Is Austria About to Elect a Far-Right President?

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Is Austria About to Elect a Far-Right President?

There could be big economic and geopolitical implications.

All of Europe was shaken by Austria’s presidential elections last week. Since World War ii, Austrian politics has been dominated by two main political parties—the Social Democrats (spo) and the People’s Party (ovp). Every Austrian president has come from one of these two groups. Until now. On April 24, these two mainstream parties came in fourth and fifth place. Austria is now the latest in a long line of European countries to be hit by a “political earthquake.”

Six years ago, the spo and ovp won a combined 80 percent of the vote. This year, they won a little over 20 percent. A recent poll found that only 12 percent of Austrians think their country is moving in the right direction; 52 percent say it is not. Across Europe, nations are losing confidence in their traditional leaders, and they’re turning to new parties and parties that used to be considered taboo. Confidence in the whole political system has been badly shaken.

Even more concerning is the election’s winner. Norbert Hofer won 35.3 percent of the vote as the candidate for the Freedom Party of Austria (fpo). The Freedom Party is usually described as “far right.” It is certainly from the right-wing fringe.

Hofer will now face off against the second-place candidate, Alexander Van der Bellen, from the Green Party, who won 21.3 percent of the vote. This mirrors Germany’s regional elections held on March 13, where the two parties to make major gains were the fringe right and the Greens. Both those on the left and right are looking for new champions and more radical solutions.

The country has now “entered a new phase in its history,” Andreas Koller wrote in the Salzburger Nachrichten. “The consequences of Sunday’s election are nowhere close to becoming clear.”

The fpo has broad appeal across the country, as a map of their election victories makes clear

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Matthew Karnitschnig and Vince Chadwick, writing in Politico, described Austria’s troubled history with the far right:

Though much of Austria’s political and media establishment tried to spin the result as a protest against the ruling elites, it will reawaken memories abroad of the country’s long flirtation with right-wing politics. In the 1980s, the Austrians elected former UN Secretary General Kurt Waldheim to the presidency, even as he failed to address questions about his activities as a Wehrmacht officer in World War ii. The U.S. placed Waldheim on a so-called watch list, barring him from entering the country.Austria again attracted unwanted international attention in the 1990s during Haider’s meteoric rise. A charismatic politician, [former fpo leader Jorg] Haider took his right-wing, populist message from his base in a poor southern province to the national stage. In 2000, the Freedom Party joined a coalition with the People’s Party, breaking a taboo against populist parties in the EU and earning Austria international censure.

The result of Austria’s election process shows the major instability in Europe caused by the migrant crisis, fear of Islamic terrorism, and the slow-rolling economic crisis. And it threatens to make those crises worse.

Austria is central to Europe’s north-south transportation networks. Because of this, it has one of the highest number of immigrants per head in Europe. It is at the center of the migrant crisis. “The dominant narrative attributes the far right’s rise to one factor: the so-called refugee crisis,” wrote Benjamin Opratko, a political scientist at the University of Vienna for the Jacobin magazine. “Since the beginning of summer, the issue has dominated public discourse like no other, and the far right has been quick to exploit it.”

“While the government sent conflicting signals, oscillating between toughness and compassion, the fpo’s position was as clear as it was uncompromising: The purported wave of immigration needed to be stopped and Austrian borders protected,” he continued.

Spurred by the rise of the fringe right, Austria’s center-right leadership is desperate for a solution to the migrant crisis. Earlier this year, it played a key role in stopping the number of migrants streaming into the European Union from Greece, by meeting with Greece’s northern neighbors and persuading them to seal their borders.

Now they’re threatening to shut one of Europe’s core arteries. The Brenner Pass, leading from Italy into Austria, is the only major road through the Alps in the region. Over 10 million vehicles use the pass each year. Germany is Italy’s top trading partner, and the Brenner Pass is one of the most direct routes between the two, traveling up into Austria and then on into Bavaria.

Austria is building a fence across the pass and putting in place the physical infrastructure necessary to reintroduce border controls. Closing that border would divide Europe further, increase the anger in the Continent, and place a major strain on Italy’s economy.

Austria’s response to the rise of the fringe right will only make the crisis worse—further fueling the rise of the right.

The last time far-right groups rose this dramatically things spiraled out of control, and they ended up taking over countries across Europe shortly before World War ii. Austria’s presidency is largely a ceremonial role, though it does have some power. But if the fpo’s support holds up, it could take the chancellery too.

The parallels with the 1930s are worrying. For more on this connection, see the infographic from the latest Trumpet magazine, “The Fringe Is In.”