United States President Donald Trump reportedly told G-7 leaders on Wednesday that Iran is “about to surrender,” claiming, “I got rid of a cancer that was threatening us all.” Is President Trump declaring the Iran war “mission accomplished”?

And is the cancerous Iranian regime really eradicated?

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said yesterday he “cannot say for certain that the Iranian people will bring down the regime,” specifying that such a popular revolt is the only way for full regime change. “You can lead someone to water,” he said. “You cannot make him drink.”
• Hopes that the Kurds will help overthrow the regime are faint. The U.S. has reportedly encouraged Iraqi Kurds (who have a large minority there, as the Kurds also do in western Iran) to cross the border to join the fight. However, in past instances, the U.S. has done similarly and later left the Kurds to be slaughtered (as in Iraq in 1975, the 1980s and 1991, and more recently in Syria and Iraq). Turkish newspaper Türkiye Gazetesi claims Kurdish Iranian groups will only take armed action if the U.S. enforces a no-fly zone against Turkey, another perennial enemy of the Kurds.

The U.S. finishing the war by getting Iran to surrender also assumes Trump won’t cave to pressure from the American public to call off the war because of casualties and other complications.

• This pressure increases after incidents like yesterday’s crash of a U.S. refueling aircraft in Iraq. The U.S. said it was not shot down by enemies nor by friendly fire. All six crew members are confirmed dead.

Blunders like this show the U.S. remains vulnerable to significant disruptions and unnecessary tragedy.

President Trump may act like Iran is defeated. It is not. Yet the consequences of leaving the radical regime in place would be disastrous.