How Glenn Youngkin beat the Democrats in Virginia

When a Republican wins in a reliably Democratic state, it’s big news. That’s exactly what happened in Virginia, where newcomer Glenn Youngkin defeated former governor Terry McAuliffe. The Republican won even though McAuliffe had a well-oiled political machine and high name recognition, and was campaigning in a state Joe Biden won by ten points only a year ago. All those advantages were for nought. The Commonwealth will have a Republican governor for the first time in over a decade. It is likely Republicans will win the other two state-wide races for the lieutenant governor and attorney general and could win the House of Delegates, which had been under firm Democratic control.

For Democrats, fright night stretched beyond Virginia into New Jersey, where the incumbent Democratic governor is struggling to keep his position. The race is still too close to call, but the Republican is ahead with 87 per cent of all the votes counted.

Since Democrats easily carried both states in the last presidential and gubernatorial races, these contests must send a shiver through the party. The Virginia race was particularly important. To understand its implications for 2022, we need to understand how Youngkin won.

The key was independent voters, especially the suburban voters who rejected Trump in 2020. Youngkin persuaded many of those voters, as Trump could not. The vote also shows Virginians are none too pleased with the performance of the Democrats, who control both state and national governments.

McAuliffe’s loss shows his party cannot recapture those disaffected voters by constantly asserting every opponent is a Trump wannabe or white supremacist. They tried that with Youngkin, and it didn’t work. Instead, what Democrats have to do is put break free of the party’s far-left and put forward a moderate agenda, not only in Congress but in executive nominations, bureaucratic regulations, and presidential orders. Most of all, they have to deliver effective results on the ground. They will be held accountable if they don’t, as the Virginia and New Jersey elections show. So far, on a national level Democrats have delivered only failure: inflation, onerous mandates, empty store shelves, racially-divisive school lessons, and a humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan. Those are fierce headwinds for local candidates.