Middle East

A shaky cease-fire took hold in Basra this week after an Iraqi military crackdown on Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army and other Shiite militias in the southern Iraqi city where hundreds were killed. Al-Sadr ordered his Mahdi Army off the streets on Sunday as a result of a deal brokered in Iran. Some sources say al-Sadr backed down in exchange for Iraqi guarantees that his militia would not be targeted. Though the operation to root out Shiite militias and criminal gangs that have controlled Basra continues, the heavy fighting has ended due to al-Sadr’s backing off from an all-out confrontation. The Mahdi Army, however, has not given up its weapons, and the fighting didn’t cause any serious damage to the militia, according to military experts.

Ironically, the Iraqi government’s crackdown on the Mahdi Army may actually strengthen al-Sadr. As U.S. Sen. Joseph Biden, chairman of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, pointed out, despite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s military operation, Shiite cleric Sadr “lives to fight another day.” He compared the situation to Israel’s offensive against Hezbollah in the Lebanon War, where Hezbollah grew in strength as a consequence of surviving.

Further, Saudi newspaper Al-Hayat reported April 2 that, according to Iraqi officers and soldiers, the military’s ineptitude caused hundreds of Iraqi soldiers to surrender and hand over weapons and equipment to the Mahdi Army. An Iraqi Army lieutenant told Al-Hayat that some soldiers actually joined the Mahdi Army instead of fighting against it. This would not be surprising; seeing as al-Sadr’s political party has strong support among Iraqis, it would not be unusual for his militia to enjoy it as well.

The Wall Street Journal reports that al-Sadr has gained political strength since the military crackdown, citing an official in the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. The official said that if the elections to be held in October were held now, al-Sadr candidates would “win across the south.”

Despite the mixed results of the crackdown in Basra, Iraq’s prime minister announced Thursday that he would expand his operations to Baghdad.

On Tuesday, Israeli security officials reported that Iran has set up sophisticated listening stations in Syria in recent months to intercept Israeli military communications. In response, the officials said, Israel is taking new precautions such as stopping top brass from taking mobile phones into rooms where classified information is being discussed, and assigning special areas on bases for private conversations. Iran assisted Hezbollah in intercepting Israeli communications in the 2006 war, according to Israeli military officials.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is proposing that a sequel to the failed U.S. Annapolis conference on Israeli-Palestinian peace be held in Moscow. His foreign minister conducted a three-day tour of the Middle East beginning March 19 to rally support for such a conference. He has the support of Syria, Egypt and the Palestinians. Of course, Israel is not enthused. Russia’s objective is to undermine America and empower Israel’s enemies under the pretense of pursuing peace.

In Pakistan, the new government continues to indicate its desire to make a clean break from the Musharraf era. Pakistan’s foreign minister said on April 1 that no foreign forces will be permitted to operate on Pakistani soil, Pakistan’s aaj tv reported.

In an interview on March 30, cia Director Gen. Michael Hayden said that al Qaeda is establishing a network of training camps throughout western Pakistan for the express purpose of training people of white, European origin as terrorist operatives. Such Western-looking operatives would be able to more easily infiltrate the United States or Europe in order to carry out a terrorist strike.

Europe

This week, leaders from the United States and Europe met at what has been called the most important nato summit since the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Croatia and Albania have been formally invited to join the alliance, as Europe continues to assimilate the Balkans. Germany used nato to break up Yugoslavia. The fact that nations once part of Yugoslavia are now joining nato shows how successful Berlin has been in its Balkan foray. All that remains is for the parliaments of the two nations to ratify the treaty. Both nations should become full members by 2009 or 2010. For more information, see our booklet The Rising Beast—Germany’s Conquest of the Balkans.

Russia got its way at the summit, as Western European nations led by Germany blocked Georgia’s and Ukraine’s nato bids. These two nations will not receive Membership Action Plans (maps)—road maps for entry into nato. Watch this situation carefully as Russia and Europe struggle to define their common borders.

It is interesting to note Germany’s role in this. One year ago, Berlin was all for giving a map to Georgia. Now, it is dead set against the idea. As has happened in the past, this clash of Russian and German interests at the extremities of their abutting borders will lead to a trade-off in the form of a non-aggression pact, thus leaving Russia and Germany to continue their imperialist policies—in theory, having their mutual borders first agreed. This was the scenario predicted by Herbert Armstrong decades ago. Germany and Russia may be moving closer to making such a pact.

Continue to watch for news of the nato conference as other developments become known over the coming week.

Asia

As China continues to crack down on separatist protestors in Tibet, several key European politicians have decided to personally boycott Beijing’s opening ceremony for the 2008 Olympic Games. On Sunday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel became the first world leader to officially announce that she would not attend. Political leaders from across Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic have already followed in her lead; speculation is rife that France’s Nicolas Sarkozy won’t attend either.

The only nations that are adamantly supporting China’s handling of the Tibet situation are Beijing’s Asian allies, specifically Russia, India and Pakistan. The Russian Foreign Ministry stated on Monday that Moscow views Tibet as an “inseparable” part of China and that any attempt to politicize the Olympic Games would be “unacceptable.” Pakistan issued a similar statement, while India has urged the Dalai Lama not to engage in political activities that could hurt New Delhi’s ties with Beijing.

Vladimir Putin is seeking to increase Russia’s global clout not only by supporting China but also by reestablishing ties with Cuba, Russia’s old Soviet ally. On Thursday, Putin sent a letter to Cuba’s Council of Ministers aimed at relinking the political, economic, cultural and humanitarian ties severed at the breakup of the Soviet Union.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (asean) signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement with Japan earlier this week. This agreement adds even more momentum to the already cascading trend toward Asian economic unity.

Africa, Latin America

With presidential election results still up in the air, crisis-ridden Zimbabwe is on the edge of the cliff. Earlier in the week, media outlets speculated that President Robert Mugabe might resign. Now, they say Mugabe will contest a run-off election instead. Zimbabwean police arrested two foreign journalists for covering the election “without accreditation,” and also ransacked offices used by the opposition party. The despot of Zimbabwe won’t be going quietly, if at all. This developing story is eerily similar to the election that sparked rioting in Kenya from December to February. For more on the dangers introduced by Kenya’s election violence, read Joel Hilliker’s February 6 column, “Kenya: The Unseen Danger in Political Violence.”

Argentina’s president, Cristina Kirchner, called her country’s claim to the Falkland Islands “inalienable” on Wednesday. If this was meant to distract from the ongoing farmers’ strike, now in its third week, it failed. Farmers have blockaded more than 400 roads, depriving groceries of meat, cereals and milk. Though we may not see any movement on this front this week, the Falklands issue is real. The Trumpet predicted eight years ago that Britain will eventually give up the Falklands to Argentina; to understand why, read the original analysis from the February 2000Trumpet.

Anglo-America

In his last nato summit as president, President George W. Bush won support for a European missile defense system but was unsuccessful in his push to put Ukraine and Georgia on track for nato membership. While the proceedings of such meetings are typically pre-determined, Bush exasperated European leaders “express[ing] his views candidly despite warnings from allies that he was complicating efforts to find diplomatic solutions.” European resistance to the two former Soviet states’ membership appears to be a nod to Russia, which opposes the measure.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke admitted before Congress on Wednesday, “It now appears likely that gross domestic product will not grow much, if at all, over the first half of 2008 and could even contract slightly.” Bernanke, who, along with others, has sugar-coated the economy’s recent turbulent ride, has now, his phraseology notwithstanding, finally admitted an American recession could be upon us. Stocks slipped later in the day on the news.

The Telegraphreports Britons are overdosing on credit after the nation’s mortgage disaster. “Consumer borrowing through credit cards, overdrafts and loans is rising at its fastest rate in five years, with the withdrawal of cheap mortgage deals forcing millions of home owners to take on personal debt to finance their everyday expenses” (April 3).

America’s moral bankruptcy is again on display after the military attempted to prevent the Congress’s only open homosexual, Tammy Baldwin, from taking along her lesbian cohort on a military flight to Europe for an official fact-finding mission, saying it was unnecessary and not provided for in the guidelines for such trips. Baldwin and Lauren Azar were “married” in a ceremony in 1998 in Wisconsin, where such situations have no legal recognition. Waiving House rules, Speaker Nancy Pelosi intervened, and, with Defense Secretary Robert Gates, forced the Pentagon to back down.