Geopolitics abhors a vacuum: Why America’s withdrawal from the Middle East—and Russia’s rise—may make war inevitable

Beneath the surface, I see a different U.S. policy taking shape. In the midst of these military responses, I am witnessing what seems to be a fighting retreat.  Expect a strong U.S. response only when U.S. lives are lost or under imminent threat.  As the President’s National Security Advisor said on the Sunday talk shows:  “The President said we want to be out of the Middle East.  But what we need to do is leave on our terms….”

As the U.S. recedes, Russia advances. In the wake of the Suleimani drone strike, Russian President Vladimir Putin is crisscrossing the Middle East, meeting with Syrian strongman Bashar al-Assad, and stopping in Ankara to broker a cease-fire in Libya.

Nature, they say, abhors a vacuum.  So too does geopolitics. And so, Putin steps forward as America steps back.  Russia runs the show in northern Syria.  Assad stands unchallenged – given a second life by Russian backing.  Syria is now, if we speak freely, a protectorate of Russia.

Russia seeks a naval base with access to the Mediterranean.  Syria provides it.  Russia seeks air force bases in the region.  Syria provides them.  A small price for Assad to pay to keep his place in power, and his head on his shoulders.

Beyond Syria, the Russians systematically widen their influence, becoming a regional power broker.  Egypt holds joint exercises with Russia.  In Turkey, nominally a member of NATO, Russian influence increases as America’s influence on Ankara ebbs.  Saudi leaders welcome Putin.  In Geneva, the fate of Syria is decided.  At the table:  foreign ministers from Turkey, Iran and Russia.

Absent:  America.