Germany: A Potentially Momentous Summer Looms

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Germany: A Potentially Momentous Summer Looms

If you think Germany is conquering Europe swiftly now, wait till you see what happens next.

Amid the economic bedlam besieging Europe, an undisputed reality is emerging: Germany is exploiting this crisis to forge Europe into a vehicle of Teutonic ambition.

For Peter Zeihan, a particularly astute analyst at Stratfor, this reality crystallized in the wake of a recent remark by German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble. “We need tighter rules,” Schäuble remarked last week, in response to Greece’s failing economy and the eurozone crisis. “That means in an extreme case, the possibility that a country that does not get its finances in order at all leaves the euro group” (emphasis mine throughout).

Dramatic though it is, Schäuble’s remark is a nugget within a goldmine of evidence exposing Germany’s ambition to dominate Europe. Nevertheless, this was the nugget that caught Zeihan’s eye and sparked an exceptional piece of analysis. “[W]hat jumped out at us is that someone of Schäuble’s gravitas doesn’t go about casually making threats,” Zeihan noted. “[T]his is not the sort of statement made by a country that is constrained, harnessed, submerged or placated. … Germany now appears prepared not just to contemplate, but to publicly contemplate, the reengineering of Europe for its own interests.”

Throughout his article (which you can read in full here), Zeihan makes a multitude of important and grave observations. His conclusion almost sounded as if it had been plucked from the archives of the Trumpet:

The paradigm that created the European Union—that Germany would be harnessed and contained—is shifting. Germany now has not only found its voice, it is beginning to express, and hold to, its own national interest. A political consensus has emerged in Germany against bailing out Greece. Moreover, a political consensus has emerged in Germany that the rules of the eurozone are Germany’s to refashion. … [T]his was not the “union” the rest of Europe signed up for—it is the Mitteleuropa that the rest of Europe will remember well.

This stunning observation will not be lost on those familiar with the history of German ambition for Europe. As Zeihan noted: “If the euro is essentially gutting the European … economic base, then Germany is achieving by stealth what it failed to achieve in the past thousand years of intra-European struggles.” In others words, the country responsible for causing a multitude of conflicts in Europe, including the two most devastating wars in human history, is today—via its role as Europe’s economic savior—gaining dominion over the Continent.

If you think that’s impressive, consider: Berlin is pulling off this accomplishment in spite of its ailing national leadership!

Take a moment and try putting a face to the individual/s responsible for Berlin’s impressive achievements these past few months. Drawing a blank? Perhaps an image of Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, sprang to mind. But really, what has Merkel done specifically to refashion Europe into an instrument of German design? Barring the odd remark here and there, Merkel, when it comes to handling the eurozone crisis, has been more a voice among the chorus, than the soloist headlining the show.

Then there’s Guido Westerwelle, Germany’s vice chancellor and foreign minister. He travels the globe drumming up business for German industry and routinely, often carelessly, tosses out his two cents on foreign-policy issues. Only problem is, neither the German populace nor much of the rest of the world takes him seriously. Mired in controversy over purported immoral business dealings and his penchant for toting his homosexual partner around the world on visits with world leaders, Westerwelle’s influence on the international stage is shrinking as fast as his popularity at home.

Of course, other prominent German politicians, like Schäuble, and Josef Schlarmann—the senior politician who recently suggested that Greece sell some of its islands to pay its debts—have made striking remarks hinting at Germany’s ambition. But as dramatic and revealing as these comments are, they are for now emanating from a hodgepodge of largely independent politicians. While Germany, as Ziehan observed, is without doubt refashioning Europe, this transformation is not the result of a concerted effort by a streamlined, robust and forceful national leadership.

Fact is, German’s national leadership is in a perilous state!

When Angela Merkel was reelected last September, she took her Christian Democratic Union (cdu) and formed what appeared to be a workable, even formidable, center-right coalition with the Christian Socialist Party (csu) and Westerwelle’s Free Democratic Party (fdp). Five months later, as Timeputs it, the “alliance that was billed as a marriage made in heaven is on the rocks” (March 22).

Polls reveal that 72 percent of voters are dissatisfied with Merkel’s coalition government, which has been “riven by infighting, bitter personal rivalries and squabbles over policy direction” (ibid.). As the chancellor’s personal popularity, as well as that of her party (and Westerwelle’s fdp) plunges, pundits now wonder openly if Merkel can get a grip on her wayward coalition. These days the “great international conciliator,” noted the Financial Timeslast week, “is looking increasingly like any other embattled domestic politician, forced to spend the bulk of her time and political capital firefighting at home, and increasingly invisible abroad” (March 8).

It is in spite of these political shortcomings that Germany, as Stratfor noted, is currently reengineering Europe to its own interests; imagine what Berlin could achieve if a united, decisive and robust national leadership took charge!

Which brings us to summer 2010.

In recent weeks, conditions have quickly become extraordinarily hazardous for German politicians. First, while Germans have made it absolutely clear they have no inclination to use their hard-earned money to bail out “lazy,” irresponsible Greeks (or any other eurozone members), pressure is being piled on Berlin from the EU and the 16-member eurozone to participate in some sort of fiscal rescue package for Greece, and potentially other eurozone member states. German politicians are trapped between a disgruntled populace and a Continent beseeching Germany for assistance, and must play their cards very, very carefully.

Second, inside Germany a series of controversial issues, including reforming health care and some welfare programs, have Germans paying close attention to the moves and motives of politicians.

Navigating these shoals in the time ahead will be a challenge, particularly for Chancellor Merkel. As the incumbent, she will likely bear much of the blame for the bickering and commotion besetting her coalition, and will undoubtedly be seen by Germans as the decision-maker when it comes to rescuing (or not rescuing) Greece. Watch Merkel closely; she’s already losing supporters, and one wrong turn could leave her shipwrecked.

Keep an eye also on Westerwelle. He is becoming more unpopular, and is widely seen as the one responsible for the tension and squabbling inside Merkel’s coalition. If the fdp’s popularity continues to fall, Westerwelle’s political future will be dim. If he becomes a heavier political millstone, Merkel may figure out a way to cut him loose, replacing him with someone more appealing to the German public. (One option would have to be Baron Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, Merkel’s csu partner, and the most popular politician in Germany.)

One other event worth monitoring is the May 9 state election in North Rhine Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state. If Westerwelle’s fdp and Merkel’s cdu fare poorly, as current polls indicate they will, Merkel’s federal coalition could lose its majority in the Bundesrat, Germany’s upper house, where the states are represented. According to the Financial Times, such an outcome would “mean making continual compromises with the Social Democrats and Greens to get legislation approved: in effect, back to a grand coalition” (ibid.).

Amid the crises besieging both Europe as a whole and Germany, the formation of a cumbersome grand coalition of four or five competing political parties is simply untenable. More than likely, it would intensify German dissatisfaction toward the government and foster some sort of political crisis in Germany.

There is another important reason the Trumpet is anticipating a major change in German politics soon. Bible prophecy tells us that in the end time a strong leader will arise to assume control of a united European empire. As the late Herbert W. Armstrong taught for decades, this leader will likely come from Germany. This man is described in Daniel 8:23-25; here it indicates that he will be a strongman, a king of fierce countenance, and a man of cunning, subtle, dishonest and highly dangerous character and leadership.

Do you see Angela Merkel becoming this “king of fierce countenance”?

Moreover, looking at political conditions now converging in Germany (and Europe), isn’t it obvious how they might give rise to the emergence of a politician of terrific political acumen, and strong, vibrant leadership? (For more information on how this could happen, read “The Holy Roman Empire Is Back!”)

However it unfolds, a political revolution is about to occur in Germany, and ultimately Europe. The sun is about to set on Merkel’s time leading Germany, and a new day is about to dawn in Germany’s national leadership. If, like Mr. Zeihan, you’ve been impressed and sobered by Germany’s efforts thus far to exploit the current economic crisis to forge greater dominance over Europe, then you ought to consider studying Bible prophecy.

Truth is, Germany’s stunning recent achievements in Europe are nothing compared to what it will accomplish under new leadership!