Middle East

U.S. President George W. Bush wrapped up his eight-day tour of the Middle East Wednesday. He has had little success in what appeared to be the main two goals of the trip: to create peace between Israelis and Palestinians, and to build an anti-Iran alliance among Gulf states.

In the case of the peace process, the problem is that President Bush is using the same strategy that has been used for the past 14 years—and that has only ever made things worse. In the wake of his visit to Israel, Gaza erupted in violence and an Israeli political party resigned from the government. The nationalist Yisrael Beitenu party announced January 16 that it is pulling out of the coalition in protest of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s caving in to Bush’s pressure to talk to the Palestinians about land exchanges for peace. This leaves the Israeli government on very shaky ground and could lead to early elections. This would certainly complicate President Bush’s promise to conclude the peace process this year, to say the least.

The president’s lack of success in convincing Gulf Arab states to take a stronger stance against Iran has much to do with his lack of credibility—and Iran’s heightened standing in the region. Despite Bush (and French President Nicolas Sarkozy) offering a range of economic, military and nuclear incentives to members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (gcc), these states were more worried about not getting on the wrong side of Iran. In fact, even while the U.S. president was in the Middle East, Kuwait (a key Arab ally for the U.S. in its operations in Iraq) held talks with Iran at the first meeting of the Iranian-Kuwaiti Higher Committee, which ended January 16. Kuwait and the other gcc states are strengthening ties with Tehran—blatantly doing the opposite of what President Bush wants them to do. This is not to say these Arab states are overly fond of Iran—the motivation is more a fear of the Islamic Republic and a growing mistrust of the U.S.

Meanwhile, if the National Intelligence Estimate was intended to be a reconciliatory gesture by the United States toward Iran in hopes of gaining Iranian cooperation on Iraq, it appears to have failed. It has only made Iran more belligerent, with it backing away from negotiations with Washington over security in Iraq. As a result, it appears President Bush may be distancing himself from the report, with him apparently telling Prime Minister Olmert that he disagreed with it.

Iran was the third-most active country in flight-testing missiles in 2007, Associated Press reported January 16. “They’re developing ranges of missiles that go far beyond anything they would need in a regional fight, for example, with Israel,” the head of the U.S. missile defense program said.

On January 12, Iraqi lawmakers passed a law that would allow former Baathists, once employed by Saddam Hussein’s government, to be integrated back into the civil service and military. Whether this law will ever be implemented, however, is another matter, with Iran and its Shiite allies doing whatever they can to stop it.

In Pakistan, instability continues, with three separate bombings taking place on Monday this week. In Karachi, Pakistan’s largest city, 10 people were killed and about 50 injured in a blast that occurred during a visit to the city by President Pervez Musharraf. In Afghanistan, the Taliban carried out a suicide attack on a hotel in Kabul on Monday, killing six people. This could represent a shift in the Taliban’s strategy to attack Western targets.

And lastly, as archaeological discoveries are increasingly finding a role in politics, a black stone seal found in an archaeological dig in Jerusalem provides more proof of the Jews’ presence in the city anciently—and adds to a growing mountain of tangible evidence showing the accuracy of the Bible’s account of history.

Europe

Race relations made headlines across Europe this week. Another European politician lashed out against Muslims on Sunday. This is only the latest example of a growing trend of rhetoric directed against European immigrants, particularly Muslims. According to Der Spiegel, “The xenophobic rhetoric underscores decades of foreigner bashing by the country’s politicians.”

The Vatican also made news this week when the pope snubbed an invitation to speak at one of Rome’s most prestigious universities as students protest his visit. Tension is building between the secular rationalists in Europe and those of the Roman faith. That tension hit home, right on the pope’s doorstep, this week. Watch for the backlash.

In trade news this week, European defense and aerospace giant eads is planning rapid expansion into the U.S. market, aiming to increase its sales there by 500 percent to $10 billion within the next decade. The dollar, which has plunged 40 percent against the euro in the past five years, has prompted the European manufacturer to take on U.S. firms like Boeing, which has thrived thanks to the exchange rate. However, the strong euro also allows eads the perfect opportunity to invest in the United States; it intends to snap up a medium-sized defense company this year. This follows on the heels of Airbus, eads’s commercial airline wing, posting “clearly our best performance in history” in 2007, according to eads chief Louis Gallois. However, eads is still in financial trouble, and has U.S. defense contracts and companies in its sights, a development that may ultimately undermine American military self-sufficiency.

Asia

The prime ministers of India and China signed a joint document on Monday outlining their shared vision for the 21st century. The document creates a basis for Sino-Indian cooperation on Asian integration, nuclear energy, climate change, trade and military training. India and China aim to create an Asian power bloc to offset the U.S.-dominated world order.

As India is drawing closer to China, so is Taiwan. The opposition Kuomintang party won a landslide majority of 72 percent of seats in Taiwan’s legislative Yuan on Sunday. Kuomintang’s presidential candidate, Ma Ying-jeou, who is almost ensured a victory in Taiwan’s March elections, has expressed his commitment to improving ties with China. His foreign policy would include resuming negotiations with Beijing on the basis of the “one China, different interpretations” system. As Taiwan draws closer to China, watch for it to become trapped by Chinese imperialism. China will reach out to conquer Taiwan and the United States will not stop it.

The Chinese ambassador to Russia announced on Wednesday that the first tv “Channel of China” will open in Russia on February 8. This television station will broadcast, in Russian, news on Sino-Russian relations, information on how to do business in China, programs teaching Chinese, series on Chinese culture, and Chinese movies. “I hope and believe that this channel will engender positive effects on enhancing mutual understanding, trust and friendship of the peoples, promoting practical cooperation in many areas and pushing the sound and continuous development of Sino-Russian relations,” said Ambassador Liu Guchang.

Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (ldp) is facing its “biggest crisis” ever according to Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda. Even though Fukuda was able to reverse an opposition decision to stop Japan’s refueling mission to U.S. naval ships involved in the Afghan War, his ldp still faces massive opposition from its political rival, the Democratic Party of Japan (dpj). The dpj, which takes a much more anti-American stance, is calling for an early general election as the ldp loses support. Japan’s political turmoil is likely to further fracture the U.S.-Japanese alliance.

Africa, Latin America

The EU will send 4,000 troops to Chad to protect refugees—about 400,000—from Darfur. European leaders have agreed to provide the helicopters and medical equipment necessary to carry out the mission. This continues the trend of increased military involvement from Europe as the world looks there for guidance rather than the United States.

Post-election chaos continues in Kenya. Seven opposition supporters were shot by police during January 17 demonstrations in the capital, according to Kenya’s Orange Democratic Movement leader Raila Odinga. Protests continue in the streets and in parliament, and the flow of supplies through the country has been disrupted as a result.

Michael Shifter, the vice president of policy at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, warned that recent military spending and purchases in Latin America could lead to an arms race: “There is a real risk of it escalating and it could become very dangerous.” Countries topping the list include Venezuela, Colombia, Chile, Ecuador and Brazil.

Anglo-America

Economic trends to watch in the U.S. include a plunging global grain supply going up against soaring demand in 2008. Some analysts are reporting “panic buying” as grain stocks hit record lows. Wheat and rice prices hit all-time highs last month, soybeans hit a 34-year high, and corn, in higher demand thanks to a biofuel push, rose to a nine-month high. At the same time, wheat supplies in the world’s largest exporter, the United States, are forecasted to sink to a 60-year low, and soybeans will be down 68 percent from last year; almost 30 percent of the country is in moderate to severe drought.

Meanwhile, Australian harvests have been battered by drought and Russia and China are taking export cap, levy and tariff measures to restrict outflows of their grain. International experts have called the situation an “unforeseen and unprecedented” shift in the global food system and have said the world is now eating more than it produces and demand may continue to rise further.

An estimated 1,000,000 sub-Saharan migrants have massed in Libya to smuggle themselves into Europe, particularly England. Muslims immigrants in Britain have largely contributed to the problem of “no go” areas where it is dangerous for non-Muslims to enter, Michael Nazir-Ali, a Church of England bishop, has stated. A politically correct storm of denial has followed, but the government’s race relations chief, Trevor Phillips, said, “[T]here is a phenomenon we have to deal with, and I think that the bishop of Rochester was right to raise this.” Racial and religious issues continue to grow as a major issue in the UK.