Pushing the Philippines‑U.S. alliance over the cliff

The termination of the 1998 Philippines-U.S. Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) initiated by the Duterte administration will mark a historic disruption of American power projection in the Asia-Pacific, and deal a serious blow to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea–based maritime order in Southeast Asia. U.S. President Donald Trump shrugged off the termination, and it is not likely that the alliance will survive this episode of mutual disdain.

Regionally, the end of the Philippines-U.S. alliance will upend others’ national security calculus.

Rodrigo Duterte indicated that he means to eventually scrap the other Philippines-U.S. defence agreements given flesh by the VFA, particularly the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Arrangement (EDCA), and the foundation of the alliance, the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty. Both his Secretaries of Defense and Foreign Relations, staunch believers in the alliance, have fallen silent. This does not bode very well for either side, nor for the rest of the region.

Without the VFA, the Philippines-U.S. alliance becomes a hollow shell of formal commitments on paper, with no substantial means of implementation for purposes of preventing or responding to security threats…

The end of the Philippines-U.S. alliance will create a hole in the U.S. security umbrella that China is posed to fill. Diminished U.S. presence will undoubtedly embolden further adventurism beyond the so-called “grey zone”. …

Thus, Duterte’s decision to push the Philippines-U.S. alliance over the cliff serious affects the geopolitical balance. It will loosen the final restraints of the current regional order, and eventually may deliver the not only Philippines, but the rest of the region, to the tender mercies of a revisionist power.