A new foreign policy

Many of the world’s most life-changing events have taken place without a bang, almost quietly. A few days ago, an experienced Greek diplomat, a German judge and a close adviser to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sat down at the same table in a small building next to the German Chancellery in Berlin. Such a scene would have been unthinkable a few years ago, as the only mediators between Greece and Turkey since 1950 have been American. Dean Acheson, Clark Clifford, Cyrus Vance and Richard Holbrooke are some of the better-known mediators for Cyprus or over the Aegean.

Things change rapidly, however, around us and across the globe. America has retreated into its shell and the traditional foreign policy mechanisms have collapsed. A very active and capable ambassador may convey a different image to the domestic audience, but the truth cannot be hidden and, unfortunately, Erdogan knows this all too well.

Here in this neighborhood, we tend to experience the tectonic shifts on the global stage like a distant echo. But it is time to throw out the old tools we used to analyze the world. And I don’t think that we can rule anything out anymore. What I mean, for example, is that no one should be surprised to see Moscow stepping in as mediator if tensions flare up again between Greece and Turkey. It has done so on many fronts and playing such a role between two NATO members would boost its prestige. Nature hates a vacuum and the United States has left a big one that others will fill.