Are Germans Growing Tired of Angela Merkel?
Is Germany growing weary of its chancellor? The “Schulz Effect” sweeping the nation suggests just that.
At the start of the year, German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s victory in the upcoming election seemed secure. That illusion has now been shattered. Sigmar Gabriel resigned as leader of Merkel’s main rival party, the Social Democratic Party (spd) on January 25. President of the European Parliament Martin Schulz resigned the presidency and stepped into his place, filling the spd with new life, enthusiasm and, most of all, hope for change.
Though part of the European political elite, Schulz brings a fresh face to the political arena by differentiating himself from the Berlin establishment. Just a few weeks into the leadership change, spd support rose from 21 percent to 31 percent.
Die Welt reported on February 2 that if Germans could vote directly for their chancellor, 50 percent said they would vote for Schulz, whereas only 34 percent still favor Merkel. The spd had not enjoyed this kind of lead in the polls for 20 years.
The party has also received a surge in grassroots enthusiasm. Thousands of new members have joined since Schulz was chosen as candidate—“higher than it has been in recent memory,” according to Spiegel Online. Offices are running out of party books to give new members, and meeting rooms cannot accommodate the swelling crowds.
This phenomenon could not have come at a worse time for the Christian Democratic Union (cdu) and Christian Social Union (csu). Spiegel Online wrote:
But it’s not just that the electorate has grown tired of Merkel. She is also leading a conservative alliance that is more fractured than ever before. The csu-cdu peace summit held in Munich a week ago is nothing more than a temporary ceasefire, and Merkel’s aura as a chancellor who is level-headed in times of crisis took a significant hit in the summer of 2015 when she opened the country’s borders to refugees.
The Schulz effect dramatically shows what a leadership change can do for a party. “Merkel’s chancellorship is showing its wear and tear, and that is where the danger lies. It is often the case that the electorate’s vote for a challenger is more of a vote against the incumbent” (ibid.).
The vote “against the incumbent” has caused many great cdu chancellors to lose elections against the spd, like in the case of Helmut Kohl (cdu) and Gerhard Schröder (spd).
That’s not to say Schulz will win the election. Germans won’t cast their votes for several months, and Schulz is even more pro-immigration than Merkel. Depending on news events over the next few months, this could hurt him.
What is clear is that Germans are keen to have a fresh face.
The wind of change that is starting to blow across Germany will also soon change the leadership in the cdu and csu. Our article “A Strong German Leader Is Imminent” describes the kind of leadership that will soon fill the political offices in Germany.
