Italy’s Berlusconi on Shaky Ground

Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is on the ropes once again. Being beset by scandals that would be unthinkable in a longstanding democracy such as the U.S. or Britain is common for Berlusconi. But this time his allies seem to be deserting him.

The New York Times writes that Berlusconi’s “former loyalists, who did not abandon him when he lost power in 2006 but who sense political weakness the way a dog smells fear, have visibly begun repositioning themselves for the next chapter—when Mr. Berlusconi is unlikely to be the leading man.”

On November 15, four ministers associated with Gianfranco Fini, who founded the People of Liberty party with Berlusconi, but later fell out with the prime minister, resigned.

On November 13, Berlusconi’s government agreed to hold a confidence vote after the budget for 2011 has been approved. If he loses the vote, to be held on December 14, in either the upper or lower chambers of Italy’s parliament, then he will have to resign.

On the same day, Italy’s Constitutional Court will decide if a law that grants the prime minister immunity from prosecution is constitutional. If it is not, he could face charges that he bribed a lawyer to give false testimony. And so Berlusconi’s allies are turning.

Vittorio Feltri, former Berlusconi ally and editor of Il Giornale, a magazine owned by the prime minister’s brother, said in an interview that Berlusconi is “tired and confused.” “He didn’t do a lot of things that he should have done,” he said.

“For years, critics of Mr. Berlusconi stayed skittishly off the record, worried about jeopardizing their futures in a patronage society in which the billionaire Berlusconi has been the leading patron,” writes the New York Times. “That, too, has begun to change. Today, politicians and other public figures who until this month were puzzlingly silent about Italy’s lack of competitiveness, low productivity, high debt, brain drain and tax evasion, among many other issues, have begun to speak openly.”

Having said that, many have forecast Berlusconi’s demise before, only to be wrong time and time again. The real kingmaker in Italy is the Catholic Church. Ultimately, whether Berlusconi stays in power or not is up to it.