Middle East

Turkish troops have launched what is possibly the largest Turkish ground incursion into Iraq since the toppling of the Saddam Hussein regime in 2003. On February 21, Turkish troops surged across the border to root out Kurdistan Workers’ Party (pkk) guerrillas hiding in northern Iraq. Again, the United States finds itself in a difficult position. As McClatchy Newspapers puts it: “The Turkish incursion, which began last Thursday, involves a U.S.-equipped army invading a U.S. ally in the most stable and most pro-American region in Iraq.” America cannot back the Kurds for fear of alienating the Turks, who have been among its few friends in the Middle East. Yet it must be cautious in backing the Turks for fear of further escalating Iraqi tensions.

Evidence mounts that Israel is increasingly open to Europe playing a greater role in the region. The Jerusalem Post cites a senior Israeli diplomatic official as saying, “Increasingly, Europe is involved in everything that touches us: trade, the Palestinians, Iran, unifil in Lebanon. They are in the Quartet, and many other examples. Developing a strong relationship with Europe is becoming the third pillar safeguarding Israel’s survival.” The other two pillars the official was referring to were a strong idf and an unbreakable alliance with America. However, as the aftermath of the Second Lebanon War has illustrated, Israel’s armed forces cannot be relied upon; and Israel’s alliance with America is already faltering. Expect Israel, therefore, to increasingly look to Europe for security.

“Moderate” Arab states are also looking to Europe for security. On Monday, France began a 10-day joint military exercise with the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, the first such war games ever. As Iran increases in power, and America is increasingly seen as an unreliable ally, we can expect certain Arab states to look more and more to Europe. The Bible speaks of such a Europe-Arab alliance forming in the end time in Psalm 83.

Also this week, a suicide bombing in Pakistan killed the army’s surgeon general; the Iraqi Foreign Ministry undersecretary reported that an Iraqi delegation that recently visited Iran has formed committees to deal with disputes between the two countries; and the Israeli ambassador to the U.S. said that Israel will launch a military offensive in the Gaza Strip if Egypt does not seal its border with Gaza, charging that Iran is sending fighters, funds and weapons to Hamas through Egypt.

Europe

Europe has been beset by allegations of corruption. This week, members of the European Parliament from the Budgetary Control Committee voted to keep secret a report on abuse of EU funding. The report examined how deputies spend their staff allowance, which can amount to up to €17,000 a month. mep Chris Davies, who saw the report, said that his first reaction was “a degree of hysteria given the scale of the abuse that is taking place and given the fact that it has been kept secret.”

A corruption scandal is also going on in Germany, with news breaking of a massive tax-evasion scam. German media group Deutsche Welle indicated that hundreds of wealthy Germans were involved in the scheme, considered one of the largest ever in German history. The tactics used by the bnd, Germany’s secret service, to obtain information that exposed the fraud have also brought some angry responses—it is reported that the bnd paid €5 million to an informant. Swiss Bankers’ Association Chairman Pierre Miraboud likened the bnd’s methods to those of the Nazi-era secret police. He blurted out, “These are methods that unfortunately remind you of Gestapo methods.”

The German government itself moved onto shaky ground this week. Two of the three parties of the ruling “grand coalition” have lost ground in key state elections, and they are now starting to fall out with each other. Watch for a strong leader to emerge from the current political turmoil.

Asia

Japan’s military is expanding its international presence even as it becomes more aligned with the nations of Asia. A Japanese government report issued last Saturday says that Japan is considering sending peacekeeping troops to southern Sudan to help implement a 2005 peace deal that ended more than two decades of war. Although these troops would not be involved in combat operations and would stay clear of the Darfur region, the sheer fact that Japan is considering sending troops to Sudan shows its desire to renounce its pacifist constitution and give its military a more prominent global role.

At the same time, the Japanese military is moving toward greater unity with China. On Wednesday, the Japanese Defense Force Chief of Staff Saito Takashi met with Chinese Defense Minister Cao Gangchuan to discuss defense cooperation between the two countries. Saito agreed to increase Japanese military cooperation with China and reiterated Japan’s support of keeping Taiwan as part of one China. Many of the American troops stationed in Japan were originally put there as a quick reaction force against any Chinese move to dominate Taiwan. Now that the Japanese military is aligning itself with China on the Taiwan issue, Tokyo is going to find it increasingly hard to keep both its American and its Chinese allies happy. The day is coming when Japan will have to choose between the two. Expect America to lose out.

China is kindling a new friendship with Japan, but it is also sticking close to its old friend Russia. Although America and most of Europe have come out in support of Kosovo’s independence, both China and India are following Russia’s lead in supporting Serbia.

On Monday, the Kremlin sent two representatives to Serbia to reiterate Russia’s support for the Serbian cause against Kosovo’s independence and to implement what could be Moscow’s next major move against the growing power of Europe. Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stood beside the Serbian prime minister as he declared Serbia’s intent to rule over the Serb-dominated regions within Kosovo. Medvedev also met with the prime minister of the Serb-dominated Srpska region of Bosnia-Herzegovina to work out a natural gas deal. Serbs in the Srpska region are holding rallies for independence from Bosnia and reunion with Serbia. Supporting the reunion of Srpska and the Serb-dominated counties of Kosovo with their Serbian motherland is Russia’s chance to get even with the EU and America over Kosovo’s declaration of independence. Expect tensions between Europe and Russia to increase over the future of the Balkans.

Africa, Latin America

Ex-United Nations head Kofi Annan has finally brokered a power-sharing agreement between Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki and opposition leader Raila Odinga, who will likely serve as prime minister in the new government. In the two months it took them to reach common ground, 1,500 people died and 600,000 were displaced from their homes.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez announced on February 21 that China will loan Venezuela $4 billion—all of which will be repaid in refined fuel. China lacks refining capacity, so receiving the usable gas rather than crude oil makes the deal more attractive to the Chinese. This deal follows close on the heels of President Chavez’s threats to cut off oil to the United States, which receives 12 percent of its supply from Venezuela. President Chavez is still in no position to carry out this threat—he depends on U.S. oil dollars—but the more foreign deals he can establish, the more his bluster becomes a legitimate concern for Washington.

Anglo-America

The Bank of England has said it fears the nation is facing its “largest ever peacetime liquidity crisis.” The bank’s Deputy Governor Rachel Lomax said Wednesday that the bank expected an economic correction, but did not foresee the size and scope of the crisis: “Clearly the situation is still developing. And its impact on the wider economic outlook—global and domestic—will depend critically on what happens from now on. Here there are some major uncertainties.”

Britain’s border control problem made headlines Monday when a judge stated, “In the last few years this country, perhaps for the first time since 1066, lost control of its borders ….” Christopher Elwen’s pronouncement came after a case where four foreign nationals held at an immigration removal center were charged with planning the riot that rocked the facility in November 2006.

A report published on Tuesday by the Good Childhood Inquiry in Britain shows that a culture which defines people by what they consume is taking its toll on children. The study found that commercial pressure to consume the latest products at adult levels, particularly designer clothes, computer games and music, has put Britain 21st out of 25 European states in terms of childhood well-being, despite and possibly partially due to the fact that incomes have doubled in the country over the last 50 years and 64 percent or more of British 8-to-15-year-olds have Internet access at home and/or their own cell phones.

In the United States, liberal Illinois Senator Barack Obama has built a sizeable lead in delegates over his Democrat rival and former front-runner Hillary Clinton in his party’s presidential nomination race. The two clashed Tuesday night in their last debate before the Ohio and Texas primaries on March 4, which could seal the deal for Obama. American news media are already pointing to Obama as the front-runner against Republican rival John McCain.