The Week in Review

Middle East

Terrorist attack in Tel Aviv: Early Monday morning, a Palestinian from the West Bank wounded eight Israelis when he hijacked a taxi in the Israeli city of Tel Aviv, stabbed the driver, ran over police officers at a checkpoint outside a nightclub, and then got out of the car and stabbed several bystanders. A police spokeswoman said the man declared “God is great!” in Arabic as he struggled with police as they arrested him. Israel has been on an increased level of alert for possible attacks since the August 18 gun attack that killed eight Israelis. Israel fears the possibility of a third intifada being triggered by the Palestinians’ statehood bid later this month.

Iran said it aided Libyan rebels: Iran “discreetly” provided humanitarian aid to Libyan rebels before the fall of Tripoli, Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said on Sunday, according to the Jam-e-Jam newspaper. “We were in touch with many of the rebel groups in Libya before the fall of Qadhafi, and discreetly dispatched three or four food and medical consignments to Benghazi,” Salehi told the daily. On Tuesday, Iran “congratulated the Muslim people of Libya” after rebels took control of much of Tripoli. Iran, it seems, is all set to build a working relationship with Libya’s new government.

Libya’s governing council already hitting trouble: Around 500 people protested in Misrata on Monday against plans for Libya’s National Transitional Council (ntc) to appoint a former Qadhafi general, Albarrani Shkal, as the head of security in Tripoli. Shkal reportedly played a leading role in the Libyan Army’s attack on Misrata early in the Libyan war, before he defected to the other side in May. Misrata’s ruling council said that if the appointment was confirmed, then its military units would not follow ntc orders. This is just one early example of the daunting task of forming a new government in the country that won’t cause further division and violence within the fractious rebel movement. The ntc never actually gained control over the resistance movement as a whole. “Open challenges to the ntc’s authority are already being voiced” in places other than Misrata, Stratfor reports, and signs of discontent are emerging even in eastern Libya (August 30). The unstable environment in the country will provide fertile ground for the ambitions of Islamist and jihadist groups. Islamist groups could end up undermining post-Qadhafi Libya, writes the guardian.co.uk, “because they have some of the most effective, organized and heavily armed military brigades that have acted independently of the ntc.” The Islamists’ strength was demonstrated in their success in ensuring that Libya’s new draft constitution would regard Islamic jurisprudence (sharia) as “the principal source of legislation”—“clearly a measure of appeasement,” says the guardian.co.uk.

Europe

Position vacant—papal enforcer: Catholic news sources have begun speculating over who will be the next prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, the head of the Vatican department historically known as the Office of the Holy Inquisition. It’s the job that Pope Benedict held as Cardinal Ratzinger directly answerable to John Paul ii during the latter’s papacy. Under his rule, the prefect became known as “the pope’s enforcer.” The current holder of that office, Cardinal Levada, who was certainly not cast in the mold of a true “enforcer,” is set to retire at the end of the year. In all probability, Benedict appointed the American Levada very deliberately knowing that such an appointment was a gap filler, while he prepared to place a man after his own persuasion, a true doctrinaire “enforcer,” in that key role. It appears there are two prime contenders for that role who fit this moment in the development of Pope Benedict’s upcoming great crusade. Both are German. Cardinal Christoph Schönborn of Vienna has often been mentioned as a contender for Cardinal Levada’s replacement. He currently serves as archbishop of Vienna and is president of the Austrian Bishops Conference. Akin to Benedict, he is an intellectual, a theologian who studied directly under Cardinal Ratzinger. The other contender hails from Pope Benedict’s old college town of Regensburg, Bavaria. He is Cardinal Gerhardt Ludwig Muller, who was appointed bishop of Regensburg in 2002. Muller was appointed a member of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith for a five-year tenure in 2007 and is also a member of the Pontifical Council for Culture. Either way, unlike Cardinal Levada, each of these men are of an age that would give longevity to their appointment and are each of a truly conservative Teutonic Catholic orientation to the extent that they could certainly play the role of the pope’s enforcer in a most crucial time in the European Union’s history.

Why you should watch September 7: German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s cabinet approved the July 21 bailout deal on August 31, but it still has a ways to go before becoming law. Next Wednesday, Germany’s Constitutional Court will rule on whether the eurozone’s bailouts are legal. Its decision could cause radical changes in Europe. The court case, brought by five German academics and a politician, alleges that the bailouts violate the eurozone’s no-bailout clause. On the same day the high court rules, Germany’s parliament will begin its debate on the July 21 agreement extending the powers of the European Financial Stability Facility. Merkel may struggle to get it approved. She has a majority of just 19, and around 24 have said they will oppose the bailout. If she has to pass the law with the help of her opposition, the coalition could collapse. Parliament’s vote is scheduled for September 29. As the Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard wrote, “The next month will decide [Merkel’s] future, Germany’s destiny, and the fate of monetary union.” The high court could throw the eurozone into confusion by outlawing the bailouts or imposing conditions on them. “That would really throw things into chaos!” the Trumpet’s editor in chief wrote in his September editorial. “Yet it probably will happen, and that may be the beginning of the end of Angela Merkel—and the beginning of the strongman coming on the scene to get things under control.”

Sarkozy says Europe to play a bigger role in the Middle East: The EU will play a bigger role compared to America in the Middle East and North Africa, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said at France’s annual ambassadors’ conference, August 31. “The world is changing,” he said. “President Obama has presented a new vision of American military engagement which involves the Europeans assuming their responsibilities.” In Libya, “Europeans have shown for the first time that they are capable of intervention in a decisive way, with their allies, in an open conflict on their doorstep,” he said. He also said the EU should play a bigger role in the Middle East peace process. “The role of the U.S. is incontrovertible and irreplaceable, but everyone can see it is not sufficient,” he said. “It is necessary to enlarge the circle of negotiators …. We must keep in mind that the European Union is the top economic partner of Israel and the top aid donor to the Palestinians.” Sarkozy also warned Iran that “Its military nuclear and ballistic ambitions constitute a growing threat that may lead to a preventive attack against Iranian sites that would provoke a major crisis that France wants to avoid at all costs.” The Trumpet has long forecast that Europe will be pushed to intervene in the Middle East, taking care of Iran and sending troops to Israel. Libya has put Europe on the path to becoming more involved in the Middle East.

Libyan rebels using German guns: Libyan rebels have been found using the German Heckler & Koch G36 assault rifle, according to the Stuttgarter Nachrichten newspaper and tv network ard. “Eye witnesses said a huge stockpile of the guns fell into rebel hands during the attack on Qadhafi’s compound in Tripoli last week,” reports The Local. “But it remains unclear exactly how many or who exported them to Libya.” The German government says that it does not know how the guns ended up in Libya and will be holding a full investigation.

Asia

China seeks to boost leverage over the Philippines: Philippine President Benigno Aquino iii started his first-ever state visit to China on August 30, accompanied by a delegation of 300 Philippine businessmen. Ahead of the visit, Manila softened its previous criticisms of Beijing’s assertive behavior in an effort to garner more Chinese investment in Manila during a time of economic slowdown for the Philippines. Unlike other Asian nations, the Philippines enjoys a security pact with the United States that has granted it some capacity to counterbalance China’s rising influence. Manila has traditionally played the U.S. and China off one another, securing the benefits of economic relations with Beijing while simultaneously protecting itself with Washington’s security assurances. But China hopes to use Manila’s growing desire for Chinese investment to assert control over Manila and draw it away from U.S. influence. On Thursday, Stratfor wrote that Beijing “will try to use Aquino’s request for investment to extract concessions and restrain the Philippines’ behavior in the South China Sea.” China’s state-run Global Times said in a recent editorial that Beijing should boost its economic leverage over the Philippines and use it to shape Manila’s behavior. The Trumpet has pointed out that even though Manila has decried China’s rise in the past and looked to the U.S. for protection from Beijing, the Philippines will eventually succumb to China. Aquino’s visit to Beijing and Manila’s desire for more Chinese investment may work to bring that about more quickly.

China: Beijing and Tokyo need closer ties: China called on Yoshihiko Noda, the new prime minister of Japan, to strengthen bilateral ties between the two nations on Tuesday. In a statement congratulating Noda on his election, Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao said he hoped both sides would work together to enhance bilateral “strategic and mutually beneficial relations.” “Developing a good-neighborly and friendly relationship of long-term stability between China and Japan is not only in the fundamental interests of the two countries and the two peoples, but also conducive to peace, stability and prosperity in Asia and the world,” Wen said. Sino-Japanese ties came under strain last September after a Chinese fishing trawler collided with Japanese Coast Guard ships near the Senkaku islands, which are claimed by both countries. Expect the warming relationship between these Asian powers to continue to improve.

Chinese warship confronts Indian Navy vessel: In late July, a Chinese warship confronted an Indian Navy boat shortly after it departed from a Vietnamese port, India’s top Foreign Ministry spokesman said on Thursday. Crewmembers onboard the Chinese vessel demanded the Indian ship identify itself and explain its presence in what it called Chinese waters. Indian officials said their boat was 45 nautical miles from the Vietnamese coast, placing it within Vietnam’s economic zone, when it was hailed by the Chinese ship. “Any navy in the world has full freedom to transit through these waters or high seas,” said one unnamed Indian official. “For any country to proclaim ownership or question the right to passage by any other nation is unacceptable.” The incident marks the first such encounter in the South China Sea between the Indian and Chinese navies, and has angered defense officials in India as well as Vietnam, which said in May that its exploration vessels had been sabotaged by Chinese patrol boats. These encounters represent China’s increasing naval assertiveness as Beijing intensifies its claims of the entire resource-rich South China Sea and rejects partial claims by several other Asian powers. The frequency of such encounters will increase as China’s desire to project its power intensifies.

Latin America/Africa

Cuban dissidents call on the Catholic Church for help: A Cuban dissident group met with an aide to Catholic Cardinal Jaime Ortega on Tuesday to lay out their concerns over a recent government crackdown on their supporters. “Our principal worry is to stop the beatings and harassment against the Ladies in White in all of Cuba, but also that there’s been too much violence against other peaceful opposition activists,” said Ladies in White spokeswoman Berta Soler. The aide received the group’s concerns and promised to relay them to Cardinal Ortega, who would then get in touch with the Cuban government and then get back to them with a solution. Ortega interceded on behalf of the Ladies in White last spring, when government-organized mobs attacked the group as they marched after Sunday mass in Havana, and the harassment quickly stopped. Watch for careful but overt initiatives from Vatican City to consolidate the church’s power through winning back the loyalty of its Cuban parishioners.

Anarchy breaks out in South Africa: In what looked like an open declaration of war, thousands of unruly Youth League members stormed the entrance of the ruling African National Congress (anc) headquarters in downtown Johannesburg on Tuesday. This massive riot was an anarchic show of backing for embattled Youth League leader Julius Malema, who was being tried in an anc disciplinary hearing over comments he made earlier this month concerning anc support for a political coup in Botswana. As angry Malema supporters harassed journalists and hurled rocks, the South African police force fired stun grenades and water cannons in an attempt to contain the crowd. One group of protesters told the news media that they would make the situation in South Africa “worse than Libya” if the hearing decision did not “come out the right way.” With calls to nationalize mines and seize white-owned farms, Malema has caught the imagination of thousands of radical black youth. By fanning the flames of racial tension, the leader of the anc Youth League has brought South Africa to the brink on anarchy and race war.

Anglo-America

Hurricane Irene hits America’s economy: Recent estimates put the cost of damages from Hurricane Irene between $7 and $10 billion, making the storm one of the 10 costliest natural disasters in American history. Beyond just the deadly flooding that caused havoc in upstate New York and Vermont, Irene flooded cotton and tobacco crops in North Carolina, temporarily halted shellfish harvesting in Chesapeake Bay, kept commuters from their jobs in the New York metropolitan area and pushed tourists off Atlantic beaches in the peak of summer. The governors of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut sought official natural disaster declarations from the federal government on Tuesday, in an attempt to get more federal aid. The increase in natural disasters will only hasten America’s economic decline.

Exxon gives Putin minority stakes in American oil fields: ExxonMobil formed an Arctic exploration partnership this week with Russian state oil company Rosneft. In return for its place in this partnership, Exxon agreed to give the state-controlled Russian group minority stakes in projects in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and in onshore fields in Texas. The $3.2 billion agreement follows the collapse of an Arctic exploration deal between Rosneft and British Petroleum earlier this year. If this deal goes through, Russia will own parts of U.S. oil fields for the first time. As America fails to implement a coherent energy policy, foreign powers are trying to wrestle control of America’s oil fields out of Washington’s hands.