Israel-Hamas War Puts Pressure on Egypt

Dominique Faget/AFP/Getty Images

Israel-Hamas War Puts Pressure on Egypt

Being a dictator in Egypt is not easy. Even at the best of times it is hard for Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to balance the anti-American and anti-Israeli sentiment of the masses on the one hand, and the fact that it is American money that keeps his country afloat on the other. But in Israel’s war with Hamas, Arabs are painting Mubarak as the bad guy who supports the “evil Israelis” against the “struggling, oppressed Palestinian people.” And that is making him very unpopular.

Israel’s foe in this conflict, Hamas, began as an offshoot of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood. The Brotherhood is Mubarak’s biggest opposition, so naturally he too is against Hamas.

Yet the Brotherhood is very popular within Egypt. Had Egypt’s last elections been fair, the Brotherhood almost certainly would have ousted Mubarak and established an Islamic theocracy similar to Iran’s. The Egyptian people want Cairo to back Hamas.

Hence Mubarak’s difficult situation. If he supports Hamas, he strengthens his enemy, the Muslim Brotherhood. But if he opposes Hamas, he turns the people against him.

Mubarak has chosen the second option. He has blamed Hamas for triggering the conflict. More importantly, he has helped Israel partially blockade Gaza, and has done so for the past six months.

He chose the unpopular option. Iran is now trying to use this to stir up the people of Egypt. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Iran’s overseas arm, Hezbollah, has called for the Egyptian people and military to rise up and force their country to open its crossing into Gaza.

In Yemen, protesters stormed the Egyptian Embassy, burned the Egyptian flag and flew the Palestinian flag in its stead.

Anything that looks like support for Israel stirs up strong emotions in the Arab world. Iran is expert at using this to its advantage. Despite the fact that Iran is Shiite and Hamas is Sunni, Iran has control over Hamas. The common bond of wanting to wipe Israel off the map overcomes any sectarian division.

Once sworn enemies, Egypt and Iran have been drawing closer together over the past couple of years. Iran is a major power in the region. Within Egypt, talking to Iran is the popular thing to do.

More recently, Iranian protests and government-run papers called for the assassination of Mubarak. With the assassination of President Anwar Sadat in 1981, Iran showed that it can be dangerous to disagree with it.

In the past, Mubarak has turned a blind eye to many of Hamas’s activities within Egypt, out of fear of the Muslim Brotherhood. Fear of a popular uprising may pressure Mubarak to soften his current position, pushing him away from Israel and toward Iran.

The influence of the United States in the region is going down, and that of Iran is rising. Seeing this, Mubarak may decide it’s time to hitch his wagon to a different star.

Or Mubarak could pass from the scene completely. A popular uprising could remove him, or the 80-year-old president could die naturally. Without a strong authoritarian leader, Egypt would fall to the Brotherhood.

Whichever way it happens, Egypt will soon ally with Iran. It is just a matter of time.

For more information, see our booklet The King of the South.