
The Euro’s Chance to Replace the Dollar
You can no longer trust the United States to pay back its debt. That is the assessment of the influential ratings firm Moody’s, which lowered the U.S. rating to Aa1 from a previous perfect AAA, which it had held since 1917. The downgrade “reflects the increase over more than a decade in government debt and interest payment ratios to levels that are significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns,” Moody’s said in the statement.
“Moody’s downgrading is a symbolic event,” EuroIntelligence wrote. “The last of the triple-A ratings is now gone. But it is the analysis that should worry us more. Moody’s writes that without fiscal reform, the U.S. is headed from a public sector deficit of 6.4 percent last year to 9 percent in 2035. If that came to pass, we could be heading towards a global debt crisis.”
We explained this problem in 2011: “Like an alcoholic in a self-delusional stupor, America still can’t admit it has a debt problem.”
In the wake of Monday morning’s announcement, the dollar weakened against all of its G-10 counterparts, while the euro jumped 1 percent to $1.1274.
In a market where trust is everything, the dollar’s weakness has become the euro’s opportunity. Recent policies of U.S. President Donald Trump have caused investors to doubt the reliability of the greenback and shift to its strongest competitor. “The euro has recently risen sharply,” Germany’s Handelsblatt wrote on May 13. “European politicians and central bankers are already dreaming of being able to compete with the dollar as a global reserve currency.” Will the dreams become reality?
Since the start of the year, the euro has climbed by as much as 11 percent, reaching $1.15 in April. Strategists at Morgan Stanley and Société Générale consider an exchange rate of $1.20 per euro achievable, while Deutsche Bank is even predicting a rise to $1.30.
Trump’s policies and the astronomical accumulation of debt are turning out to be an explosive mix. Larry Fink, head of the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, told Handelsblatt in an April 29 interview:
The role of the dollar as a reserve currency is being questioned because we in the U.S. are running huge budget deficits and relying on foreign investors to finance them. This will not go on forever if we don’t solve our budget problems. Having the international reserve currency is a privilege. We should not squander it.
The U.S. economy is dependent on foreign investors. If nothing changes, the fate of the nation depends on their trust and mercy.
Around 60 percent of global central bank reserves are invested in dollars, and only 20 percent are in euros. But this could change quickly. Regarding Europe’s opportunity to use the dollar’s weakness to its advantage, Fink said:
In the short term, Europe will definitely be one of the winners, as can be seen from the capital flows from the U.S. to the Continent. But I measure the future viability of the EU above all by whether it will finally succeed in creating a genuine capital markets union and a genuine banking union, and whether it will succeed in reducing the excessive bureaucracy and speeding up approval procedures.
Many in Europe are not willing yet to take these or other steps to unify their systems. Europe, unlike the U.S., consists of many different nations with different interests. Historically, these nations have only united when under threat.
“What emergency might unify Europe again?” Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry asked in “How Europe Will Unite!” in our April 2006 Trumpet issue. Citing the late Herbert W. Armstrong, he explained that such a unification could be triggered by a financial crisis—e.g. the collapse of the dollar. Mr. Flurry wrote:
The dollar’s collapse could trigger a world financial crisis and make the European currency an attractive alternative for investors around the world. What other currency comes close? If the euro became the world’s new reserve currency, Europe would be flooded with money and would dominate world markets. …
We can be sure that the dollar is going to collapse. The massively debt-burdened American economy simply can’t remain afloat much longer. Many investors are already pulling out of the sinking dollar and putting it into the rising euro. When this trend plays out, it will strongly empower and unify Europe.
The fate of the dollar and the euro are closely linked together. While many have doubted the euro’s ability to take the dollar’s spot, more and more are seeing this as an increasingly likely possibility. However, given that many hurdles yet remain, most do not expect this to happen anytime soon. Yet Bible prophecy reveals that Europe’s unification will be sudden. In “A Financial Crisis Is Imminent,” Mr. Flurry explained:
If this banking system upheld by U.S. debt collapses, Europe’s banks will fall like dominoes. Those who want to immunize Europe against the U.S. financial contagion in the current situation cannot do so. That’s because the EU currently has 27 nations, and each nation still retains much of its sovereignty—so passing new financial regulations is extremely difficult.
But a crisis is bound to stimulate major reform. It “could suddenly result in triggering European nations to unite as a new world power, larger than either the Soviet Union or the U.S.,” Mr. Armstrong wrote.
This unification is prophesied in Revelation 17. Verses 12-13 read, “And the ten horns which thou sawest are ten kings, which have received no kingdom as yet; but receive power as kings one hour with the beast. These have one mind, and shall give their power and strength unto the beast.”
Looking at this prophecy, Mr. Armstrong foresaw that only a severe crisis could bring this prophesied unification of European leaders about as in the days of the Holy Roman Empire. Seeing the interdependence of global banking, Mr. Armstrong foretold a financial crisis. Now, three decades later, Europe’s need to form into a single superpower is greater than ever—and so is the chance of the crisis that will trigger this event.
Analysts, commentators, investors and world leaders start to see the beginning of the fulfillment of this prophecy. However, not knowing the end result, their analysis is often flawed. To truly understand these events, we have to see them in light of Bible prophecy. To see the full picture, read “A Financial Crisis Is Imminent.”