The Week in Review
Middle East
Iraq held parliamentary elections on Sunday, with initial results indicating Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s ruling State of Law bloc ahead and the largest Shiite sectarian coalition—the Iraqi National Alliance (ina)—close behind. These two Shiite coalitions, Iran-friendly and pro-Iranian respectively, will take a large share of parliamentary seats, likely joining forces to form the new government as per a reported pre-election deal between Maliki and the Iranian-formed ina. Even if just one of these alliances partners with the Kurds or the Sunnis, “neighboring Iran will continue to enjoy considerable influence in Iraq and be in a position to increase its influence further after the U.S. troop withdrawal is completed at the end of next year” (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, March 8).
As the United States prepares to wind down its military presence in Iraq, Stratfor notes that Iran would still like to see the U.S. military remain bogged down—preferably somewhere where Tehran enjoys strong influence. “Afghanistan, where the United States is refocusing its military efforts, is one such place. … [T]he two countries … share a border, and so Iran is not without options to ensure that the United States remains there—engaged but vulnerable—in the years to come” (March 11). Iran has close ties both with elements of the Taliban and ethnic minorities in Afghanistan. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visited Afghanistan on Wednesday, the same day U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates was in the country.
Meanwhile, Washington has downgraded the once “crippling sanctions” package it had tried to form against Iran. The downgrade follows months of failed attempts to bring on board Russia and China in particular. “The Americans have reportedly moved on to a more watered-down, weaker version of sanctions that target not Iran’s gasoline imports, but rather the country’s shipping, banking and insurance sectors after appearing to have resigned themselves to the fact that Russia and China were not going to come on board with the initial, more severe proposal,” reports Stratfor (March 9). The latest deadline under discussion is May—but this has little import considering the many disregarded deadlines that have already passed. “The United States thus finds itself in a geopolitical bind, stuck with no good options,” says Stratfor—a storyline that is beginning to sound all too familiar.
Iran announced on March 7 that it has produced a new type of cruise missile, while two days earlier, ihs Jane’s, a London-based intelligence service, reported that Iran is building a new rocket launch site with the assistance of North Korea. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi announced during the inauguration of the cruise missile’s production line that the Nasr 1 would be capable of destroying 3,000-ton boats. It can be fired from land or sea, and will eventually be upgraded to fire from helicopters and submarines, according to Vahidi. “It is impossible to independently verify the claims Iran makes regarding the new weapons systems it says it is developing,” writes United Press International, “but it is clearly preparing its military forces to retaliate against an assault.” The new launch site could be used to project a long-range missile, or even an icbm. Jane’s identified the launch site based on satellite images. The site’s similarity to North Korea’s launch pads suggests that the Iranians have had outside help in its construction. Jane’s concluded that U.S.-led sanctions were having little effect on Iran’s weapons program.
Europe
Greece was hit by its worst strike yet as its two main unions reacted to new austerity measures, approved March 5. Twenty thousand demonstrators took to the streets of Athens, and around a hundred anarchists confronted police with rocks, Molotov cocktails and brown spray paint. Two policemen and one bystander were injured. Rioters also set fire to trash cans, burned cars and shattered shop windows. All international flights and trains were canceled, public transport stopped, and public buildings were closed down. An ongoing strike at Athens’s main landfill means that rubbish is piling up in the streets.
Meanwhile, the Portuguese government could be the next victim of the economic crisis. On March 8, the minority government announced unpopular austerity measures. Opposition parties have severely criticized the cuts; Portuguese unions have called for more strikes. Portugal seems to be heading in the same direction as Greece. Europe is still waiting for a solution to its financial crisis.
Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and his cabinet are no longer at risk from the results of corruption trials, according to a new law approved by the parliament March 10. According to the law, cabinet officials may postpone any trial in which they are implicated for six months, as the trial may hamper their capacity to govern. This comes after the Constitutional Court declared that a law giving senior government members immunity from prosecution was unconstitutional. This is just another indication of Italy’s slide away from democracy. For more information, see our March 27, 2009, article “Is Fascism Returning to Italy?”
The European Commission will fund 43 energy projects that will help make Europe less vulnerable to Russia, it announced March 4. The projects mainly focus on allowing Europe to give emergency gas supplies to Central European nations if Russia cuts supplies. They also help the Baltic states become less dependent on Russian electricity and contribute to pipelines designed to bring gas in from countries other than Russia. Watch for fears of a strong Russia to cause Europe to get its act together in more than just the energy industry. For more information, see our July 2007 Trumpet article “Russia: Triggering Europe to Unite.”
Asia
Japan is about to be outstripped economically by China. A sense of weakness in Japan is compounded by Tokyo’s soaring national debt, a shrinking economy and a beleaguered Toyota—which once embodied Japan’s reputation for quality. On Monday, Financial Times columnist Gideon Rachman said that Japan’s reaction will have global ramifications. “The country’s size and strategic importance make it critical to America’s Pacific strategy and to China’s geopolitical calculations,” Rachman wrote. He went on to say that the ground is being prepared for Japan to form a “special relationship” with China, and that the early policies of Hatoyama’s government have confirmed the impression that “something is afoot.” As the global tides continue to shift, watch for Japan to sever its special relationship with the U.S. and to draw closer to China.
Newly inaugurated Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych visited Moscow March 5 and promised Russian officials a “sharp turn” in bilateral relations between the two countries. This shift into a new phase of heightened cooperation is a victory for Moscow. Yanukovych and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev signed a statement saying Russia and Ukraine will improve ties in such sectors as aviation, nuclear power and military technology. The top priority, according to the statement, is energy cooperation, particularly in regard to natural gas. In recent years, relations between Russia and Ukraine have suffered from arguments over the price of Russian gas flowing to Europe through a major transit route in Ukraine. Yanukovych has said he will seek to create a gas transit consortium involving Ukraine, Russia and the European Union in order to quell these pricing disputes. For years, the Trumpet has pointed to Ukraine as crucial turf in a future pact between Russia and Germany. Control of the strategic area will determine the line at which their individual imperialistic aims meet.
America’s superpower status in the field of higher education is steadily slipping as the efforts of other countries to improve their universities pay dividends. A recent rankings report shows that, as the grip of U.S. domination weakens, institutions in Asian countries such as Japan and China are gaining ground. Since 2004, Times Higher Education has published a yearly report of the world’s top 200 universities, the Times Higher Education-QS World University Rankings. The ranking weights are based on peer reviews, recruiter reviews, evaluations of research and teaching practices, and faculty and student surveys. The U.S. had 63 institutions ranked in the top 200 when the report was first published in 2004. Over the last five years, that number has fallen to 54. Since 2004, Australia has gone from having 14 universities in the top 200 to having only nine at present. And the UK lost one school, dropping from 30 top-200 schools down to 29. In contrast, between 2004 and 2009, Japan went from having six schools in the top 200 up to 11. China went from five to six, South Korea went from three to four, and Hong Kong went from four to five. As ambition in American education gives way to lethargy and the corrosive entitlement mentality, Asian powers are becoming more determined than ever before. As such trends persist, this shift in the tides of global power will pick up speed.
Latin America/Africa
Forty percent of Venezuela could be without power in April as water levels in the Guri Dam—the source of 63 percent of Venezuela’s electricity—may drop to crisis levels by early in the month, the former director of the National Center of Management, Miguel Lara, said March 5. Venezuela needs a quick fix to solve this potential crisis, and its only short-term solution seems to be going to Colombia for help. Colombia is a major rival, so this electricity would have a high political cost.
Another headache for Venezuela’s dictator, Hugo Chavez, is his country’s high crime rates. Murder rates have quadrupled during his 11 years in power. Two people are murdered every hour, according to data released by the Venezuelan Observatory of Violence this week. Chavez’s despotism continues to cause his country to crumble around him.
The president of Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government, Sharif Ahmed, said on March 9 that he would welcome U.S. air strikes against Islamic militants in Somalia. An anonymous U.S. official also said that America would deploy Special Forces for quick operations. This timid approach to tackling terrorism, however, will not solve anything. The U.S. lacks the will to deal fully with the problem.
Anglo-America
Members of the Republican Party voted Thursday to ban themselves from requesting “earmarks” this year. Earmarks, or “pork barrel” measures, are insertions politicians make into legislation which benefit their own interests, particularly their constituencies, increasing their likelihood of being reelected. The move, framed by conservatives as taking responsibility, acknowledges the corruption that has been built into and taken for granted in the American political way of life.
The Kansas City school board has decided to close half of its schools due to financial crisis. In spite of having received $2 billion as part of a desegregation case, the board said it has to close the schools to keep from going bankrupt. The school district plans to cut 700 of its 3,000 jobs and will try to sell its central office.
The Australian government has recognized one of its citizens as being neither male nor female. An individual who goes by only his first name was born as a male but began to take hormones at 23 and had surgery to become a woman. He has stopped taking hormones in order to live life as a “neuter,” “sex-not-specified” person. “It’s not a detail I think should be part of my identity,” he said.
