An arms race toward global instability
The United States is gearing up once more for a struggle between giants. On Jan. 19, the Pentagon released a new National Defense Strategy, the first in 10 years, in which it called strategic competition the “central challenge to U.S. prosperity and security” as Russian and Chinese military capabilities expand. U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis echoed that concern Feb. 2 in the preface of the Nuclear Posture Review, arguing that the United States could no longer afford to pursue a policy of nuclear arms reduction given the steady growth of the Chinese and Russian nuclear arsenals. The U.S. Ballistic Missile Defense Review, due for publication soon, is expected to emphasize the same key points, namely that the United States should bolster its missile defenses to better repel threats as strategic competition builds.
Among these documents, the common thread is that great power competition, and not terrorism, will be the next focus of the U.S. security strategy. Washington has outlined how it will move to redirect its resources, capabilities and approach to overcome the challenges that the growing confidence and abilities of China and Russia pose. Beijing and Moscow, however, show no sign of backing down. And new, destabilizing weapons technology is entering more common use, while long-standing arms control agreements are deteriorating. These developments together promise to usher in a new era of international competition that could rival the Cold War…
Even before the latest string of U.S. defense and policy reviews, the emerging power competition with China and Russia was on Washington’s radar…Yet counterterrorism was the true focus of the U.S. security strategy, not only under the last president but also under his predecessor. Enduring conflicts in the Middle East and South Asia continue to draw the lion’s share of military deployments, resources and focus to this day. China and Russia, meanwhile, have taken advantage of the United States’ diverted attention, making great strides in building arsenals and honing their military capabilities. In a few areas — such as anti-ship missiles, rocket artillery and ground-based air defense — the two Eurasian countries may even have surpassed the United States.
In light of these trends, Washington has every reason to be worried about a great power rivalry. But trying to stay ahead in the competition will only accelerate it. As the United States works to fortify its defenses, China and Russia will redouble their efforts to strengthen their own capabilities. The two countries — revisionist powers that want to alter the current geopolitical balance, whether in the South and East China seas or in the former Soviet Union — won’t give up their geopolitical ambitions just because the United States tries to foil them.
