Europe’s leaders fall out of key on Ukraine

In the latest installment of the Eurovision Song Contest, Europeans seized the opportunity to show solidarity with Ukraine and thumb their noses at Vladimir Putin.

But away from the enthusiasm for Ukraine’s winning entry at that festival of campy pageantry, shallow symbolism and bad English, the Continent’s most powerful capitals have begun singing from a different song sheet.

After weeks spent fretting over what would happen if Russia crushed Ukraine, Western European leaders are now worried about what might happen if Ukraine actually wins. Ukraine’s recent success in pushing Russian troops out of some occupied territory has prompted leaders from France to Germany to Italy to conclude that a once-unthinkable Ukrainian victory is now a distinct possibility. 

Even as European leaders sympathize publicly with Ukraine’s struggle and in some cases have gone to great lengths to support the country, they also fear that what French President Emmanuel Macron last week called a “humiliation” of Russia could create a whole new set of problems, Western officials say.  …

Even as Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have said repeatedly it would be up to Ukraine to determine the conditions for a halt to hostilities, they’ve recently underscored their preference for a ceasefire, sooner rather than later. …

Macron also declared that, after peace was achieved, Europe would have to construct “new balances of security” — the kind of phrase that sets off alarm bells in Central and Eastern European countries, where it is seen as code for rewarding Putin with a say over what happens on their territory.

Scholz struck a similar note during a lengthy telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday. After the call, Scholz said via Twitter that he had pushed three points with Putin, the first of which was: “There must be a ceasefire in Ukraine as quickly as possible.” …

Even as they stress their support for Ukraine, the fact that the leaders of the EU’s three largest countries have adopted nearly identical talking points on peace negotiations just as Kyiv has the upper hand in its fight suggests the trio is trying to pressure Ukrainian leaders into negotiations.

So far, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is having none of it.