On June 13, at 3:30 a.m., Israel launched Operation Rising Lion. The Israeli Air Force struck dozens of Iranian military and nuclear sites. A secret Mossad-operated drone base within Iran aided the attack.

Just hours after the first explosions of war erupted in Tehran, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, “The objective of Israel’s operation is to thwart the Islamic regime’s nuclear and ballistic missile threat.”

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayotollah Ali Khamenei warned of “severe punishment” for these attacks, and in the days following, both militaries have struck blows.

Israel’s initial strikes focused mainly on Natanz, Iran’s primary uranium enrichment facility, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (irgc) headquarters. It has since expanded its operation to other nuclear and military sites, notably those in Fordow, Isfahan and Tehran. It has significantly weakened Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, destroyed multiple military command centers, struck an air tanker 1,400 miles away in Mashhad, and targeted Houthi leaders in Yemen.

Israel is having astonishing success. Yesterday, it launched its first daytime air strike against Tehran. This morning, it reported full air superiority over the city.

Iran says Israeli strikes have killed 220. These deaths have included several important Iranian officials:

• Mohammed Bagheri, Iran’s second-in-command under Khamenei
• Hossein Salami, irgc commander in chief
• Amir Ali Hajizadeh, irgc commander
• Ali Shamkhani, close aid of Khamenei
• Gholamreza Mehrabi, Iran’s Armed Forces deputy intelligence chief
• 10 senior scientists advancing Iran’s nuclear program

Iran, on the other hand, has had little success despite firing several barrages of drones and ballistic missiles at Israel. As of this morning, Israel says Tehran has launched around 350 missiles overall, largely focused on Tel Aviv and Haifa. Very few have penetrated Israel’s missile defense systems, killing 24 Israelis and injuring hundreds.

The Israeli government says Air Force strikes have decreased Iran’s ability to retaliate. In April and September of 2024, Iran sent over 180 projectiles per salvo. However, in the past few days, it has averaged around 30 to 60 missiles per strike. And the numbers are generally lowering each time.

As of now, the conflict seems entirely one-sided. Israel’s military is larger and more modern. Israel has killed dozens of Iranian military officials and scientists, while Iran has killed civilians. Israel’s air defense systems (Iron Dome, David’s Sling and Arrow) remain operational, while much of Iran’s air defense infrastructure is in ruins. Furthermore, Israel has crippled Hamas and Hezbollah, key players in Iran’s deterrence strategy.

In short, Israel appears unstoppable and Iran looks weak.

Is Iran about to lose its nuclear program? Is the Middle East about to change forever? Will Israel finish the job?

U.S. Involvement

It’s impossible to tell precisely how this war will play out; however, one thing we do know: Israel cannot finish this war without the United States.

For all its courage and strategic brilliance, the Israel Defense Forces has been unable to significantly damage Fordow, Iran’s most critical nuclear enrichment facility. Buried 80 to 90 meters under Mount Qaleh in central Iran, Fordow contains centrifuges for enriching uranium to near-weapons grade levels. James M. Acton, codirector of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said, “If Fordow remains operational, Israel’s attacks may barely slow Iran’s path to the bomb.”

“The expectation has always been that Israel would not be able to reach [Fordow],” said Ali Vaez, International Crisis Group’s Iran Project director, “because it would need the kind of bunker-buster, massive ordnance bombs that only the U.S. has.” Without American-made mops (Massive Ordnance Penetrators, or “Bunker Busters”), Israel can only destroy Fordow with nuclear weapons or a risky, boots-on-the-ground operation.

In short, Israel’s success hinges upon America. Which raises the seemingly perennial question: What is U.S. President Donald Trump thinking right now?

Since the start of his political career in 2015, Trump has been famously unpredictable. The weeks leading up to Israel’s June 13 attack have been no exception. Pundits disagree on the sincerity of President Trump’s public clashes with Netanyahu during this time. Some say the president genuinely opposed an Israeli attack. Others say the disagreement was only a ruse—intended to deceive Iran into believing no attack would come. It’s impossible to divine Trump’s motives.

Whatever his intentions, Iran was caught off guard and the war began. The critical issue is not whether Netanyahu and Trump agreed before June 13, it is whether they are in lockstep now. And the answer, it seems, is no.

Minutes after Israeli fighter jets struck Tehran, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Operation Rising Lion “will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat.”

By contrast, President Trump posted on Truth Social: “Iran and Israel should make a deal, and will make a deal, just like I got India and Pakistan to make, in that case by using trade with the U.S. to bring reason, cohesion, and sanity into the talks with two excellent leaders who were able to quickly make a decision and stop! … [W]e will have peace, soon, between Israel and Iran!”

In an earlier post, President Trump reported a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, in which both agreed that “this war in Israel-Iran should end.”

The U.S. has offered some military aid to Israel, but to this point, it has only been defensive, such as deploying the uss Thomas Hudner to help defend Israel’s skies. In recent hours, 28 American military tankers began crossing the Atlantic—their purpose is unknown.

There is no telling what President Trump might do over the coming days and weeks. Perhaps the Truth Social posts are just further theatrics to keep the Iranians guessing. If not—if the posts are genuine expressions of opinion—it seems the president is more aligned with Putin than Netanyahu right now. Netanyahu wants to continue the war until Iran’s nuclear threat is eliminated; Trump prefers to negotiate peace.

If this is the case, we have arrived at what Peter Wildeford calls “the Fordow paradox”:

The U.S. possesses the military capability to destroy Fordow but lacks the political will, while Israel has the will but not the capability … the U.S. can destroy Fordow while Israel cannot; Israel wants Fordow destroyed while the U.S. does not.

It is impossible to say precisely how this war will play out, but the Bible does tell us what the end result will be, regardless of what happens along the way.

Prophesied Weakness

In The King of the South, Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry writes:

If the Iranian leadership were eliminated, the whole course of Mideast history would change radically for the better, because it is the king. Sadly, Bible prophecy reveals that will not happen.

In Leviticus 26:19, God warned that if our peoples descended into abject sin, He would break the pride of our power. And so He has! … Little Israel has more military might than Iran but fears to use it. The same is the case with Britain. And certainly that is true of America. Our nations fear to use their power—because of our sins. The “pride of [our] power” has been broken!

Over the past four days, Israel has displayed impressive courage and military might. That is truly commendable. However, Bible prophecy says the pride of its power will not return without national repentance.

Our ultimate success will be determined by our relationship with God. If God is for us, we cannot lose. But if God is against us, we cannot win. And Bible prophecy relates that God is against us and is cursing us.
—Gerald Flurry

Without repentance, Israel can win only a partial victory. To truly eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat, Israel does not need America—it needs God.

As for America, Mr. Flurry had some choice words in The King of the South:

Superpowers cannot survive in this evil, warring world without the will to wage long, hard wars. … We cannot negotiate a victory. The only way to stop Iran is through superior power and the will to use it.