America literally can’t afford more military adventurism
According to the CBO, fiscal reality is coming, and far faster than most Washington policymakers appear to realize…
In late June, the agency released “An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2017 to 2027,” revising estimates released only three months before. Alas, the news got worse. On the cover, the CBO announced that “over the next decade, outlays are projected to grow more quickly than revenues, thereby increasing the debt.” Yet “growth in real GDP” will be only “modest over the coming decade.” That is double bad news…
The estimated deficit this year is $693 billion, up $134 billion from the January estimate. And that’s a $109 billion increase over the number in 2016. The projected deficit next year will be “only” $563 billion, rising to $689 billion in 2019. The red ink will bust the trillion dollar mark in 2022 and near $1.5 trillion by 2027—all without a fiscal crisis, which caused the previous, temporary, jump over a trillion dollars. The accumulated deficit over the coming decade is expected to be $10.1 trillion, averaging more than $1 trillion annually.
The annual deficits pose a short-term burden. The debt they create will persist far longer…
The five big spending blocks are Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, net interest, and military. The first two benefit a growing population of elderly who believe they paid for these benefits and vote in disproportionate numbers. Continuing rapid increases in health care outlays ensure that Medicaid costs will continue to rise; the only question will be how fast. The fourth category is likely to explode as the Federal Reserve backs away from its policy of near-zero interest rates. Which leaves military outlays bearing a large fiscal target.
While Americans will sacrifice if America is threatened, they aren’t likely to look kindly at proposals to cut Social Security and Medicare because the Europeans, with a larger population and economy than America, don’t want to cut their social programs in order to hike military outlays.
