Britain’s vote to leave the European Union shocked the world. Stock markets plummeted. The pound reached its lowest level in 30 years. EU leaders met over the weekend for crisis talks. But what has actually happened? And what are the immediate implications of the Brexit vote?

Has Britain Now Left the EU?

No. Britain is still an EU member and will probably remain so for at least the next two years. The process for leaving the EU is laid out in Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty—hence all the talk about “Article 50” in the British press.

Under Article 50, the United Kingdom would give the EU official notice that it plans to leave. At this point, the UK would have two years to negotiate its exit with the EU. These two years can also be extended, but only if all parties agree.

Britain’s post-Brexit relations with the EU would have to be laid out in a separate trade deal. This must be agreed on by every EU nation and approved by all their parliaments. The Financial Times wrote:

EU leaders, more than 30 national, European and regional assemblies also have a veto. So, for instance, a trade deal could be vetoed by six separate Belgian parliaments, including the assembly of the 76,000-strong German-speaking community. Some referendums on the issue would also be likely.

Two years is a very short amount of time to hammer out a good deal for the UK, and then get it approved, organize the necessary referenda, etc. Therefore, many UK politicians want to stretch out the negotiating time as long as possible. One way to do this is for the UK to delay triggering Article 50—i.e. to wait before sending in its official notice that it is leaving. This is the source of the current argument between Britain and the EU. Most EU officials want to get Brexit over and done with as soon as possible.

European Parliament President Martin Schulz said EU lawyers were examining whether they could kick out Britain even sooner than the two years required by the treaty. This seems unlikely, as Britain would challenge it in court, and court cases are rarely concluded quickly.

However, no one has ever left the EU before (unless you count Greenland, which is hardly a useful precedent in this case). The EU is in a volatile situation already with the migrant crisis and euro crisis both threatening to tear it apart. The Telegraph noted:

The treaties say that all Britain’s rights and obligations must remain for two years once Article 50 is activated. But Lord Hill, Britain’s commissioner, quit on Sunday, and Downing Street said it had no plans to replace him, and Jean-Claude Juncker told ukipmeps to pack their bags. Is the legal order fragmenting? What other clauses in the treaties—which protect British expats on the Continent, among other things—will now be ignored without consequence?

We are in unchartered territory. Article 50 provides some kind of road map—but we don’t yet know if it will be accurate.

So Britain’s Definitely Going to Leave the EU?

The vote almost certainly puts Britain on the path out of the EU, though there is a small chance that, in the short term, it could be blocked. Parliament could possibly overrule the referendum. Some, like Labour M.P. David Lammy, have called on Parliament to do just that. However, the government does not have to consult Parliament in order exit the EU. Furthermore, it seems unlikely that Parliament would risk stirring the wrath of the nation by completely ignoring the referendum vote.

In the lead-up to the election, top Leave campaigner Boris Johnson suggested that Britain could vote to leave the EU but then use that vote to negotiate a better deal with the EU, which would then be put to a second referendum. Leaders in both the EU and UK have ruled it out, and EU leaders have said they won’t keep Britain around. While things like a parliamentary block or a second referendum are possible, they’re very unlikely.

Will Britain Hold New Elections?

The Brexit vote has pushed British politics into its worst turmoil in generations. By voting Brexit, the population of the UK has rejected the opinion of almost all its political leaders. Prime Minister David Cameron has said he will step down. Almost all the top leaders in the Labour Party have resigned in an effort to oust Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.

Both of Britain’s major parties are in chaos, but this does not mean there will be new elections. Britain’s prime minister is elected by Parliament. Because the Conservative Party has more than half the seats in Parliament, whomever the Conservatives choose to replace David Cameron as their leader will become the new prime minister. Therefore, it is up to the Conservative Party to choose Britain’s next leader, and it does not have to put it to a national vote.

But, again, almost anything is possible. Parliament can choose to call early elections, which some are calling for, but it seems unlikely, at least until the more immediate post-Brexit chaos has calmed down.

The Scotland Question

While England and Wales voted to leave the EU, Scotland voted to stay. The margin was not huge—62 percent voted to stay and 38 percent to leave—but it’s enough to give the Scottish National Party (snp) an excuse to push for another vote.

It’s not yet clear how much the EU vote has changed the Scots’ opinions on independence. If the snp held a second vote and lost again, it could cripple the party. Therefore, it has talked about holding a second referendum, but it’s not a forgone conclusion. As Fraser Nelson wrote in the Spectator, it would be foolish to rule one out:

[snp Leader Nicola] Sturgeon is one of the most formidable politicians in Europe, let alone Britain. She senses that she can change the political weather, especially given that almost all her main opponents were against Brexit. And, as a result, that a lot of people in London are going a little bit mad right now. The whole vibe of … Project Fear meant that David Cameron and others had to predict the end of the union, amongst other signs of societal collapse, if Britain voted out. So for months, the UK government was reinforcing the snp’s message: that Brexit would mean another independence referendum.Cameron’s unexpected decision to quit on Friday, rather than stay on for longer and provide a period of stability, has created a vacuum in Westminster. There seems to have been no contingency plan upon losing the referendum—which nationalists in Scotland and Ireland are now exploiting. And rather than confront the nationalists, a lot of Remainers, even in the cabinet, seem to be actively on the lookout for the meltdown that they promised: keen to point to the arrival of the plague of locusts, etc. …So Sturgeon’s opportunity lies not so much in the Brexit vote but in the current Westminster meltdown. Labour? In chaos. Tories? In [chaos]. And the rest? As anyone’s Twitter feed will attest, a lot of people in Westminster and Fleet St. are not really thinking straight. …It might be weeks, perhaps months, before we get any sense out of the UK government. The old order has resigned, a new order will take months to arrive. …But the post-Brexit political meltdown being suffered by Sturgeon’s opponents means she faces perhaps the greatest chance she’ll get to pursue a second vote.

Sturgeon has also said the Scottish Parliament may try to block Britain’s exit from the EU. It could certainly slow things down, however the British Parliament would ultimately be able to get around any Scottish bloc—though the fight would probably increase the acrimony between Scotland and England.

Northern Ireland

In Northern Ireland, 55.8 percent voted to remain in the EU and 44.2 percent voted to leave. This gives hard-line Irish republicans an opportunity to push for Northern Ireland to join the republic, and it throws open a whole host of questions about Northern Ireland’s future.

Sinn Fein, the political party associated with Irish Republican Army terrorist groups, has called for a referendum on the sovereignty of Northern Ireland. At this stage, such a vote seems unlikely.

While some low-level political violence still continues, violence over the status of Northern Ireland has largely died down. One reason for this is because Britain and the Republic of Ireland are both in the EU. The border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the small island has largely disappeared. Will it return after Britain leaves the EU? And will the violence return with it?

There are more questions. Under the Belfast Agreement, those born in Northern Ireland have the right to be a citizen of the UK or the Republic of Ireland. Fintan O’Toole wrote in Guardian Unlimited:

What does that mean in the new dispensation? Can someone be both an EU citizen and not an EU citizen? Likewise, the agreement underpins human rights through the “complete incorporation into Northern Ireland law of the European Convention on Human Rights.” Though not strictly required by Brexit, the leave leadership is committed to removing the convention from UK law—in other words, to ripping out a core part of the peace settlement.

Gibraltar

Gibraltar overwhelmingly voted to stay in the EU: 19,322 votes to 823. It fears that if Britain leaves the EU, it will be very hard to remain free of Spanish rule. Already since the vote, Spain has called for “cosovereignty.”

Despite the vote, Gibraltar’s government still wishes to stay with the UK. First Minister Fabian Picardo rejected cosovereignty, saying “Gibraltar will never be Spanish, in whole, in part or at all.”

However, much of Gibraltar’s economy relies on the smooth passage of goods and workers across its border with Spain. With Britain outside the EU, Spain could threaten to decimate Gibraltar’s economy unless the territory agreed to compromise. Ahead of the vote, Picardo warned that it would be hard for Gibraltar to avoid cosovereignty in the case of a Brexit.

Will Europe Fight Back?

This is (literally) the billion-dollar question, and no one is really sure what the answer is. Will the EU try to punish Britain? On one hand, Germany’s economy relies on exports, many of which go to Britain. The German industry lobby bdi has already warned that it would be “very, very foolish” to impose trade barriers between the EU and UK.

On the other hand, nations are already preparing to hold their own anti-EU referenda. If Britain gets a good deal, EU leaders feel that others may want to quit too. Germany is also desperate to prevent southern European nations from quitting the EU and setting up their own trade barriers with Germany. Keeping free trade going in Europe is an existential issue for Germany. Would it sacrifice some trade with Britain to preserve its trade with the rest of Europe?

No one is sure of the answer to this question, causing many to fear that the UK is in for a punishment.

These are just some of the questions raised in Britain by the Brexit vote. Not all of these dangers will materialize, and there will be others we have not foreseen.

Further complicating matters, just about all the intelligentsia, not just in Britain but around the world, were against Brexit. They forecast the sky would fall should Britain leave. They are expecting a disaster and will seize on every piece of evidence to prove themselves right. There are genuine concerns, but some bogus ones will also be exaggerated.

Regardless of any media bias, it is clear that Britain is going through its worst political turmoil in generations. The integrity of the UK is at risk. The economy is in danger. Some of these areas will stabilize over the coming months, others may not.

For a general outline of what Britain can expect in the months and years ahead, read our article “What’s Next for Britain?” from the latest print edition of the Trumpet magazine.