Middle East

The bombshell of the week was the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate that said Iran responded to carrot-and-stick incentives by halting its covert nuclear weapons program back in 2003. Even the International Atomic Energy Agency greeted the news with skepticism, however. As former U.S. Ambassador to the UN John Bolton said, “When the iaea is tougher than our analysts, you can bet the farm that someone is pursuing a policy agenda.”

That agenda appears to have much to do with the U.S.’s attempts to formulate an exit strategy from Iraq with the help of Iran. “The nie release represents a transformation of U.S. policy toward Iran. … If there is no Iranian nuclear program,” Stratfor writes, “what is the logic of resisting Iran’s efforts in Iraq, rather than cooperating?” (December 3).

Now that official U.S. doctrine is that Iran is not a nuclear threat, we can certainly expect Washington to become far more comfortable with Tehran’s influence in Iraq, a scenario the Trumpet has forecasted for over a decade.

A confident Iran opened a consulate in the Russian region of Tatarstan on December 3 “as part of a network of deals to show the world that Iran cannot be easily isolated” (ibid.). The consulate will facilitate Iran’s conducting business in the surrounding regions. Russia’s motive in agreeing to this was no doubt to aggravate tensions between Iran and the U.S.

Also this week, Egypt opened the Rafah border terminal to allow 1,700 Palestinians to travel to Mecca, in the process facilitating the travel of terrorists in and out of Gaza. That Egypt is willing to thereby violate its agreement with Israel is indicative of a deeper antipathy toward the Jews. But it is not only Arab states that are leaving Israel in the lurch. Monday’s nie, which Israel’s top officials were quick to reject, proves America is abandoning Israel. As the Middle East Times reports, “The U.S. administration, in effect, has just thrown in the towel over Iran’s geostrategic ambitions in the Middle East. Coming hard on the heels of the Annapolis charades, the nie makes clear that the lame duck George W. Bush team has lost the will to defend either the existence of its ally Israel or even its own national security interests.”

Europe

Germany appears poised to go to war in the Balkans. A local Italian politician thinks the Nazis had the right idea in dealing with immigrants. Poland is coming on board with the rest of Europe. European nations are seeking to secure resources in Africa. Many of this week’s headlines would not appear too out of place if they were printed 70 years ago.

A key vehicle for German ambition has been the European Union. Until recently, Poland has been a thorn in the side of the EU, and Germany. But that is changing. “In an effort to improve the country’s reputation of being a trouble-maker on European issues, Poland is set to be the first to ratify the EU bloc’s new institutional set-up, agreed in October,” wrote the EU Observer. Poland’s new prime minister is far more pro-Europe than his predecessor was. Without Poland as a thorn, expect for European integration to run a little smoother. For anyone familiar with the propensity Germans have for wanting control of Poland, however, this is an ominous development.

The pope also made some headlines that, indirectly, impact Europe’s integration and Catholicism’s role in it. In a major document released last Friday he slammed atheism as having led to some of the “greatest forms of cruelty and violations of justice” ever known. He went on to say that Christianity has become too focused on the salvation of the individual rather than with the salvation of others. Any “look who’s talking” comments regarding the “greatest forms of cruelty” aside, reading in between the lines, is the pope saying that Christians should work to convert atheists? Undoubtedly so.

It appears the Europeans are also becoming much more interested in Africa, particularly its resources. EU leaders met with their African counterparts yesterday. Europe, to reduce its heavy resource-dependence on Russia, seeks more influence in resource-rich Africa; this summit was an effort to get at these resources.

The controversial subject of immigration was also discussed at the meeting; European leaders want to stem the flow of illegals from north Africa and elsewhere into the Continent. Back in Italy, one Italian politician shocked everyone when he said Italy could learn a thing or two from the Nazis: “With immigrants, we should use the same system the SS used, punish 10 of them for every slight against one of our citizens,” said Giorgio Bettio, a city councilor in the northern city of Treviso. This is more evidence that Europeans are waking to the strong foreign influence in their midst.

Perhaps the biggest news in Europe right now is what’s unfolding in the Balkans. Tension is mounting over the possibility of independence for Kosovo, a southern province of Serbia. Kosovo wants independence; Serbia says no. Much of Europe, especially Germany, is ready to back Kosovo. The Russians, however, are on the side of the Serbs. The UN deadline for sorting the problem out, December 10, is fast approaching. Kosovo says it absolutely will declare independence—Serbia, that it will never recognize it. The battle lines are drawn, and the probability of compromise by December 10 is roughly zero. The ethnic, religious and political cocktail of the Balkans may soon burst into flames once again. Whether diplomatically or forcefully, watch for Germany to carefully control the situation to its advantage.

Asia

This week witnessed a great thrust by Russia to avow its military strength.

On Friday last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin alarmed Europe when he signed into law the rejection of the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty, a treaty that limited the number of combat vehicles, aircraft, and heavy artillery Russia could deploy along its borders with Europe. Then on Wednesday, Russia deployed naval forces to patrol the Mediterranean Sea and North Atlantic Ocean. This is Russia’s first naval presence in the Mediterranean since the Soviet era, and represents, in the words of the Moscow News, Putin’s latest effort, made possible by a flood of oil money, “to breathe new life into Russia’s armed forces.”

Putin, whose United Russia Party won a 63 percent majority in the Russian Parliamentary “elections” last Sunday, drew criticism for corruption from many EU leaders. The German Chancellor said that “measured by our standards,” Russia’s election “was neither a free, fair nor democratic election.” As Putin makes such power plays, Europe will become more alarmed and more driven to unite. Prophecy shows that Europe’s reaction to Russian ambition is more important that the growing power of Russia itself.

By contrast, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang said on Tuesday that the election “was held smoothly” and that he believed it reflected the will of the Russian people. “We believe the new term of the Russian parliament will make an important contribution to the development of China-Russia relations,” he stated.

China’s taking of Russia’s side against the West was matched by its recent treatment of the U.S. Navy. On Tuesday, Gang “expressed grave concern to the U.S.” about the fact that U.S. naval ships were traversing the Taiwan Strait. He advised that Washington “take prudent actions in this sensitive area.” China is becoming more and more bold in how it deals with the U.S. Navy and in how he “advises” the U.S. deal with Taiwan. How did the U.S. respond? On Thursday America warned Taiwan against holding a planned national referendum on whether it should be a United Nations member, signaling to Taipei that it should be careful of upsetting China. Watch for U.S.-Taiwan relations to further deteriorate as America continues to appease mainland China.

Relations between China and Japan are also rapidly improving. On Sunday, the two completed high-level trade talks and pledged their devotion to forming a regional free-trade zone. This agreement is one of many free-trade agreements developing in Asia in recent times. Expect the Asian economy to become far more integrated in the near future.

Militarily, diplomatically and economically, Asia is challenging the West as a force to be reckoned with.

Latin America, Africa

For the first time since his rise to power in 1998, Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez lost an election: His constitutional referendum, intended to ensure he would remain president for life, was narrowly defeated. Many outlets reported that Catholic leaders opposed Chavez’s proposed changes. This is not the first time President Chavez has been rebuffed by the Roman Catholic Church: As we reported in the August 2006 Trumpet, “… Benedict broke protocol to personally hand [President Chavez] a stern letter counseling him to have second thoughts about the direction in which he was taking his country. Catholic World News called it ‘an extraordinary step’ and a ‘challenge’ ….” Now we see the results of that opposition having a real effect: While President Chavez is certainly not down and out, his continued victories are no longer assured. More importantly, this event showcases the global reach of the Vatican.

In Mexico, the main story this week was unbridled violence. Heavily armed men killed former Mayor Juan Antonio Guajardo Anzaldua, two federal agents serving as his bodyguards, a customs official and two others on November 29. This high-profile case drew attention to Mexico’s spiraling gang problem.

Anglo-America

Although the nie story dominated headlines in America this week, other important stories continued to emerge. The Defense Department’s Defense Science Board Task Force issued a report warning about the potential security threat posed by the DoD drawing on India, China and Russia to supply “the key hardware and software on which the U.S. bases its military and economic superiority.” “Bottom line: globalization of software development, where some of the United States adversaries are writing the code the DoD will depend upon in war, creates a rich opportunity to damage or destroy elements of the war fighter’s capability.”

Meanwhile, the Army’s Future Combat Systems project is proving to be its most ambitious, costly and controversial endeavor. The project seeks to create a light, quick force equipped with drones, robots, sensors and heavily reliant on telemetry, software and networking technology. However, development is progressing slowly—and at 179 percent of its original projected cost. Congress will decide in 2009 whether or not to kill the program.

On Thursday, legislators agreed on proposed legislation that would explicitly outlaw specific intelligence agency interrogation tactics it deems as “harsh.” The announcement coincided with news that the cia had destroyed tapes of the interrogations of two high-level al Qaeda terrorists, an issue that could result in an election-year showdown over American intelligence interrogations.

In financial news, the U.S. Conference of Mayors has predicted that the mortgage crisis will drive 1.4 million more homes into foreclosure next year, pushing national property values down at least 7 percent. “Not that long ago economists said housing was the backbone of our economy,” one mayor said. “Today, the foreclosure crisis has the potential to break the back of our economy, as well as the backs of millions of American families, if we don’t do something soon.”

Britain’s financial sector is facing a different kind of threat, as London has given China’s $200 billion sovereign wealth fund the green light to invest in the UK. Britain has more inward foreign direct investment than any other European nation. The development is raising fears that strategic industries and national security could be compromised.

Elsewhere in Britain, children are growing estranged from their fathers, according to a bbc affiliate’s poll. The study shows one quarter of British children do not consider their father an immediate family member, and that more boys look up to soccer players as role models (25 percent) than look up to their fathers (14 percent).

In Australia, Chinese companies are looking to move in on mining companies. Sinosteel Corp. has made a non-binding $1.1 billion takeover bid for Perth’s Midwest Corp. Meanwhile, Vancouver, Canada’s Northern Peru Copper Corp. has received a $449 million takeover bid from two Beijing-controlled companies. China is one of the world’s largest consumer of minerals.