Negotiations With the Taliban in the Works?
Admitting defeat against the Taliban, it appears the Western alliance in Afghanistan is mulling a deal with the enemy.
Things aren’t getting any better for nato troops in Afghanistan. Since ousting the Taliban from power soon after Sept. 11, 2001, Western troops have battled an increasingly sophisticated and intensified insurgency. The number of attacks in the first two months of this year has been about double that of the first two months last year, and nato is expecting the level of violence to get much greater as the year progresses and the spring thaw makes for better fighting conditions for the Taliban.
Supported by tribes on both sides of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border and given logistical and technical assistance by foreign terrorists, the Taliban has emerged not only as a more-formidable-than-expected fighting force but also as the strongest political force among the locals in eastern and southern Afghanistan. Stratfor intelligence asserts that a military victory would demand a level of casualties unacceptable to Western forces. As such, it appears the U.S.-led coalition is prepared to use nonmilitary options—that is, negotiations with the terrorists—to compliment its current efforts.
Several developments last week point to this, including comments made by British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett implying that nonmilitary means of dealing with the Taliban should be employed. Beckett also met with Ali Jan Muhammad Orakzai, the governor of Pakistan’s North-West Frontier Province and the Pakistani president’s point man on the Taliban, who has already cut deals with the Taliban. The Pakistanis are indicating they would be cooperative in such a scenario—under certain conditions favorable to them.
Such a move—dealing politically with the Taliban—would not only be admitting a failure to defeat the Taliban, but would also legitimize the very terrorist enemy the United States and its allies have been fighting.
Such a progression of events should not be surprising. The last time America won a decisive victory in any theater is increasingly becoming a distant memory. Its enemies are growing familiar with a tried and tested war tactic: Make America’s presence as costly as possible (in lives, and politically), and then simply wait it out. In the end, whoever has the most patience and resolve will win. It is not looking good for the United States and its allies.