Prisoner swap: Another defeat for Israel

Israel will not carry out any more lopsided prisoner swaps like the one agreed last week in which Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit was freed in exchange for 1,027 Palestinian terrorists, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak has indicated. “A state that seeks to survive cannot allow herself to continue down the slippery slope” of prisoner swaps like the Shalit prisoner exchange, he said. Israeli leaders are apparently going back to the drawing board to create a new policy for prisoner exchanges.

Don’t expect Hamas to buy it.

The Israeli media campaign is in response to Hamas leaders openly declaring that they will launch more kidnapping attempts in order to free thousands more Palestinian terrorists. “We will continue to abduct Israeli soldiers and officers as long as there are Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails,” Ahmed Jabari, the commander of Hamas’s military wing, was quoted as saying.

Israeli opposition leader Tzipi Livni has declared that the swap was a big mistake, saying it had strengthened Hamas and undermined Israel’s deterrent capability. Clearly, she is right.

Hamas is celebrating—and with good cause. It sees the Egyptian-brokered swap as a great victory. As the Wall Street Journal reports, Hamas has increased its stature among Palestinians by demonstrating it can secure the release of over 1,000 prisoners.

Courcy’s Intelligence Brief reports:

The Hamas interpretation of the deal is particularly interesting. Senior Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh made much of two points. The first was that included amongst the released Palestinians were prisoners from a range of Palestinian factions, in addition to Hamas, including Fatah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, the Popular Resistance Committees, and Fatah al-Intifada. The point Haniyeh was making was that Hamas regards Fatah, Islamic Jihad, and the other Palestinian factions “as brethren.” …The second point is of greater significance. Haniyeh said that there was great symbolism in the fact that the released prisoners came not just from the West Bank and Gaza Strip but also from Jerusalem and Israel (“the lands of 1948”). He said: “This deal once again delineated the borders of Palestine … the borders of Palestine are the borders of this deal.”

Among Egyptians, the deal is seen as an indication of the return of Egypt to a leading regional role—this being a result of it turning its back on the Camp David peace deal with Israel and its more pro-Palestinian stance. As part of its involvement in the process, Egypt received an official apology from Israel over the accidental killing of Egyptian border guards after the Palestinian terrorist attack on an Israeli convoy in August.

The fruits of Egypt’s increasingly anti-Israel stance can be seen in this prisoner exchange. And though Israel says it won’t happen again, it is increasingly operating from a position of weakness. In fact, on Monday, a further deal was struck between Egypt and Israel to swap 25 Egyptians in Israeli custody for a U.S.-Israeli national.