To America’s dismay, a revitalized Taliban is flush with confidence: It has boosted the tempo of its attacks against nato forces in Afghanistan and is flinging out warnings to foreign nations participating in the conflict.

In an interview aired on British television October 23, Taliban commander Mullah Mohammed Amin threatened Europe with terrorist attacks for its support of the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan. Stratfor noted, “Whether it is a legitimate threat or a boast fueled by a recent Taliban resurgence, Amin’s remarks are the first indication that the Taliban are changing their thinking from a national to a transnational level” (October 27).

This is a remarkable development. “The Taliban—a nationalist religious movement—threatened to carry out attacks against civilians on foreign soil, blurring the already fuzzy line between the Afghan group and its transnational militant counterpart, al Qaeda,” Stratfor wrote (November 1). Just a few days later, al Qaeda sent a similar message to Canada: Get out of Afghanistan or expect homeland attacks.

Stratfor analysts see the Taliban’s message as part of an effort to fracture support among nato members for their Afghan mission. And though they don’t believe the Taliban has the means to actually stage attacks in Europe—unless it subcontracted them to local jihadists—they view the threat as a major sign of the Taliban’s soaring confidence level.

The Taliban’s tempo of suicide attacks has sharply risen: 80 so far this year, compared to fewer than 20 last year. Reports show that the organization, taking advantage of the handover of responsibility from U.S. forces to ill-prepared nato troops from other states, may be regaining some of the ground it lost in the U.S.-led attack five years ago. And the Taliban’s leader, Mullah Mohammad Omar, recently issued a statement calling on his organization to further intensify its attacks on nato troops.

Economically, the administration of Afghan President Hamid Karzai has had trouble improving the standard of living for Afghans. Crackdowns on poppy production have left many of them without income. Who has stepped into the breach? “The Taliban, of course, have moved to capitalize on the discontent,” wrote Stratfor, “reportedly offering money to new recruits and offering social services, such as medical care, for supporters. In some areas, the Taliban apparently have established parallel governments that include district administrators, judges and other officials” (ibid.).

The shift in momentum is serious enough that the commander of nato forces in Afghanistan warned last month, “By this time next year I would understand if a lot of Afghans, down in the south in particular, said to us all, ‘Listen, you’re failing year after year at delivering the improvements which you have promised to us. And if you don’t do something about it,’ that 70 percent or so will start saying, ‘Come on, we’d rather have the Taliban.’” A startling admission of both allied failure and the Taliban’s resiliency and growing popularity.

Afghanistan is proving to be a far thornier problem than U.S.-led forces anticipated. They face a determined foe, faithfully supported by local tribes on both sides of the mountainous Afghan-Pakistan border. While attention in the West is largely focused on problems in Iraq, the Afghan theater could end up leaving Western forces just as stymied, if not more so. In the “war on terror,” Afghanistan resuming its role as a breeding ground for terrorism is the last thing the West needs.