. Iran will be central to any crisis that occurs in Israel. “Over the years, Tehran has worked hard to position its henchmen in and around Israel,” Mr. Flurry wrote in the Trumpet. “Its efforts are paying off. Hamas now controls the strategic Gaza Strip and major parts of the West Bank—and dominates Palestinian politics! Hezbollah has grown into a highly-organized, well-armed, well-financed organization in neighboring Lebanon. To the south, in Egypt, the Iran-friendly Muslim Brotherhood is growing increasingly popular.

“Iran has a passion to seize control of Jerusalem—and now it has Israel surrounded! The Jewish nation is being ‘besieged’ (Deuteronomy 28:52).

“Iran has surrounded and infiltrated Israel. Now the city of Jerusalem is on the verge of destruction!” Perhaps nothing demonstrates Iran’s new boldness better than its having unleashed Hezbollah in this latest war. And with Israel now being reigned in by the international community in the form of a UN cease-fire—something Hezbollah and Iran would only abide by if it suited their long-term objective, and only for a short time—Iran can gear up to fight another day. Watch Iran’s designs on Jerusalem!

The crisis in Israel is not about to end. It is about to intensify!

That Iran wants Jerusalem isn’t something the Trumpet is alone in believing. Princeton professor and respected Islam scholar Bernard Lewis wrote an article on the subject printed in the August 8Wall Street Journal. Notice these excerpts:

It seems increasingly likely that the Iranians either have or very soon will have nuclear weapons at their disposal, thanks to their own researches (which began some 15 years ago), to some of their obliging neighbors, and to the ever-helpful rulers of North Korea. The language used by Iranian President Ahmadinejad would seem to indicate the reality and indeed the imminence of this threat.

Further on Mr. Lewis showed that sobering religious beliefs underpin the rhetoric and actions of President Ahmadinejad (emphasis ours).

In Islam, as in Judaism and Christianity, there are certain beliefs concerning the cosmic struggle at the end of time—Gog and Magog, anti-Christ, Armageddon, and for Shiite Muslims, the long awaited return of the Hidden Imam, ending in the final victory of the forces of good over evil, however these may be defined. Mr. Ahmadinejad and his followers clearly believe that this time is now, and that the terminal struggle has already begun and is indeed well advanced. It may even have a date, indicated by several references by the Iranian president to giving his final answer to the U.S. about nuclear development by August 22. This was at first reported as “by the end of August,” but Mr. Ahmadinejad’s statement was more precise.What is the significance of August 22? This year, August 22 corresponds, in the Islamic calendar, to the 27th day of the month of Rajab of the year 1427. This, by tradition, is the night when many Muslims commemorate the night flight of the prophet Muhammad on the winged horse Buraq, first to “the farthest mosque,” usually identified with Jerusalem, and then to heaven and back (c.f., Koran XVII.1). This might well be deemed an appropriate date for the apocalyptic ending of Israel and if necessary of the world. It is far from certain that Mr. Ahmadinejad plans any such cataclysmic events precisely for August 22. But it would be wise to bear the possibility in mind.

Is it coincidence that Ahmadinejad, a leader yearning to usher in the apocalypse, has decided that he will reveal his final answer to the UN about his nuclear developments on August 22? Several news sources have drawn attention to the possibility of Iran sparking a crisis on this date, perhaps even making a move on Jerusalem. As Mr. Lewis noted, August 22 is a date worth watching.

Whether something happens on this specific day or not, you need to be watching Iran and its ambitions regarding Jerusalem.

Everything is gearing toward Iran and radical Islamists igniting a broader and more destructive crisis in Israel and specifically Jerusalem. This is something the Trumpet warned about earlier this year, and something that Hezbollah’s rockets have laid the groundwork for.

The Trumpet has said it before, but it is worth repeating: Watch Jerusalem.