Battle stations: Asia’s arms race hots up

A decade-long push by Beijing to modernise its military forces and advance its territorial claims in contested waters in Asia is prompting a response from neighbours, which some commentators argue risks spawning a regional “arms race” that increases the threat of conflict.

“Fear and uncertainty caused by China’s rapidly-increasing economic, military, and strategic might has been a key driving force behind the regions’ renewed interest in the recent military build-up,” says James Johnson, a visiting fellow at the UK’s University of Leicester and author of The US-China Military & Defense Relationship during the Obama Presidency. “The scale and momentum risks a new and destabilising arms race.”

Annual defence spending in Asia Pacific has more than doubled since the turn of the century to $450bn — more than $200bn of that by China — and by 2035 half the world’s submarines will patrol Indo Pacific waters, according to Australia’s recent defence white paper. The region is forecast to surpass North America as the world’s biggest spender on weapons by 2029, according to Jane’s Defence Budgets by IHS Markit.