Ethiopia matters to the world
On 21 June, Ethiopians voted in long-awaited and twice-delayed parliamentary elections. These were the first polls held under the premiership of controversial Nobel Peace Prize winner Abiy Ahmed, in a country now embroiled in a civil war in the northern region of Tigray, a border dispute with neighbouring Sudan, and a regional spat with downstream Sudan and Egypt over Ethiopia’s mega-dam on the Blue Nile River – the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
To be more accurate, some Ethiopians voted. Despite being the second most populous country in Africa with perhaps 110 million people (the most recent reliable population data is nearly 15 years old), only 37 million registered to vote. The electoral board had hoped to register 50 million.
Amid the civil war in Tigray and insecurity in many other parts of the country, which has displaced millions, the election had clearly not provided sufficient motivation for everyone to enrol. In part, this was because the outcome was a foregone conclusion. Out of 547 parliamentary seats, elections did not take place in about 100 constituencies due to security concerns or deficiencies in election administration. In a further 100 or so constituencies, only one candidate was on the ballot. Although many votes are still to be counted and no results have yet been announced, it is apparent that Abiy’s rebranded ruling party, Prosperity, will have a commanding majority in parliament. Based on numbers of seats, Abiy is near certain to win outright in the three most populous regions of the country: Oromia, Amhara, and the Southern Nations, Nationalities and People’s Region (SNNPR)…
Ethiopia, for so long a linchpin in the stability of Horn of Africa, has entered a period of instability. Ethiopia matters: it remains one of the world’s fastest growing economies, and, by the year 2100, is projected to become one of the ten most populous countries in the world, ahead of Brazil and Bangladesh. Abiy sees himself as an agent of Ethiopian transformation and renaissance. But much of the optimism brought on by initial political and economic reforms has now dissipated. In victory, some hope that Abiy will offer magnanimity; others fear further division and turmoil from his administration.
