Report: China Cannot Invade Taiwan
China does not have the military strength to invade Taiwan, according to a survey of 52 American experts and 35 Taiwanese experts released on Monday.
If accurate, this means China would have to take Taiwan peaceably or weaken it through quarantine or blockade.
Context: Beijing has long sought to take the island it deems its own. China has an anti-secession law that states Taiwan must be taken by force if negotiations fail.
Details: The survey, conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies last November and December, gathered opinions from:
- Experts with experience in the United States government and academics
- Think-tank experts who have testified in Congress
Only 27 percent of the U.S. experts believed China could win an amphibious assault, a belief largely dependent on U.S. intervention. Of the Taiwanese experts, only 17 percent believed China could successfully invade Taiwan.
Quarantine or blockade: However, the experts do believe China could successfully quarantine or blockade Taiwan.
- 91 percent of the the U.S. experts said China could restrict Taiwanese trade through nonmilitary means (a quarantine); 63 percent of the Taiwanese experts agreed.
- 81 percent of the U.S. experts said China could impose a military blockade around the island; 60 percent of the Taiwanese experts agreed.
Semiconductors: In the long run, a less destructive takeover of the island could be worse for the global order than a military takeover because of Taiwan’s semiconductor production.
Taking Taiwan by force would likely destroy this industry. But if China pressures Taiwan to surrender with a quarantine or blockade, it could control this vital industry.
The big picture: For decades, Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry has warned that Taiwan will fall into Chinese hands.
His forecast is based on the sure word of Bible prophecy. Certain prophecies even indicate China will control Taiwan’s semiconductor trade.
Learn more: Read “Why Taiwan Is So Important.”