Cyprus assassination attempt paints picture of emboldened Iran

On Sunday, Oct. 3, reports emerged that an armed Azeri hit man had been sent to assassinate Israeli business people in Cyprus. Israeli politicians pointed the finger at Iran. …

Iran’s reported attempt to assassinate Israeli business people on Cyprus marks another milestone of this game’s deterioration and sets off alarms. Is Iran’s policy shifting? Is Tehran under new President Ebrahim Raisi abandoning its characteristic caution [Ha!] and avoidance of direct military engagement? …

“A foreign intelligence agency, possibly the Mossad, is believed to have warned Cypriot police of the impending attack. Several weeks ago, a similar incident occurred in the Colombian capital of Bogota, forcing two Israeli business people to flee their homes after an intelligence warning was conveyed to local authorities about plans to harm them. …

Either way, Israel is monitoring Iran’s evolution with growing concern. The July 2021 drone attack on the Israeli-operated Mercer Street tanker that killed two crew, the major Iranian military drill on the Azerbaijan border this week, the public and violent IRGC attacks on Kurdish militants in Iraq and the general rhetoric by top Iranian officials are prompting concern that the Iranians’ well-known aversion to a public clash with Israel or other rivals is weakening.

Israel perceives greater chances of an open clash with Iran, though the risk is still categorized as low. But Iran’s desire to respond to reported Israeli operations seems to be growing as its own aggressive activities around the world are exposed.