Three months after Syrian President Bashar Assad was ousted by the Sunni Islamist rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (hts), Syria is back in civil war. This time, hts is the new status quo government; its leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, is Syria’s new president; and the current rebels are Assad regime loyalists.

Syria is seeing large-scale battles between the new government and anti-hts militias. On March 4, in the southern city of al-Sanamayn, a militia led by warlord Mohsen al-Haymed killed security personnel belonging to the new government. hts responded by sending forces to al-Sanamayn. Haymed’s group used to belong to the anti-Assad bloc but reconciled with Assad in 2018 and collaborated with his forces.

On March 6, other Assad loyalists attacked hts positions, including military positions in Jableh, Beit Ana and Daliyah in Syria’s coastal Latakia Province. Also that day, Assadist Brig. Gen. Gaith Dalah announced the creation of a “military council to liberate Syria” from the “terrorist, jihadist organizations” currently in government.

“Former Assad regime members will very likely form the most effective insurgent cells, given their preestablished networks,” the Institute for the Study of War think tank wrote. “Former Assad regime members already have the preexisting networks that they can leverage to rapidly organize insurgent cells. These networks are military, intelligence and political networks and criminal syndicates who were regime supporters and lost significant economic and political influence in the aftermath of Assad’s fall.”

The Institute for the Study of War assesses that this insurgency is likely not under one unified command structure. Instead, various groups of Assad loyalists and other anti-hts factions have a shared vision but are institutionally separate. They have names such as the Syrian Popular Resistance and Shield of the Coast Brigade.

hts’s response: genocide.

Bloodying the Mediterranean

Sharaa’s forces accused the Alawites, the religious minority Assad came from, of causing the unrest. The Alawite heartland is concentrated in Syria’s coastlands, where the unrest has occurred. Two days of clashes starting on March 6 left 745 civilians dead, mainly in “revenge killings” by Sunni Muslims against Alawites; 125 hts-led forces and 148 Assad loyalists also died.

The Damascus government has tried to distance itself from the bloodshed. It claimed “individual actions” were responsible for the civilian death toll. Sharaa’s office said it was forming an independent committee to “hold accountable … anyone who is involved in the bloodshed of civilians, mistreats civilians, exceeds the state’s authority, or exploits power for personal gain. No one will be above the law.”

Whether or not Sharaa personally approves of the violence, it is still happening under his watch. And people didn’t join hts, an offshoot of al Qaeda, who were afraid to get their hands dirty.

When Sharaa ousted Assad in December, the world held its breath. Assad was a bloody megalomaniac who ran the most totalitarian state in the world by at least one metric. But that didn’t make a terrorist group affiliated with al Qaeda the “good guy.” Sharaa quickly reformed his image from battle-hardened jihadist to unifying statesman.

After the Taliban ousted Afghanistan’s secular government in 2021, the Taliban claimed it had learned its lesson and would implement a reformed, more tolerant rule. But the new government quickly reverted to its Islamist, totalitarian roots. Many worried Syria would tread a similar path.

hts’s situation is more complex than the Taliban’s. hts had to share control of Syria with other militias and adopt a more moderate, inclusive approach to placate some of these groups. But if Latakia’s carnage is any indication, fears of a Taliban-type takeover are justified.

What About Europe?

The other big difference between hts and the Taliban is their foreign sponsors. The West still isn’t sure how to work with the Taliban, while powers like China have open relations. But after Assad fled Damascus, many countries in the West—especially Europe—were eager to do business. The German and French foreign ministers visited Damascus to speak to Sharaa. Germany and Denmark said Sharaa’s victory meant Syria was no longer a trouble spot and they could stop accepting Syrian refugees. French President Emmanuel Macron invited Sharaa to visit him in Paris.

Europe’s leaders know that a jihadist changing his ideology is as likely as a leopard changing his spots. They must have suspected most of hts’s early rhetoric of unity and peace was a facade. They must have known ethnic cleansing like what we’re seeing in Latakia would happen. Yet they still hurriedly welcomed Sharaa’s Islamist government into the diplomatic mainstream. Why?

Syria is too big of a prize for Europe to pass up. If Europe can bring Syria into its influence, it would mean huge opportunities. It would give a means of sending home the millions of Syrian refugees in Europe. It could remove Iran’s influence from the Mediterranean Sea for good. It would give leverage over Russia and its military bases there. If a chance to attain all of this means a deal with the devil—even a temporary one—then so be it.

Forecasts

The Trumpet watches for Europe to move into Syria because of a prophecy in Psalm 83. It speaks of a coalition of Middle Eastern peoples forming “that the name of Israel may be no more in remembrance” (verse 4). Neither biblical nor secular history record such an alliance either in composition or purpose. Because of this, Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry has pointed to it as prophecy for our day.

The alliance includes “[t]he tabernacles of Edom, and the Ishmaelites; of Moab, and the Hagarenes; Gebal, and Ammon, and Amalek; the Philistines with the inhabitants of Tyre; Assur also is joined with them …” (verses 6-8).

“You must know who the modern descendants of these people are to understand just how timely and relevant this prophecy is,” Mr. Flurry writes in The King of the South. “Here are the modern names of these nations, as taught at Ambassador College under Herbert W. Armstrong: The Ishmaelites are Saudi Arabia; Moab and Ammon both refer to Jordan; the Hagarenes anciently dwelled in the land known as Syria today; the Philistines are the modern Palestinian Arabs; Gebal and Tyre are Lebanon. One people listed here that lies outside the region is Assur. At one time, this was the capital of Assyria, which is the term that biblical prophecy uses for modern-day Germany.”

Other verses show this alliance would form in part to counter Iran and its proxy empire. Syria under Assad was an ally of Iran. But the Trumpet expected Syria to switch sides from Iran to Germany and Europe. This is exactly what happened with Assad’s downfall. (See here for more information.)

But Sharaa’s victory over Assad was not the closing chapter of Syria’s unrest: It was merely a pause.

Europe is now in a dilemma. hts is starting to show its true colors. Continuing to back it would make Europe look bad. But hts’s enemies are Assadists. Supporting them would look bad as well, not to mention extremely hypocritical.

Europe has choices to make. Syria’s present violence could easily rupture into a far more complicated mess. Unforeseen actors could become Syria’s new power players. But whether Europe doubles down on its support for hts or finds a new sponsor, expect Germany to be Syria’s most influential backer.

To learn more, request your free copy of The King of the South.