Regime Change?

Israel’s immediate target in its attacks on Iran over the weekend was Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. But Israel may be aiming for another, even loftier goal: triggering a revolution in Iran.

• The code name for the assault, Operation Rising Lion, is taken from imagery in Numbers 23:24. But some analysts suspect it also may be an allusion to the flag of pre-revolution Iran, which featured a lion.

Deliberate targeting: Along with attacking physical nuclear sites, Israel also assassinated several powerful people associated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (irgc). But so far, Israel has not killed any senior figures in Artesh, Iran’s conventional military.

Artesh is descended from the pre-revolution Iranian Army. The irgc in contrast was set up in 1979 specifically to preserve the Islamic identity of the new Iran. Israel could be leaving Artesh alone hoping it could later launch a coup.

In his message last week announcing Operation Rising Lion, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated:

To the brave people of Iran, I have a message: Our fight is not with you. Our fight is with the brutal dictatorship that has oppressed you for 46 years. I believe that the day of your liberation is near. When that happens, the great friendship between our two ancient peoples will flourish once again.

Will it work? The women’s rights protests rocking Iran for the past several years show there is large-scale opposition to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. His regime knows this. It has spent the last several years cracking down on protests for seemingly trivial matters, such as whether women must wear headscarves.

The Iranian government takes threats to its power and its Islamist identity very seriously. It will not allow Israel to try to start a revolution without an extreme response.

What the Trumpet watches for: Do not expect attempts to oust Iran’s Islamist regime to be successful. Expect Iran to double down on its current course and become an even more dangerous adversary.

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