Middle East

The leaders of Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan gathered in Tehran last Sunday to discuss the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan and Pakistan. At the conclusion of the summit, the three countries issued a joint declaration in which they promised to find regional solutions for establishing stability and fighting terrorism. The fact that Iran hosted this summit gives it automatic significance, wrote Stratfor: “Iran is in the process of emerging as a regional player, especially in Afghanistan, where the United States has called on Iran to play a role in the fight against the growing Taliban insurgency” (May 24). By establishing itself as a key player in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, Tehran is gaining leverage over Washington, showing its potential to succeed where the U.S. has failed. With doubts increasing in the region over whether the U.S. will stick it out in Afghanistan, both Islamabad and Kabul are looking to Tehran to help form a regional solution. This, however, would most likely result in accommodating and ultimately strengthening the Taliban—not to mention Iran’s influence in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Iran and Pakistan signed several agreements at the Sunday meeting, including a deal to launch a pipeline to take Iranian gas to Pakistan and on to India. This agreement had been delayed for 15 years, reports Global Politician, due to the discouragement of the U.S. The use of such a pipeline would provide Pakistan with massive savings on its oil imports and thereby make Islamabad dependent upon Tehran. By offering Pakistan discounted gas and other incentives, Iran is deepening its influence in that country. What’s amazing is that Iran has supported the Taliban and al Qaeda, which threaten both Pakistan and Afghanistan. Global Politician reports, “[I]n a very complicated dual policy, Iran has been able to extend its influence in both countries while supporting the enemies of both governments. … [W]hat is clear is that the Islamic Republic of Iran is increasing its influence in the Middle East at the cost of the moderate governments of the region …” (May 28). More than ever, Iran is emerging as the prophesied king of the south. And America is facilitating that rise.

On May 26, Pakistan’s Supreme Court overturned an earlier ruling banning former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif from running for public office. Currently the most popular politician in Pakistan, the Islamist-leaning Sharif is now in a position to become prime minister once again, whenever elections are held. Sharif does not have a good relationship with the military; his party has close ties with Islamist political parties. For the longest time, the U.S. opposed him, fearing a popular right-wing nationalist party could undermine the war against the Taliban. Now, however, the Obama administration is apparently shifting its thinking, considering Sharif’s ties with Islamist groups may make him better placed to undermine the insurgency. Such a strategy is unlikely to work.

In Israel, a recent poll points to an increase in anti-Jewish sentiment among Arab residents. About 40.5 percent of Israeli Arabs believe the Holocaust never occurred, according to the May 17 University of Haifa poll. This figure compares with 28 percent who denied the Holocaust in 2006. Only 53.7 percent of Israeli Arabs polled said Israel has a right to exist; in 2003, that figure was 81.1 percent. If the results of this survey, which included 700 Israeli Arabs, hold up across Israel, it would mean a large segment of Israel’s own population don’t think the country should exist. Israeli Arabs account for about 20 percent of the population, or almost 1.5 million.

Europe

Last Friday was the 60th anniversary of Germany’s constitution. The flag-waving and patriotism shown that day reflects a marked change in Germany. “Sixty-four years after the end of the Nazi era and its atrocious crimes against humanity, Germans are no longer ashamed to wave their flag or sing their national anthem,” wrote United Press International. A recent survey, titled “Being German: A newfound national pride in harmony with the heart,” corroborated upi’s report. The three-year-long study polled 2,000 Germans from age 14 up. Sixty percent said they agreed with the statement, “I’m proud to be German.” Sixty-nine percent said Germany is more important than Europe or the international community. This rising German patriotism is part of a disturbing trend when you consider it in the context of German history. For more information on Germany’s history and future, read our booklet Germany and the Holy Roman Empire.

France neglected to invite Queen Elisabeth ii to ceremonies marking the 65th anniversary of D-day next week. Despite the queen being the head of state for a large proportion of the soldiers who fought on D-day, French President Nicolas Sarkozy did not send her an invitation. After a public outcry, the French issued a statement saying that the queen would be “welcome” to attend. Watch for France to betray its Anglo-Saxon allies once again, as it has in the past.

Asia

On May 25, North Korea tested a nuclear bomb for the second time in 3½ years. Then on May 27, it increased tensions further by stating it was no longer bound by the armistice agreement that ended the Korean War. These developments show just how much efforts at ending nuclear proliferation have failed. Stratfor notes a different consequence of the nuclear test: “Perhaps the more significant change in the regional security environment will not be the incremental improvements in North Korea’s nuclear technology, but the more substantial and accelerated adjustments to Japan’s defense doctrines and capabilities” (May 27). North Korea’s actions are giving Japan a reason to talk about becoming a major military power once more. For more on this trend, see our February 10 article, “Is Japan Turning Its Back on Its Pacifist Constitution?”

Japan is also using the pirate threat in waters off Africa to increase its military capability. Japan announced May 28 that it has deployed two P-3 surveillance aircraft to Djibouti to aid the anti-piracy operations. This is yet another step toward Japan shedding its post-World War ii military restraints.

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin warned the West that Ukraine belongs to Russia, the Russian press reported last Sunday. Putin visited the graves of Russian nationalist heroes and thinkers last weekend to mark Slavic Written Language and Culture Days. After laying a wreath on the grave of Anton Denikin, a military commander who led the white Russians against the Bolsheviks, he urged the journalists present to read Denikin’s diaries, which refer to Ukraine as “Little Russia”—a term many Ukrainians find offensive and demeaning. Putin’s words are seen as a warning to the West not to meddle in Ukraine, a sovereign country that Russia aims to control. Russia and Germany are competing for influence in Eastern Europe. Both powers are turning to nationalism. Watch for the two nations to bicker over the area before coming to an arrangement over who gets to control what. For more information, see our Sept. 1, 2008, article “Russia and Germany Fulfill Prophecy.”

Latin America

Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner announced on May 26 that her government will tap nationalized pension funds to stimulate the construction business. This is an attempt to boost popular support before legislative elections at the end of June. While this strategy may play well with her populist base in the short term, she runs the risk of a severe financial crisis that could leave Argentina unable to pay out retirement funds.

Police announced on May 21 that five neo-Nazis were arrested in Porto Alegre, Brazil, for plotting to detonate three explosive devices in two synagogues. Authorities suspect the neo-Nazi group Neuland has committed 10 murders in the last month alone, confirming a new pattern of violence among neo-Nazis in Brazil. For more on the resurgence of 1930s-style anti-Semitism, read “Anti-Semitism: Why You Should Be Alarmed” by Brad Macdonald from the May/June 2009 Trumpet.

Anglo-America

Ratings Agency Standard & Poor’s downgraded its assessment of the British government’s finances from “stable” to “negative” on May 21, fueling fears that Britain may soon lose its aaa credit rating—a frightful prospect when you consider that the European Commission estimates British government debt will reach 68 percent of gross domestic product in 2009 and 81 percent in 2010.

Britons are fed up with the European Union. A new icm/Taxpayers’ Alliance poll has found that 60 percent believe Britain should refuse to pay any fines the EU imposes on it. Almost 70 percent of people in Britain want the government to actually start breaking EU rules; only 28 percent disagree. Three out of four say any decision to grant more powers to Brussels should go to referendum. The Daily Mail Online called the majority Euroskeptics “ripe for revolt.”

On Thursday, the Associated Press reported that a record 12 percent of American homeowners are behind on their payments or in foreclosure, and the number isn’t expected to peak until the end of 2010.

The Guardian reports that America’s relations with Israel are at a low. “Increasingly fractious relations between the U.S. and Israel hit a low unseen in nearly two decades [Thursday] after the Jewish state rejected President Barack Obama’s demand to end settlement construction in the West Bank and Washington threatened to ‘press the point.’ The dispute, which blew in to the open hours before Obama was to meet the Palestinian leader, Mahmoud Abbas, reflects the depth of the shift in American policy away from accommodating Israel to pressuring it …” (May 28). The U.S. president and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met earlier this month in Washington in what the Guardian described as a “difficult meeting.”