Middle East

Violence erupted across Lebanon Thursday as Hezbollah anti-government demonstrations entered their second day. The protests come in response to the Lebanese government’s announcement on May 6 that it would dismantle Hezbollah’s communication network, a move that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said was “tantamount to a declaration of war.” Nasrallah emphasized in a press conference that Hezbollah’s communication network was part of its resistance against Israel. Hezbollah is trying to get the Western-backed Lebanese government to back down, even though, as Stratfor points out, the government has no real means of dismantling Hezbollah’s communication network in any case.

Israel’s internal politics are once again in crisis. It seems Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has stumbled from one crisis to another since coming to power. Police investigators met with Olmert on May 2 about what is rumored to be serious charges filed against him over alleged business dealings and bribes. Whether or not the charges are founded, they are further destabilizing an already precarious government, with the conservatives indicating they will take advantage of the situation. “We will act with all our determination to topple the government,” Likud Knesset member Silvan Shalom said on Israeli Radio. “The Israeli government is drowning in corruption.” If the investigation gains traction, it will make it extremely difficult for Olmert to effectively lead his country—if not force his resignation—and there appears to be no other leader in his Kadima party capable of taking over. Watch for a possible resurgence of the conservative Likud party as Olmert’s party is further weakened. Our November/December 2007 Trumpet cover story, “Can This Man Save Israel?”, details why we are expecting to see a return to more conservative government in Israel.

Meanwhile, the May 5 Jerusalem Post reported that Israel-European relations are at their highest point in a long time: “Relations are now probably better than at any time since the early 1980s. … Today, the governments of the four main European countries—France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom—are all quite friendly toward Israel, with the first three being especially so.” This surge of European goodwill toward Israel, however, has mostly been the work of certain political leaders. Among the actual populace of Europe, anti-Semitism and anti-Zionism is still a growing trend. Because of this, the current friendly relations between Europe and Israel are setting the stage for one of the greatest double-crosses in history, as our booklet Jerusalem in Prophecy explains.

Israel’s current seemingly strong relationship with Egypt is also destined to turn sour. On May 1, an undersea pipeline began transporting natural gas from Egypt to Israel, essentially making Cairo the only direct energy supplier for the State of Israel. The pipeline will make Israel far more dependent on Egypt—not a wise move considering the increasing popularity of Islamists in that country. Bible prophecy indicates that Egypt will soon be allied with one of Israel’s most dangerous foes, Iran.

Upon the installation of the new Pakistani coalition government in late March, theTrumpet.com wrote that the alliance between the United States and Pakistan was “effectively over.” Stratfor now reports that, due to Pakistan’s lack of cooperation in denying the Taliban sanctuary inside its borders, the U.S. is pursuing a new policy: taking things into its own hands. “Ever since 9/11, the United States has been continuously pressing Pakistan to stop the jihadists using the country as its global headquarters, but Washington has not pressed Pakistan too hard to avoid destabilizing the government of Pervez Musharraf. With the situation in Afghanistan deteriorating, the United States has decided that stability of the Pakistani state can no longer be an obstacle to tackling the Taliban” (May 6). If the U.S. cuts the Pakistani government out of the picture and pursues direct action against the Taliban within Pakistan, it may make progress in Afghanistan—but if, in the process, Pakistan, which is barely holding together politically as it is, descends into chaos, there is no telling where the jihadist insurgency in that country will end. Being that Pakistan is a nuclear power, chaos and the rise of radical Islam is an especially dangerous mix. Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry pointed to this in his January commentary, “Pakistan and the Shah of Iran.”

In other news this week, the Iraqi Defense Ministry reports the leader of al Qaeda in Iraq has been arrested—and Agence France Presse reports that an important al Qaeda leader, who has been described as the “right-hand man” in Europe to Osama bin Laden, has been released on bail in the UK.

Europe

The European Union needs an army, according to German Foreign Minister Frank Walter Steinmeier. The EU needs to accelerate efforts to integrate its armed forces, with a European army as the final goal, he said. Steinmeier stated that the Lisbon Treaty allows for a group of nations to move ahead with their defense policy. He said that he had already spoken with his French counterpart, Bernard Kouchner, on concrete military cooperation. Peter Struck, former defense minister and now head of the Social Democratic Party, agreed with Steinmeier. “There will still be opposition to the idea of a European army as there once was against the single currency, the euro,” he said. “But single states are no longer able to handle the threats of today.” Watch for a strong military force to emerge from Europe as nations begin to combine their armies.

The EU may once again have a problem in Ireland. Ireland’s largest labor union has added its voice to a growing crowd criticizing the Lisbon Treaty. Recent polls show that negative public opinion about the treaty is rising. With 35 percent of the electorate supporting the treaty, 31 percent opposing it and 34 percent undecided, it’s unclear who will win the vote on June 12. Ireland briefly held up the forward progress of the EU back in 2001, when it rejected the Nice Treaty and Europe had to wait while Ireland conducted another referendum. Following a strong pro-EU campaign, Irish voters chose the “right” answer the second time around and voted “Yes.” It is unclear what would happen if Ireland failed to approve the Lisbon Treaty. It could lead to some kind of “two-speed” Europe, where a smaller group of nations move forward with integration while the rest of Europe stands on the sidelines. Ultimately, a block of 10 nations, or groups of nations, with a strong unified military will emerge. For more information, read our article “Are We Wrong About Europe?” from the December 2003 Trumpet.

Asia

Reflecting the deteriorating relationship between the United States and Taiwan, Director Stephen Young of the de facto American Embassy in Taipei announced on Thursday that the U.S. has denied Taiwanese President-elect Ma Ying-jeou’s request to visit America before his inauguration later this month. This denial is nothing short of an American kowtow to Beijing, which fiercely objects to anything that even remotely appears as third-party recognition of Taiwanese sovereignty. The Taiwanese are being forced into the Chinese mold, and it is happening because of a pitifully weak-willed America. Meanwhile, Chinese President Hu Jintao has been in Japan playing ping-pong, giving away panda bears, and signing a landmark treaty. The treaty Hu signed with Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda on Wednesday pledges enhanced cooperation and annual visits between the leaders of the two nations. Fukuda’s pro-Asian policies are providing an excellent opportunity for Japanese-Chinese cooperation as Japan moves toward joining the growing Asian power bloc.

In Russia, Vladimir Putin transferred his presidential position to his protégé Dmitry Medvedev on Wednesday. Yet, although Medvedev now holds the title of Russian president, Putin retains the loyalty of the Russian Federal Security Services (secret police), the loyalty of at least 70 percent of the Russian legislature, and power over most of the regional governors. These three positions of influence, combined with his new titles of prime minister of Russia and chairman of United Russia, will ensure that Putin remains the master and Medvedev remains the puppet. Russia is returning to totalitarianism. Sooner or later, Europe and the Western world are going to be forced to take note of that.

With inflation on the rise in India, Indians have been outraged by a brief remark made by U.S. President George W. Bush about the role of India in the global food crisis. While speaking to employees from a high-tech firm in St. Louis last weekend, Bush commented that rising food prices may be in part due to an increased demand for higher quality food in prospering nations like India and China. “When you start getting wealth, you start demanding better nutrition and better food,” Bush said. “And so demand is high, and that causes the price to go up.” Indians are accusing America of hypocrisy because of the role American food consumption and American biofuels have played in escalating the food shortage.

Africa, South America

PetroChina has announced a deal with Petroleos de Venezuela to build a refinery in the Chinese province of Guangdong capable of producing 400,000 barrels of oil per day—22 percent of Venezuela’s total oil export. This will force President Hugo Chávez to sell oil to the Chinese at a drastically reduced rate while reducing his dependence on the U.S. as a destination. Chávez can’t realistically afford to drop the U.S. yet, but he gets a little closer with every deal.

A top U.S. diplomat has expressed concerns that Iran might use its influence in Latin America to undermine U.S. security. “We are worried that in the event of a conflict with Iran, that it would attempt to use its presence in the region to conduct such activities against us,” said Thomas Shannon, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for the Western Hemisphere.

In Zimbabwe, officials have announced that neither candidate received a majority in the presidential election, though opposition candidate Morgan Tsvangirai led the tally with just under half the votes. No runoff date has been announced. In preparation, though, Robert Mugabe’s militia has displaced 40,000 workers from farms to prevent them from voting against him, according to a report from the General Agriculture and Plantation Workers Union of Zimbabwe. According to the Associated Press, the “report details beatings, burned huts, and intimidation. One former farm worker was beaten with iron bars and sticks, and another farmer was strangled with a wire, the group said.” More than 140 farms have been invaded since the election. Officials also arrested the editor of an independent Zimbabwean newspaper for publishing “false statements prejudicial to the state.” It’s clear that Mugabe will pull out all the stops to retain power. For more about the dangers posed by this situation, read “The Unseen Danger in Political Violence” on theTrumpet.com.

Anglo-America

On Thursday, the United States House of Representatives passed a bill for bailing out homeowners with poisoned mortgages. The bill includes $300 billion in federal loan guarantees as well as tax credits and financial regulation. “This is about trying to reach out to people who have been savaged in many ways by this economy,” House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said during debate. The Trumpet gave early warning, citing the housing market’s fast and loose dealings, in “The Next Market to Crash,” back in 2003. At best, the new legislation, which the White House intends to veto, would serve as a temporary and inadequate bandage to this greed-based gaping economic wound.

The Wall Street Journal reports that rising commodity prices are not a bubble, but the result of economic basics, including soaring demand. “The global surge in food and energy prices is being driven primarily by fundamental market conditions, rather than an investment bubble, say the majority of economists in the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey. Fifty-one percent of the respondents said demand from China and India was the prime factor in soaring energy prices, and 41 percent said the demand was the chief contributor to rising food costs. Constraint in supply was cited second most often; 20 percent blamed supply problems for higher food prices, and 15 percent for increasing energy prices” (May 9).

Ex-inmates of the U.S. prison camp in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, are turning up as suicide bombers and attackers in Iraq. American commanders and in some cases the attackers’ families have confirmed that former detainees are coming back to bite the United States, including Abdullah Salim Ali al-Ajmi, a Kuwaiti who was released in 2005 and went through Syria to Iraq where he exploded himself in Mosul.

American leadership continues to crumble morally. The Washington Times has obtained secret memos that indicate Hillary Clinton, who is currently seeking the Democrat presidential nomination, “concealed information and misled a federal grand jury” about her business dealings in Arkansas (May 8). Also this week, Vito Fossella, a Republican New York congressman, admitted to fathering a child in an adulterous relationship three years ago.