However you interpret public statements about al Qaeda’s “decimated” core leadership or how its militias are “on the run,” traipsing down “the path to defeat,” the organization’s influence and existential threat remain strong—and it’s growing stronger.

A June 4 rand Corporation report titled “A Persistent Threat—The Evolution of Al Qaeda and Other Salafi Jihadists” detailed the growing threat of al Qaeda and its affiliates. Prepared for the Office of Secretary of Defense, the report noted that while al Qaeda has been significantly decentralized since the death of Osama bin Laden, its influence has never been stronger. Its strategic focus has shifted from the “far enemy” in the West, thanks largely to United States’ counterterrorism measures, giving a semblance of retreat. But al Qaeda and its affiliates have ramped up attacks on the “near enemy” in the Middle East and North Africa, particularly against U.S. allies and interests.

Salafi-jihadist groups rose by 58 percent from 2010 to 2013—doubled in just three years. Most of these groups are based in Libya and Syria.

Attacks perpetrated by al Qaeda affiliates rose significantly between 2007 and 2013, according to the report. Terror at the hands of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (isis) increased the most at 43 percent. Somali-based al-Shabaab upped its militant activities by 25 percent. Attacks from Jabhat al-Nusrah in the Levant rose by 21 percent, and those from al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (aqap) increased by 10 percent.

Salafi-jihadist groups, the report explained, can be categorized into four tiers: core al Qaeda; al Qaeda affiliates such as aqap, al Shabaab, Jabhat al-Nusrah, al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (aqim) and, until February, isis; unaffiliated but supportive Salafi-jihadiast groups; and al Qaeda-inspired individuals and networks such as the Tsarnaev brothers and the 2009 Fort Hood shooter.

These Salafist militants espouse “pure” Islam of the Salaf—Muslims’ pious forefathers. They champion violent jihad as a personal religious duty with a seemingly insatiable appetite for wanton murder and chaos. Most Salafist groups consider the United States to be the main enemy—the world’s chief infidel. One group even targets Western tourists as “callers for pornography [responsible for the] spreading of debauchery.”

As Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry discussed in a Key of David program, Osama bin Laden viewed the West in the same way. “Stop your oppression, lies, immorality and debauchery that has spread among you,” bin Laden wrote in an open letter to Americans. “We call you to be people of manners, principles, honor and purity, to reject the immoral acts of fornication, intoxicants, gamblings. It is saddening to tell you that you are the worst civilization witnessed by the history of mankind.” Bin Laden claimed that it was these evils that motivated his jihadist aspirations.

His successor Ayman al-Zawahiri explained in “General Guidelines for Jihad” that “the purpose of targeting America is to exhaust her and bleed her to death, so that it meets the fate of the former Soviet Union and collapses under its own weight as a result of its military, human and financial losses.”

With so much ammunition of pent up hatred, the threat against the United States will continue to increase, as the rand report observed. On June 24, abc News reported that al Qaeda groups in Yemen and Syria are collaborating to construct a new generation of “creative,” non-metallic, peroxide-based explosives that can beat detectors in airports. These explosives can be smuggled in shoes, clothes, toiletries and cosmetics, much like the shoe bomb incident of 2001, the underwear bomb episode of 2009, and the foiled printer cartridge bomb incident of 2010. Al Qaeda’s growing threats become even more worrisome considering recent incidents of aircraft hijacking, albeit far from the 9/11 scale.

The threats posed by al Qaeda and its affiliate groups are real and spreading dramatically. While jihadist groups may be focusing less on the “far enemy,” their threat still affects American allies and interests in the Middle East and around the world. There is a way to win this war. For more about God’s plan to end terrorism, read Mr. Flurry’s 2003 article “Why We Cannot Win the War Against Terrorism.”