Bahrain and Iran’s quest for regional power

In Bahrain, three hard-line groups announced Tuesday that they have united to form a “Coalition for a (Bahraini) Republic.” The secretary general of Haq, one of the parties, said the coalition was “motivated by the rules of our Islamic religion and international charters on human rights to freely decide their faith.”

The new coalition has called for the ruling family to step aside and is seeking a democratic republic. Anti-government protestors have been camped out in the capital, Manama, for nearly a month now.

Stratfor ceo George Friedman believes the demonstrations in Bahrain are highly significant “in their implications for the region and potentially for the world”—particularly with regard to Iran’s quest to dominate the region.

“The Iranians clearly have an interest in overthrowing the Bahraini regime,” writes Friedman. “While the degree to which the Iranians are involved in the Bahraini unrest is unclear, they clearly have a great deal of influence over a cleric, Hassan Mushaima, who recently returned to Bahrain from London to participate in the protests” (March 8).

He goes on to explain: “Bahrain is the focal point of a struggle between Saudi Arabia and Iran for control of the western littoral of the Persian Gulf.”

If Bahrain were to fall, neighboring Saudi Arabia would be diverted, leaving Iran free to take over Iraq as U.S. troops complete their exit. However, “The Iranians are in a powerful position whatever happens given the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq,” concludes Friedman.

Combine this with a series of regime changes, or simply destabilization on the border of Saudi Arabia, and two things happen. First, the Saudi regime would be in trouble and would have to negotiate some agreement with the Iranians—and not an agreement the Saudis would like. Second, the U.S. basing position in the Persian Gulf would massively destabilize, making U.S. intervention in the region even more difficult.

Keep watching Iran.