The resurgence of al Qaeda

Nearly seven years after the killing of Osama bin Laden, al-Qaeda is numerically larger and present in more countries than at any other time in its history. Indeed, the movement now boasts of some 40,000 men under arms, with approximately 10,000–20,000 fighters in Syria; 7000–9000 in Somalia; 5000 in Libya; 4000 in Yemen; a similar number dispersed throughout other countries across the Maghreb and Sahel; 3000 in Indonesia; and approximately 1000 in South Asia. From north-west Africa to South East Asia, al-Qaeda has been able to knit together a global movement of some two dozen local franchises…

The thousands of hardened al-Qaeda prisoners Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi freed, who fled to Libya, Turkey, Syria, Yemen, and other locales, endowed the movement at an opportune moment with combat expertise, leadership skills, and foot soldiers. Then, the military coup that subsequently toppled Morsi greatly enhanced al-Qaeda’s credibility and appeal: validating its new leader Ayman al-Zawahiri’s repeated admonitions to Muslims not to trust the West or have any faith in the sanctity of democratic processes.

In fact, long before the Arab Spring had run its course, al-Awlaki accurately intuited that regional and international counterterrorism cooperation would both slacken and become more inconsistent as governments were lulled into a false sense of complacency that the threat of terrorism had passed. He also correctly anticipated that voices sympathetic to al-Qaeda’s aims and objectives would henceforth have greater freedom and acquire new platforms from which to propagate their views. Finally, al-Awlaki perceived that the spreading unrest would create new geographic openings and opportunities for al-Qaeda’s intervention…

Accordingly, with ISIS lamentably still active and al-Qaeda clearly resurgent, today we arguably face the most perilous international security environment since 2001, with serious threats emanating from not one but two terrorist movements who both have cultivated a myriad of branches and affiliates, thereby enhancing their capabilities and ensuring their longevity.