Migrant policy conflict could spell the end for Merkel

Since fall 2015, when almost a million people arrived in Germany as a result of Merkel’s liberal refugee policies, this discomfort has mutated into open rejection. And now, in June 2018, the CSU has had enough, even if there isn’t currently an obvious trigger for their vexation aside from approaching Bavarian state elections scheduled for mid-October. They would like to see the immediate end of the Merkel era — there is really no other way to interpret comments made recently by CSU party leadership. And to achieve that goal, they are prepared to sacrifice the decades-long partnership between the two conservative parties.

“Merkel’s political approach has reached the end of its tether,” says a CSU parliamentarian. Discussions about Merkel within the CSU are characterized by rage and malice. And CSU leader Horst Seehofer is threatening to defy Merkel’s constitutionally guaranteed power to determine policy guidelines…

Ironically, it is Merkel’s own sister party has triggered the most significant political crisis in her almost 13-year tenure as chancellor. It remains unclear how it will end, but chatter about the chancellor’s potentially imminent demise has now become a constant at every water cooler in Berlin…

According to a survey commissioned by DER SPIEGEL, the majority of German citizens believe that the CDU and the CSU should split and go their separate ways. And if that were in fact to happen, and there are plenty of indications it might, it wouldn’t just be the end of Merkel’s tenure. It would also herald the end of a party system that has shaped Germany for the last 70 years and provided a fair degree of stability, particularly when compared to Germany’s neighbors. And it would mark the beginning of a government crisis: It seems unrealistic to expect that the CDU and SPD would stay in power as a minority government or that they would bring the Greens on board to replace the CSU. At SPD headquarters in Berlin, preparations are already being made for new elections this fall.

Merkel still has a week to avoid the break. She hopes to be able to come up with her “European solution” to the refugee problem by July 1, the CSU having opted to give her a brief respite even though there are some in the party who argued against doing so.

The way the chancellor is being pushed around by her sister party these days has degenerated into an embarrassing political spectacle. Still, the chancellor has chosen to confront the challenge and is fighting hard to retain her hold on power. Or at least her hold on her office.