Ethiopia’s unrest invites global competition

For the second time in two years, Ethiopia has declared a state of emergency to try to quell violent unrest…

The root of the issue is this: Ethiopia’s central government is not representative of the majority of its population. The ruling coalition, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front, is run by the Tigray ethnic group. Tigrayans hold a monopoly on power but account for only 6 percent of the country’s population. The Oromo and Ahmara ethnic groups, on the other hand, each constitute about a third of the population. They have no formal representation in government, and when they have tried to make their voices heard, the EPRDF typically resorts to violent crackdowns to silence them. Bouts of unrest have plagued Ethiopia six times since 1960, and if history is any guide, the latest crisis will get worse before it gets better…

This means that for countries interested in establishing a foothold in the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia could soon be reopening for business. This is true regardless of which political faction eventually comes out on top in Addis Ababa…Candidates are plenty. Russia has an interest in establishing a presence in the Horn so that it can keep pace with the U.S. and Turkey… Until recently, Iran was a patron of both Sudan and Somalia, but then Saudi Arabia paid each to switch sides and Iran lost its place. Ethiopia could be a replacement, but the countries’ sectarian differences would be an obstacle.