Middle East

Pakistan’s Islamist-leaning opposition is gaining ground. On Sunday, opposition leader Nawaz Sharif spurned his house arrest after an angry crowd gathered outside his home and police disappeared. The triumphant Sharif then set off to lead a protest march to Islamabad. Earlier in the day, a protest in Lahore, Punjab province’s capital, turned violent. By the time it was all over, President Asif Ali Zardari had bowed to Sharif’s main demands, fearing further political unrest. An agreement was reached to reinstate the chief justice, whose cause Sharif has been championing, as well as other judges, and to reverse constitutional changes made by former President Pervez Musharraf. In response to the government’s climb-down, Sharif called off the “long march” protest rally. This is a significant victory not only for Sharif, but also for the Islamists who support him, including Jamaat-e-Islami, an influential Islamist political party that advocates an Iranian-style religious dictatorship for Pakistan and maintains close ties with the radical Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. Back in 1998 when Sharif was previously prime minister, he proposed legislation designed to transform Pakistan into an Islamic order based on a literal interpretation of the Koran. The fight against the Islamist insurgency in Pakistan will become even more difficult with the progress of these political forces—which either oppose the use of force to fight the jihadists or at least take a soft stance. This, in turn, will not be a welcome development for the U.S.

Iran announced a $3.2 billion natural gas deal with China on March 14, highlighting the ineffectiveness of economic sanctions against Tehran. The three-year deal will develop a field in the Persian Gulf that is part of what is said to be the world’s largest natural gas reservoir. The agreement came just two days after the U.S. renewed sanctions against Iran for another year.

Former Iranian President Mohammed Khatami pulled out of Iran’s presidential race on March 17. According to Iranian media reports, Khatami withdrew to make way for former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, who appears to be emerging as a joint candidate of the reformists and pragmatic conservatives. Though Mousavi is now considered a moderate, he has a history as a hardliner from the days when he was prime minister under the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Whoever wins the June 12 election, Iran’s course toward dominance of the region will not change.

Europe

France is on strike again. Unions claim that up to 3 million took to the streets Thursday—though police estimate that the number was 1.2 million. Schools and public buildings shut for the day, and public transport was reduced as demonstrations were held in 200 towns across France. Unions are demanding that the government do more to protect workers as unemployment reaches 2 million and is expected to continue rising. A poll conducted by the ifop institute found that 78 percent of the French support the strikers—the highest approval rating in a decade. As the economy tanks, watch for the unrest to get worse.

Switzerland is also having trouble economically. The Swiss National Bank has announced it is actively engaged in depreciating the Swiss franc. This will make Swiss goods artificially cheaper abroad, and make imports into Switzerland more expensive. Naturally other European countries will not be happy about this. They don’t want Switzerland exporting its problems to them. Watch for the global financial crisis to cause further international tension.

Asia

President Dmitri Medvedev vowed on Tuesday to press forward with plans to rearm and reorganize the Russian military. He said nato was still intent on expanding closer to Russian borders and told military chiefs to raise the combat readiness of their troops. He promised massive rearmament, weapons upgrades and organizational changes that will pare the Russian officer corps down to a leaner, yet more efficient, leadership unit. All these changes, first revealed last October, represent the most dramatic transformation of the Russian military since World War ii, according to the Washington Post. This Russian military renaissance is bound to frighten Europe and hasten the formation of a prophesied pan-European army. For more information, read our January 2004 Trumpet article “Russia Frightens Europe—and Fulfills Bible Prophecy.”

On Wednesday, the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force commissioned its largest fighting ship since the Second World War. The nearly 650-foot-long helicopter destroyer Hyuga is nearly twice the size of the ship it is replacing. Its design represents a significant increase in the Japanese Navy’s capacity to project and sustain force further afield (Stratfor, March 19). The Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force already ranks as the second-most powerful navy in the world. Both Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso and Japanese opposition leader Ichiro Ozawa have been ardent advocates of the development of Japan’s military capacity. All it would take to transform Japan into one of the deadliest martial forces on the planet is a final sidelining of Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution—in which Japan renounces the right to wage war. Forces that could bring about such a move are already at work behind the scenes.

Africa, Latin America

Madagascar joined the ranks of African nations in chaos when its legitimately elected president was ousted by a man six years too young to constitutionally hold the country’s highest office. After a week in which tanks took over the presidential palace, Madagascar President Marc Ravalomanana resigned from office and turned authority over to a navy admiral on March 17. Andry Rajoelina became president on March 18. The Southern African Development Community will not acknowledge the new president and has urged the African Union and the international community to do the same, saying it “condemns in the strongest terms the circumstances that led to the ousting of a democratically elected president of Madagascar.” The new leader has already suspended parliament and set up transitional bodies to run the country. For more on the havoc that political violence has caused and will cause, read our Feb. 6, 2008, article “Kenya: The Unseen Danger in Political Violence.”

Mexico’s government has responded to the U.S. ban on Mexican trucks on U.S. freeways by placing tariffs on 90 U.S. products—a move that will truly hurt the already reeling U.S. economy. Prior to this, U.S. President Obama held a meeting with Brazilian President da Silva that did not resolve Brazil’s ethanol issue. The U.S. currently imposes a 54 percent tariff on ethanol imports to protect the domestic corn ethanol industry; Brazil produces ethanol from sugar cane much more cost effectively. Stratfor observed that for these sorts of issues to arise so early in his administration, it is clear Obama is favoring domestic politics over relations with Latin America. This could conceivably cause problems as the administration tries to secure its border and combat the Mexican drug cartel problem—a curse financed by the U.S. itself.

Anglo-America

On Thursday, the White House announced more handouts: $5 billion for automakers’ suppliers. The Obama administration said it would create a fund to support troubled parts suppliers, but the obvious question remains: Where will it end?

On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced it would pump another $1 trillion into the financial system, buying up mortgage securities and treasury bonds. However, U.S. treasury bonds could be the next bubble to burst. In the aftermath of the popped housing bubble, which the Trumpetanticipated in 2003, investors are pumping money into the perceived safety of the T-bill. With high prices and low yields, treasuries could be the next market to crash—and China knows it. Investors are worried about statements by Premier Wen Jiabao last week when he said, “We have lent a huge amount of money to the U.S., so of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets.” Even if investors don’t react drastically to Wen fueling fears about treasuries, the United States will probably still have problems selling more than $2 trillion in new treasuries slated for the 2009 fiscal year.

In other financial news, 2008’s richest man in the world, American investor Warren Buffett, commented last week on the global financial landslide that turned into an avalanche last September. He said that the national economy came days—or perhaps hours—away from destruction, and since then, “It’s fallen off a cliff.” Buffett, 78, added that “not only has the economy slowed down a lot, people have really changed their behavior like nothing I’ve seen. … When people get scared, they change their buying habits. When they quit buying as much, people lay off. We are in a very, very vicious negative feedback cycle.” However, Buffett maintains that the U.S. will pull out of the crisis—because it always has. For more on that, read our March 17 article “Where Warren Buffett Is Wrong.”

hiv/aids infection rates in Washington, D.C., are higher than in West Africa, according to the District’s hiv/aids Administration. A “generalized and severe” epidemic is defined as 1 percent infection. D.C.’s rates are triple that. The 2008 epidemiology report found that over 15,000 residents are infected, and nearly 1 in 10 of all residents ages 40 to 49.

In other health news, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported Wednesday that 40 percent of all American births in 2007 occurred out of wedlock.