Israel is well into its second year of war, and circumstances are as chaotic as ever. The Israel Defense Forces (idf) is back in Gaza fighting Hamas. The United States is escalating its strikes against Yemen’s Houthis. Iran is closer than ever to developing a nuclear bomb. Israel is now neighbors with a country run by a jihadist offshoot of al Qaeda: Syria. Internal divisions against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threaten to tear the country apart.

Then there is Hezbollah. The Lebanese terrorist group, until recently considered by many to be the world’s most dangerous non-state military, is still in Beirut. It still holds influence over Lebanese society and still desires to impose an Iranian-style Shiite Islamic revolution on Lebanon. Its goal is still to wipe Israel off the map. But since Israel invaded Lebanon late last year, Hezbollah has been largely neutralized as an immediate threat. This weakening has allowed anti-Hezbollah factions to take control of Lebanon’s government for the first time in years.

Lebanon is a complicated country. It still poses a threat to Israel, albeit a diminished one. However, it also may provide an opportunity for peace. But is it too good to be true?

The idf entered Lebanese territory, fought Hezbollah, dropped bunker-buster bombs on Beirut, and killed Hassan Nasrallah. The world braced for how Hezbollah, far more powerful than Hamas, would strike back. Instead, Israelis entered Lebanese territory to negotiate peace.

So far, it has been just talk. But considering the subject matter, this preliminary step is monumental. On March 11, the United Nations facilitated a meeting between Israel and Lebanon in the southern Lebanese town of Naqoura. Israel’s prime minister’s office confirmed the parties “agreed to form three joint working groups” that will, among other issues, hold “discussions on the Blue Line and points still in dispute.” The Blue Line is the ceasefire line from the year 2000 that currently acts as a de facto border.

So Israeli and Lebanese officials are attempting to settle the border issue and negotiate a peace agreement. One source told Israel’s N12 television network, “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s policy has already changed the Middle East, and we want to continue the momentum and reach normalization with Lebanon.” Another official told the Times of Israel: “The goal is to reach normalization.”

In an interview with Tucker Carlson released on March 21, U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff confirmed just how ambitious the goal is: “I think Lebanon could normalize with Israel, literally normalize, meaning a peace treaty with the two countries. That’s really possible.”

Israel has fought wars with terrorist groups in Lebanon since the 1970s. Its withdrawal to the Blue Line in 2000 came after its 18-year military occupation of some parts of the country. Its recent assassinations, air strikes and ground incursions against Hezbollah are still fresh in our mind. For many Lebanese, all they have ever known about the Israelis is that they are the enemy.

Lebanon and Israel agreed to a maritime border as brokered by the United States under Joe Biden in 2022. This was considered a diplomatic triumph. A peace treaty and full normalization would be tremendous. If it happens, it could be Israel’s biggest geopolitical change since its peace agreement with Egypt in 1978.

Victory in War and Peace?

Israel’s war with Hezbollah last year was mostly successful and largely facilitated the current peace talks. In two months, Israeli troops neutralized most of the 150,000 precision-guided missiles and rockets Hezbollah had amassed, dismantled its military infrastructure, killed most of the top leaders of its elite Radwan Force, and bombed its longtime leader, Nasrallah, the same day that Netanyahu told the UN “we will not allow Iran to tighten the noose of terror around our neck.”

Netanyahu stated in a Nov. 26, 2024, speech about the war that, after a year of conflict with Israel, “it is not the same Hezbollah. We have pushed them decades back.”

Hezbollah’s diminution enabled Lebanon’s civilian government to retake control. Lebanon’s presidency had been vacant since 2022 because of Hezbollah’s interference. But in January, Lebanon’s parliament voted in Gen. Joseph Aoun as president, despite Hezbollah’s opposition. Of all the statements Aoun made in his first speech to the legislature, the one that received the longest standing ovation was his assertion that he would disarm Hezbollah.

Lebanon’s political establishment is evidently tired of Hezbollah leadership. It opposed Israel, but it is also apparently tired of fighting it. When Israeli forces directly violated Lebanese sovereignty by invading last year, the Lebanese military not only declined to reinforce Hezbollah, it didn’t fight the Israelis at all.

A telling sign that Lebanon is ready for negotiations is that Israeli media can report on normalization talks without sparking mass protests from the Lebanese people and denial from the Lebanese government.

A poll late last year by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy found that a majority of Lebanese surveyed agreed that “internal political and economic reform is more important for our country than any foreign-policy issue, so we should stay out of foreign war.” A majority of Christian and Sunni Muslim respondents also endorsed “political negotiations for a Palestinian-Israeli agreement,” implying that, under certain circumstances, they would want their government to recognize Israel’s right to exist.

Donald Trump’s Peace

This peace initiative started neither in Israel nor in Lebanon. According to Axios, it is U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration that has prodded the two sides to come together.

“The working groups will be led by diplomats from the U.S., Israel and Lebanon,” a White House official told Axios. “We hope that these negotiations will begin as early as next month” (March 11).

LUDOVIC MARIN/AFP via Getty Images

In 2020, President Trump’s first administration brokered agreements between Israel and four Arab states—the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco, in that order—which all agreed to recognize Israel’s right to exist. As celebrated as those Abraham Accords were, an agreement with Lebanon would far surpass them. The U.A.E., Bahrain and Morocco had indirect relations with Israel for decades. Sudan was an enemy but never an existential threat. Lebanon, by contrast, is right across the border and has been an imminent threat for decades.

“He wants the Abraham Peace Accords to be augmented,” Witkoff told Carlson, “and we’re in the process of doing it. We think we’re going to be announcing several new countries who are joining.”

Is the world going to see an Israeli-​Lebanese agreement in the style of the Camp David Accords? Is Israel about to convert an archenemy into an ally?

Warning Signs

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy poll also suggested 79 percent of Lebanese had a positive view of Hamas, including a majority of Christian respondents. Nearly all respondents, 99 percent, said the Arab world should “immediately break all contacts with Israel in protest against its military action in Gaza.”

Hezbollah, though beaten down, remains a threat to Israel and to Lebanon’s internal politics. It still benefits from high levels of support among Lebanon’s Shia Muslim population, not to mention Iran’s resilient regime.

Even if a critical mass of Lebanese leaders want peace today, can Israel trust Lebanon to still want peace tomorrow?

After President Trump brokered the Abraham Accords in his first term, Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry wrote in our January 2021 Trumpet issue: “We all want peace. But sadly, these recent peace pacts have a deadly flaw.

“Biblical prophecy gives us deep insight into these agreements. It actually foretells that moderate Arabs will unite, somewhat like we are now seeing. But they are prophesied not to cooperate with the United States or Israel!

“A prophecy in Psalm 83 exposes a hidden reality behind these peace deals. We are already in the beginning stages of its fulfillment.”

The Hidden Reality

Psalm 83 forecasts a coalition of Middle Eastern peoples: “For they have consulted together with one consent: they are confederate against thee: The tabernacles of Edom, and the Ishmaelites; of Moab, and the Hagarenes; Gebal, and Ammon, and Amalek; the Philistines with the inhabitants of Tyre; Assur also is joined with them …” (Psalm 83:5-8).

The prophecy states these groups ally so “that the name of Israel may be no more in remembrance” (verse 4). These peoples form a coalition for this purpose through “crafty counsel” (verse 3). Strong’s Concordance defines “counsel” as “company of persons (in close deliberation); by implication, intimacy, consultation, a secret.” This implies confidential conversations unknown to the outside world.

Neither biblical nor secular history record the existence of such an alliance. Therefore, Mr. Flurry states that Psalm 83 is a prophecy for our day. He explains in his booklet The King of the South: “You must know who the modern descendants of these people are to understand just how timely and relevant this prophecy is.” These include Saudi Arabia (the Ishmaelites), Jordan (Moab and Ammon), Syria (the Hagarenes) and the modern Palestinian Arabs (the Philistines). Assur was the capital of Assyria, which in biblical prophecy refers to modern-day Germany. “Germany is part of this alliance and is, in fact, the power behind it!” Mr. Flurry writes.

That passage also mentions Gebal and Tyre. Tyre, located in southern Lebanon today, was destroyed, but nearby is a rebuilt city with that name. It is a stronghold of Shiite Hezbollah. Gebal (Byblos) is a Christian-majority city in the north. So this prophecy implies that all of Lebanon, not just Hezbollah holdouts near Israel’s border, will be part of the plot to wipe the name of Israel from historical memory!

“While it seems that these nations are moving away from radicalism and violence,” Mr. Flurry wrote in his 2021 article, “we must look beneath the surface. After all, this prophecy reveals that they will take ‘crafty counsel’—subtle and shrewd dealing. This sure prophecy shows that these nations will ally to try to blot out the name of Israel forever! That is intense hatred!”

Mr. Flurry wrote this regarding the U.A.E. and Bahrain, Gulf states that have never been at war with Israel. Lebanon, in contrast, has a long history of war with Israel. It is a security threat directly on Israel’s border.

Even if the two countries come to an agreement, Lebanon will not remain Israel’s friend. The Lebanese will contribute to the worst attack in Israel’s history! As Israel—and the U.S.—go down this path, they are walking into a trap of their own making.

That doesn’t mean there is no cause for hope, however. Verse 18 shows that God is working these events out for a grand purpose: “That they may know that You, whose name alone is the Lord, Are the Most High over all the earth” (New King James Version). This is the ultimate purpose and fulfillment of any prophecy of God. God is letting circumstances play out to teach the whole world who He is. This includes countries like the State of Israel that have a long history with Him.

Until that happens, Israel and all nations have hard lessons to learn. But once they are learned, God promises peace to Israel, Lebanon and all mankind. This peace, unlike the pieces of paper signed by man today, will last forever.