Major Iranian-backed Shiite groups in Iraq announced a new coalition on Monday in a major realignment of Iraqi politics. The new alliance excludes Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and is a strong move by Tehran to grab the reins of power in Iraq.

The new Iraqi National Alliance (ina) was formed by Iran’s allies in Baghdad in preparation for the country’s upcoming parliamentary elections on January 16 and as a means of undermining Washington’s influence in Iraq. If the alliance is successful in January’s vote, “Tehran could gain deeper influence in Iraq just as U.S. forces begin to withdraw,” Associated Press reports.

The new alliance replaces the United Iraqi Alliance, which ran in the 2005 parliamentary elections, winning control of parliament, but has since faltered. In provincial elections January this year, Iran’s closest Iraqi allies experienced somewhat of a setback. The ina, however, has the potential to make considerable gains in January’s election due to a new orientation.

Of significance is the absence of Maliki from the new Shiite-led alliance, though the door has been left open for Maliki’s Dawa Party to join. Iran has come to consider Maliki too pro-American and therefore a political threat. In reality, Maliki has been trying to walk a tightrope between cooperating with the U.S.—which still has tens of thousands of troops in Iraq—and making friends with Iran, the rising power in the region. Iran, in fact, was instrumental in bringing Maliki to power, but as the Iraqi leader grew more popular among the Iraqi people his dependence upon Tehran diminished. Now Tehran wants leadership in Iraq that is more malleable and not as close to America.

The new alliance is really of Iran’s making. The two main blocs in the alliance are the largest Shiite party, the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council, and the Al Sadr Trend, led by the anti-U.S. cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. Also in the coalition are smaller Shiite and also Sunni groups.

The Supreme Council was founded in Iran in the early 1980s and fought with Iran against Iraq in the Iran-Iraq War. It remains closely allied with Iran. Sadr has been under Iranian protection since Maliki cracked down on his group in early 2007 and is now firmly under Tehran’s control.

Former Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari is another Shiite who has brought his party into the new Iran-sponsored coalition. Jaafari leads a pro-Iranian breakaway faction of the Dawa Party, the Tanzim al-Iraq group. After Maliki won the premiership and Jaafari started coming under criticism from the U.S. back in 2006, the Iranians began wooing Jaafari, seizing on the “opportunity to bring Jaafari into their fold, flattering him with frequent invitations to Tehran to meet with the top leadership there” (Stratfor, August 24). Upon Tehran’s advice, Jaafari proceeded to split with Maliki’s Dawa faction and form his own party in May 2008. “The Iranian charm offensive paid off, and Jaafari, who announced the creation of the ina, is now facilitating Iran’s attempt to increase influence in Baghdad” (ibid.).

Iran has been preparing for a political comeback in Iraq since the beginning of the year. Specifically, according to Stratfor, it has been working through Iranian Ambassador to Iraq Hassan Kazemi Qomi, who is allegedly involved with the Quds force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. “With a number of intelligence assets at his disposal, Kazemi Qomi has been busy coaxing and coercing Iraq’s political factions into this new alliance, providing Tehran with a revamped platform from which to consolidate influence in Iraq” (ibid.).

This new alliance is “likely to worry Sunnis,” AP notes, “who largely consider the Supreme Council as little more than an instrument of Iranian policy …” (op. cit.).

However, by forming the new alliance on a nationalist platform, the ina is taking away Maliki’s calling card of being a nationalist. Iran’s previous strategy has largely focused on promoting a federalist model for Iraq, where Tehran could essentially take over an autonomous southern oil-rich region. But Iraqis have been wary of this idea, which is largely why the Supreme Council didn’t do so well in the elections earlier this year. So now Iran has shifted its tactic and is promoting the new coalition as a national alliance, which even includes some Sunnis.

The spike in violence in and around Baghdad and in the north of the country over recent weeks as the U.S. pulls back its troops is also working to Iran’s advantage by exposing Maliki as unable to provide security. In fact, Stratfor reports that Iran’s Quds force could very well be involved in instigating some of these attacks, for that very purpose.

It is unknown whether Maliki will now choose to join this new alliance on Iran’s terms, or try to cobble together a rival alliance himself. Regardless, if the new Shiite alliance holds, Iran will have a firm hand on the future direction of Iraqi politics.

For more on Iran’s involvement in Iraq, read “Prophecy Comes Alive in Iraq!” and “Is Iraq About to Fall to Iran?”