The British monarchy has a succession problem

What will happen to the United Kingdom when the queen dies?

Car mechanic, broadcaster, stamp collector, fashion icon, the longest-serving monarch in the history of the United Kingdom — no one has a resume like Queen Elizabeth II’s. But even remarkable lives must someday end, as the death of her husband Prince Philip reminded the world last week. And with the queen turning 95 on April 21, planning for the transition is an increasingly pressing issue, for the royal family and for the union over which she presides. 

It’s clear that the U.K. is a country of Elizabethans (to steal a turn of phrase from Australia’s former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, a prominent republican). What’s less clear is whether it’s a country of monarchists. 

While the queen remains personally popular, a series of public relations disasters has tarnished the rest of the royal family. A recent poll found that more than 70 percent of people in Scotland, Wales and central England approved of the queen. Only 50 percent of respondents in Wales and central England approved of her heir, Prince Charles. In Scotland, support for Charles was just 41 percent.  

At question is not whether the U.K. will abolish the monarchy once Elizabeth dies. The institution itself continues to enjoy broad support, according to a poll from October. It’s whether — with the U.K. under unprecedented strain from Scottish separatism and the aftereffects of Brexit — any future monarch will be able to provide the same steadying influence as the one whose hand has been on the tiller for more than half a century.