Is Iran’s Regime Finished?
Is Iran’s Regime Finished?
He was huddling underground in a bunker. Dozens of his top advisers, generals and weapons of mass destruction experts were dead. His surface-to-air missile batteries were missing in action, and his precious nuclear facilities were being bombarded.
His worst enemy had done all this—and wasn’t done yet.
Aged, targeted, hiding, the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran started thinking about who would replace him. He may have wondered whether they, or even the Islamist regime itself, would survive.
This was Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in June. The preceding days had been disastrous for him and his regime—and triumphant for the State of Israel.
The major question hanging in the smoke-filled air then is the same one that remains right now: What will happen next—not just to Khamenei, not just to Iran’s nuclear weapons development, not even just to Iran’s regime, but most importantly, to Iran’s violent foreign policy?
Blow After Blow
Hamas’s brutal attack on Oct. 7, 2023, lit a fire in the blood of the Jewish state. When Islamist terrorists, supported by Iran, poured from Gaza into quiet Israeli communities and stabbed, shot, tortured, raped, burned and mass-murdered some 1,200 people, Israel responded with ferocity. Israel Defense Forces pounded Gaza with air strikes and a ground invasion to break Hamas’s power, destroying its arsenal and infrastructure, 17,000 of its fighters and many of its top leaders, including Yahya and Mohammed Sinwar.
When Hezbollah entered the fray, Israel executed its fiercest attacks on the organization in two decades. It crippled Iran’s primary regional proxy by demolishing its weapons and decimating its fighters and its leadership, including Hassan Nasrallah. The idf also struck other Islamist terrorist targets in Lebanon, Syria and even Iran itself with spectacular success.
An additional blow to Iran came in December 2024, when a swift rebel offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham toppled Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria, collapsing Iran’s critical logistical corridor for arming Hezbollah and other groups. The cohesion and strategic depth of what had been Iran’s “axis of resistance” through Syria, Lebanon and Gaza was shattered.
But these victories were also preparations for something bigger. Intelligence reported that Iran was on the brink of nuclear breakout. Israel responded by setting a decades-long war plan in motion.
On June 13, covert operators who had infiltrated positions on the ground deep inside Iran long beforehand began striking Iranian missile launch batteries with explosive drones. Meanwhile, more than 200 idf warplanes roared in waves into Iranian airspace and struck a hundred targets. Nuclear facilities, armaments factories, airfields, radar stations, bunkers, bases, launchers and domestic security facilities were blasted into shards and smoke.
At the same time, specific Iranian commanders were targeted. The chief of staff of Iran’s military, members of the general staff and the top commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were killed, including the head of the “Palestine Corps,” linked to Hamas, and the leader of the entire irgc. Israel killed Iran’s nuclear negotiator and at least half a dozen top nuclear weapons scientists. These and other Iranian officials were killed inside Iran directly by Israel—which was supposed to be Iran’s victim, not its conqueror. “Destruction of Israel” was the literal name of a countdown clock in Palestine Square in the Iranian capital city. Israeli strikes destroyed it too.
Iran managed a feeble retaliation, sending drones toward Israel and launching hundreds of missiles into Israeli airspace—aimed at civilians. Most of these were blown up by expensive interceptors. Some few soared past the defenses and hit populated areas, damaging residential and commercial buildings. Israelis were killed in their beds, in their safe rooms, in hospitals. Yet for all the terror Iran caused, the death toll in Israel was less than 30.
The speedy success of Israel’s attack was breathtaking. And the fact that Hamas and Hezbollah had been neutralized beforehand altered the conflict completely. Iran’s response would have been many times deadlier had those proxies remained near full strength. It was as though their neutering had been part of Israel’s plan to attack Iran all along.
However, ultimate success in eliminating the Iranian nuclear threat hinged on help from the United States. Israel needed America’s B-2 heavy bombers and bunker-buster bombs to reach Iran’s underground nuclear facilities.
The morning of Sunday, June 22, the U.S. provided just that. B-2s dropped 30,000-pound munitions on the heavily fortified Fordow site and Natanz while cruise missiles from submarines targeted Natanz and Isfahan. Trump, in a televised speech from the White House, declared the strikes a complete success and warned that if Iran did not seek peace, “future attacks would be far greater and a lot easier.”
The cumulative firepower directed against Iran was awesome. And amid it all, talk went beyond simply degrading Iran’s nuclear capabilities and turned into fierce calls for the Israelis, the Americans or the Iranians to bring down the entire Islamist regime.
Benjamin Netanyahu openly advocated for this outcome, urging the Iranian people to throw off the oppression of the dictatorship and seize the moment for freedom. At one point, Israel had an opportunity to assassinate the supreme leader, but Trump vetoed the plan. Had he given Israel free rein, it seems Khamenei would be gone.
Exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi called on Iran’s military and security forces to join a national uprising. He issued a video to all Iranians, saying, “Come to the streets. End this regime. … The regime’s repressive apparatus is falling apart. Khamenei has hidden himself underground like a frightened mouse. He has lost control. … The future is bright, and together, we will pass through this sharp curve in history.”
For 46 years now, since the Islamic Revolution, Iran has been living in a fever-dream of repression, ideological extremism and violence. Is it about to wake up? Is the octogenarian’s supreme leadership about to end? Is Iran about to return to the era of the shah—its pre-revolution, pro-Western glory days?
It is pleasant to imagine. But don’t count on it.
Iran in Prophecy
Biblical prophecy says much about Iran’s role in the end time. The Trumpet’s editor in chief has pointed to these prophecies for over three decades. Gerald Flurry wrote the booklet The King of the South back in 1996—before Iran had any real power beyond the nation. Daniel 11:40-43, clarified and amplified by other prophetic passages, indicate that Iran will be a formidable power leading a confederation of nations. Its role as this end-time “king of the south” informs us of how we can expect recent dramatic events to unfold.
For years, the Islamic Republic has increasingly showed itself able to fill this prophesied role. The Islamofascist regime of Khamenei—with its fanatical ambition to spread its radicalism, its recruitment of proxies, its projection of power into other nations, its pursuit of weapons of mass destruction, its pushy belligerence—all fit the prophetic descriptions ideally.
Even Iran’s loss of influence in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria was anticipated—not by experts but by prophets. Mr. Flurry has foretold for decades, based on specific Bible prophecies, that each of these would be stripped from Iran’s control. Daniel 11 shows that Iran’s alliances would shift to include Egypt, Libya and “Ethiopia” (likely comprising the nations bordering the Red Sea).
However, a crippled Iran with a fallen regime would be far less likely to carry out the work of this “king.” A nation too weak to command respect from neighbors seeking to rally around a strong, ascendant power would not fulfill the prophecy. A regime lacking the weapons to push and provoke other nations into war would not. The return of a pre-revolutionary, pro-Western Iran certainly would not.
How, then, will a radical Iran emerge from its current tribulation with the power and aggression this prophecy describes?
Obliterated?
After President Trump ordered bombings on Iran, his political opponents and even many Republicans accused him of warmongering. In truth, his strike highlighted the opposite. He likes declaring victory—not making war.
Within two days of America dropping bombs, Trump unilaterally announced a ceasefire. He labeled the conflict the “12-day war” and claimed that Iran’s nuclear program was “totally and completely obliterated.” He ignored Iran’s retaliatory measures and offered the nation a bright future. President Trump was eager to put the whole nasty business behind him as quickly as possible.
But the Iran quandary isn’t going away. As enthralling as the notion may be that this regional powerhouse was neutralized by 12 days of mostly aerial attacks, it ignores history and defies logic.
First, how much of extremist Iran remains intact? What Israel and America did was not all-out war. Not the ruin of the regime or the assassination of Khamenei. Not the destruction of Iranian conventional forces. Not even the obliteration of the nuclear program.
Even the three main nuclear enrichment sites may be more intact than initially thought. Despite Trump’s claims, the true extent of destruction to Iran’s nuclear capabilities is unclear. Iran’s state media reported no significant contamination or casualties. The International Atomic Energy Agency and Saudi Arabia reported no increase in radiation levels. No nuclear accidents were reported.
Israeli intelligence variously said Iran’s program was set back “several years” or “two years.” A preliminary report from the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s intelligence arm, concluded that U.S. strikes “only set Iran’s nuclear program back by a few months.” The White House strongly disputed the dia’s findings, calling them “flat-out wrong” and alleging leaks by disgruntled intelligence officials. Time will tell.
Iran also claimed it had evacuated key materials prior to the attack. Satellite imagery showed 16 trucks leaving Fordow on June 19, three days before America bombed it. These trucks likely took Iran’s 60 percent enriched uranium and scattered it throughout the country.
One place uranium may have gone to is Pickaxe Mountain, also known as Kūh-e Kolang Gaz Lā, about 90 miles south of Fordow. It is believed to be the location of another nuclear facility currently under construction. “After the devastating strikes, Iran’s potential back-up plan may lie in this ultra-secure facility that satellite imagery shows has been secretly expanded with new fortifications around what appears to be a uranium enrichment site,” the Telegraph reported. “[I]ts underground chambers extend even deeper—potentially beyond 100 meters beneath the surface compared with Fordow’s 60-to-90-meter depth.” Reuel Marc Gerecht, resident scholar at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the Telegraph that the Pickaxe complex “is intended to give the clerical regime a nuclear weapons site that even the U.S. Air Force would have difficulty destroying with its largest conventional bombs.”
Dr. Becky Alexis-Martin, an expert in the development of nuclear weapons from the University of Bradford, warned that “if fissile uranium has not been destroyed or seized, then rebuilding may arise more rapidly than we expect. … Iran could rebuild its nuclear weapons program far more rapidly, even if large enrichment plants have been successfully destroyed, by smaller, covert sites to complete the enrichment process. In this scenario, Iran could produce enough 90 percent weapons grade uranium for a nuclear weapon in a couple of months—and without further intervention—could possess a nuclear warhead by this time next year.”
In his speech, President Trump seemed to acknowledge that there were many more targets the U.S. could hit, but in his hasty ceasefire, those threats were overlooked.
Past military strikes on Iran have strengthened its determination to develop nuclear weapons, largely as a deterrent against future attacks. If its nuclear program remains even partially intact, the regime’s urgency to finish weaponizing it will likely be even more urgent.
One thing is certain: Iran’s leaders have no intention of changing course.
Defiant
In a televised message on June 26, his first public remarks after the ceasefire, Khamenei did not express remorse or a change of heart. He declared victory. “The Zionist regime, with all its noise and claims, was nearly brought to its knees,” he said, claiming Israel had been “crushed” by Iranian strikes. He said America had “gained nothing,” that it had failed to achieve its goals and received “a harsh slap.”
Brazen. Delusional. And certainly not the words of a chastened man.
President Trump dealt a blow to Iran’s nuclear program and quickly negotiated a ceasefire. He is congratulating himself for preventing an Iranian bomb while avoiding a major war, with all the mass casualties, destruction and economic consequences that might bring. He is hoping this brief show of strength will somehow cause Iran’s regime to abandon its Islamofascist goals, including its nuclear ambitions. All evidence, including the ayatollah’s public defiance, exposes this as a false hope.
Trump has shown himself willing to use American force in short, sharp bursts. But it will take far more than that to reshape Iran’s role in the Middle East and worldwide. And the president has no intention of embroiling the U.S. in a protracted effort to do that. He has been fiercely critical of America’s failures in Afghanistan and Iraq, and he knows that Americans have no stomach for adding Iran to that list.
It is worth remembering how both those wars started: with shocking, awesome displays of American firepower that rapidly deposed oppressive and unpopular regimes. Just three weeks into the Iraq war in 2003, “Baghdad had fallen … with much less resistance than most commentators had expected,’” Greg Priddy wrote in the National Interest. “… A significant percentage of Iraq’s population was clearly glad to be rid of the Saddam regime. Less than a month later, President George W. Bush stood on an aircraft carrier deck before a banner reading ‘Mission Accomplished.’ Wars take time to play out, and it is seldomly clear early on how history will ultimately judge them. Now, we all know who won that war: Iran” (June 13).
If President Bush’s declaration of victory after six weeks of warfare was premature, President Trump’s claim to have ended the war and neutralized Iran after two days of bombing is far more so.
After he declared the ceasefire, Iran launched more missiles, and Israel retaliated with one last attack, one that Netanyahu called “the harshest blow since the start of the war—the worst in [Tehran’s] history”—an action that doesn’t exactly convey confidence that Iran was already “obliterated” and that the ceasefire was good for Israeli security. Reports suggest Netanyahu’s description was an exaggeration; nevertheless, President Trump was visibly furious, cursing in front of reporters and demanding that Israel cease hostilities immediately.
It was a troubling sign of how the situation will likely play out. The ultimate effect of America’s involvement is not one of augmenting Israel’s firepower but of restraining it. President Trump will likely compel Prime Minister Netanyahu to assert “mission accomplished” when the mission is not accomplished.
Trump’s desire to burnish his reputation as a peacemaker has thrown the ayatollah’s regime a lifeline.
What Prophecy Says
It is unclear exactly how this situation will play out. Often events take turns very different from what we expect. But biblical prophecy is clear about the outcome. As impressive as Israel’s accomplishments have been, and as much as one may wish to see the demise of this violent, oppressive regime, somehow Iran is going to preserve its considerable power—as well as its extremist temperament and aspirations.
Watch what happens. In the end, the way America handles Iran will be a powerful lesson in the danger of failing to deal completely with evil.
Study the history of the Jewish state’s and America’s ancient forefathers in biblical Israel. They failed to obey God and eliminate the threats they faced in the Promised Land, and those threats led ultimately to their doom. You can read this tragic history in the book of Judges.
In our day, it may well end up being the fault of Donald Trump. When he took office in January, he prevented Israel from finishing the job against Hamas by initiating negotiations with them. (See Gerald Flurry’s article “President Trump Betrayed Israel”). Now he is telling Israel not to kill Ayatollah Khamenei and has ordered it to cease fire. He continues to speak as though the solution to the Iran problem lies in negotiation.
It does not. Prophecy makes this clear. And prophecy—not negotiations or bombs—can be trusted.
Again, several details of “the king of the south” prophecy have already been fulfilled. As you can read in The King of the South, prophecy accurately told us to expect Iran to lose its influence over Gaza. Israel’s success over Hamas accomplished this. Prophecy foretold Lebanon slipping from Iran’s orbit. Israel’s neutering of Hezbollah paved the way for this to occur. Prophecy also said Iran would lose Syria. That was dramatically fulfilled when the Assad regime fell in December (“Syria’s Fall—Another Key Prophecy Fulfilled,”).
Now prophecy tells us to expect Iran to build a new “axis of resistance” with Egypt, Libya and Ethiopia. This is no minor achievement. It will require strength, authority and strategic coherence from the Iranians.
True, the Israeli-American attack may have undermined Khamenei’s leadership. He reportedly named three senior clerics as potential successors in the event that he is killed. The chances of his rule ending have risen—though President Trump doesn’t seem particularly interested in forcing him from power.
Still, the notion that Khamenei’s deposition or death will bring about a moderate, West-friendly government in Tehran—as though the regime represents a mere fringe ideology—is wishful thinking.
One could actually see Iran rising from its cratered state with strengthened credibility. Historian Victor Davis Hanson said in a video message, “If this war should end with the Iranian regime intact and the elements of its nuclear program recoverable, then, in some ways, it will be all for naught. And people will make the necessary adjustments in the Middle East. And it won’t be necessarily, Well, Iran is still very weak. They’ve lost all their terrorist surrogates. They have no air defenses. They’ve lost their media. … It will be more like, [Wow], Iran survived everything that Israel and, by association, the United States threw at it. It’s indestructible” (Daily Signal, June 18).
If the 86-year-old Khamenei does lose power, we can expect his successor to walk in his footsteps. In fact, it may require a fresh face to redirect and to advance Iran’s cause in the way prophecy outlines.
We may even see someone take power who seems more amenable to the West, someone willing to hold talks, to negotiate, to profess cooperation and to make ostensible concessions. This may provide a strategic window for him to construct that prophesied new coalition.
Prophecy also shows Iran will continue to attack Israel. Zechariah 14 describes the suffering Jerusalem will soon experience. It begins when “half of the city shall go forth into captivity.” This suggests violence, Mr. Flurry wrote. “The Palestinians, backed by Iran, will almost certainly do this violent deed” (“Jerusalem Is About to Be Cut in Half”).
“The fall of half of Jerusalem triggers a violent and massive chain reaction that leads to Christ’s Second Coming,” Mr. Flurry continued. God will allow that violence—and will use it to help mankind turn from the way of life causing all suffering and to humble man to the point that he is willing to let God teach him the way to peace.
Lack of that knowledge, and an unwillingness to go to God to learn will cause a lot of death and destruction in the time ahead. Trumpet executive editor Stephen Flurry called it “The Fatal Flaw in Trump’s Foreign Policy” (May-June 2025). “President Trump is a courageous fighter against those who attack him openly, but he is very susceptible to manipulation and flattery,” he wrote. “This is a dangerous weakness.” His handling of Iran, while demonstrating a certain courage and strength, also highlighted this dangerous weakness. This is leading to the most powerful demonstration in history of humanity’s need to look to God, not man, to solve its problems.
Prophecy shows that the recent offensive against Iran will fail to eliminate the threat. It also shows that this failure will serve as a potent example to another power on how to attack Iran and succeed.
The King of the North
Daniel’s prophecy describes the Iran-led coalition provoking “the king of the north,” a multinational European empire.
In the end, the Iran that emerges will be more than capable of embroiling the world in a devastating war. Iran will attack Europe with a violent and bloody push. Much violence and death is yet to come from this radical nation.
Even now, Iran still has weapons in its arsenal. It could close the choke points in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. It could mobilize Shiite militias in Iraq to attack U.S. bases, drawing America into another insurgency war. It still has foreign terrorist cells—many throughout the West—that it could activate. It may have a dirty bomb, or several bombs, in undisclosed locations.
Deploying any or all these options would raise the wrath of the world and bring it down on Iran’s head. But it is exactly this type of “push” that is emphasized in Daniel’s prophecy. This provocation could be an act of desperation, but it will certainly require power—and nuclear capacity could be involved. It will happen at some point precisely as Daniel foretells.
When the king of the north comes against Iran, it will not make the same mistake Israel and America did, deploying targeted strikes and strategic assassinations. No—“At the time of the end, the king of the south shall attack him, but the king of the north shall rush upon him like a whirlwind, with chariots and horsemen, and with many ships. And he shall come into countries and shall overflow and pass through. He shall come into the glorious land. And tens of thousands shall fall …. He shall stretch out his hand against the countries, and the land of Egypt shall not escape. He shall become ruler of the treasures of gold and of silver, and all the precious things of Egypt, and the Libyans and the Cushites shall follow in his train” (Daniel 11:40-43; English Standard Version).
These verses describe unimaginably violent warfare that is just ahead of us. It will lead, in fact, to “a time of trouble, such as never was since there was a nation even to that same time …” (Daniel 12:1). This is a nuclear World War iii!
God is warning us in advance! We must see His hand in these events as they unfold and use that as motivation to turn to Him. He is alive and active today. He is guiding world events to fulfill His prophecies, and soon He will intervene to effect regime change—not just in a single oppressed Middle Eastern nation—but in every country on Earth. He will replace the misguided, corrupt governments of this world with truly righteous rule.
Only then will the peace that America’s president yearns for truly be established.
