Prisoner Swap Makes German Chancellor Look Weak

The prisoner swap on August 1 in which Russia exchanged 16 Western prisoners and Russian dissidents is proving controversial for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Five of the freed Westerners were German. Some of the Russian dissidents received asylum in Germany, with Scholz greeting their arrival in Bonn. The main man Russia wanted back, Vadim Krasikov, had been incarcerated in Germany for assassinating a Chechen dissident in Berlin.

German permission: Krasikov was the main prize for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Freeing him required Scholz’s green light.

United States President Joe Biden reportedly petitioned Scholz personally in January to release Krasikov, seeing his release as essential to any deal. Scholz reportedly told Biden: “For you, I will do this.”

But “Germany’s entire security establishment, leading ministers, top diplomats and government lawyers opposed the release,” the Wall Street Journal wrote. None of the people Germany got back were anywhere close to Krasikov’s rank or importance.

Scholz ended up overriding the initial opinions of almost all of his team to make the release happen.

• German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock was one of the main opponents of the deal before the chancellor brought her around.
• Justice Minister Marco Buschmann called Krasikov’s release “a bitter concession.”
• Roderich Kieswetter, who heads the Bundestag Intelligence Oversight Committee, said it was “extremely problematic” and set a bad precedent.
• Public broadcaster Deutsche Welle quoted parliamentarian Michael Roth calling the swap a “deal with the devil.”

Why did Scholz do it? Good relations with Biden may have played a part. Scholz doesn’t want Donald Trump back in the White House. Maybe he wanted to give Biden and Kamala Harris a foreign-policy photo win.

Germany and Russia also have a long history of working together—in the context of Putin’s war in Ukraine. Putin may have offered Scholz a private concession.

Pushover chancellor: Whatever the reason for the deal, Scholz looks weak, like he is siding with the interests of other powerful countries at the expense of his own. He looks like a pushover chancellor.

Scholz is unlikely to lose his job over this. But with all the crises in Europe’s backyard—Russia’s war in Ukraine, Israel’s war in Gaza, the never-ending stream of refugees and migrants, squabbles with European Union countries like Viktor Orbán’s Hungary—now is not the time to look weak.

Strong German leader imminent: German parliamentary elections are scheduled for next year, and Scholz’s coalition is weak. The prisoner swap probably won’t be the decisive factor breaking Scholz’s coalition, but it could collapse sooner than 2025. A lopsided, polarizing prisoner swap is one more straw on the camel’s back.

The weaker Germany’s current leader is, the more Germans cry out for a strong one. In 2025, they’ll have the opportunity to get one.

“[T]here are several signs in world news that a strong leader is about to rise on the world scene,” Mr. Flurry writes in A Strong German Leader Is Imminent. “A strong German leader is imminent! When he comes to power, this world will be shocked as it has never been shocked before.”

Find out how and why by requesting your free copy.