Iranian forces invade Iraqi border
Iranian forces have made an incursion into Iraq’s Diyala province north of Baghdad, Iraqi and Kuwaiti news sources reported yesterday. According to the reports, Iranian troops removed concrete barriers delineating the border between the two countries.
The last major border incident between Iran and Iraq occurred last December when Iranian forces took over an oil well in Iraq’s Fakka oil field. Iran later withdrew, but not before reminding both Iraq and the United States of its economic and political influence over its neighbor, and its ability to turn up the heat there at will.
In that instance, it appeared Tehran was seeking to put pressure on Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to ally politically with Iran instead of the U.S. It was also seeking to warn the U.S. and Israel that its response to any military attack would endanger the stability of Iraq and complicate America’s withdrawal from the country.
Iran succeeded in putting pressure on Baghdad, with the Iraqi prime minister indicating a desire to align politically with Iran.
If reports of this latest incursion are accurate, the motives would be similar.
Stratfor reported February 20:
These moves are designed to signal Iran’s dominance over Baghdad and warn the United States of the consequences of carrying out military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. As tensions escalate over the Iranian nuclear program, such provocations will likely become more frequent, particularly in the lead-up to contentious parliamentary elections in Iraq on March 7. Iran has already demonstrated through its Shiite political allies in Baghdad that it has the upper hand in this election, as well as the means to destabilize Iraq and ensure that Iraq’s Sunni faction remains sidelined.
Top U.S. generals in Iraq allege that the two politicians who organized the banning of about 350 Sunni candidates from running in Iraq’s elections are linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. United Press International reported last Wednesday that this has “heightened concern that Tehran is tightening its grip as U.S. forces withdraw.”
One of the Iraqi politicians accused is Ahmad Chalabi, a Shiite whom Washington once worked closely with, and who was instrumental in building the case for the U.S. invasion of Iraq for the benefit of Iran.
upi reported that U.S. Army Gen. Ray Odierno said that both of the Iraqi politicians concerned
had been in close contact with Abu Mehdi al-Muhandis, the senior Iraqi adviser to Brig. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Revolutionary Guards’ elite Quds Force.
It is responsible for covert operations outside Iran and has been at the forefront of Iranian undercover activities in Iraq, including training and arming Shiite militant groups. Chalabi and Lami “are clearly influenced by Iran,” Odierno said in Washington Tuesday, referring to Tehran’s efforts to ensure its friends dominate the next parliament and probably the government as well. ”We believe they’re absolutely involved in influencing the outcome of the election, and it’s a concern that they’ve been able to do that over time,” Odierno said. The mass disqualification has resulted in a threatened boycott of the polls by the minority Sunnis, thus ensuring a landslide victory for the Shiite majority, many of whom are active supporters of Iran. The [Accountability and Justice] Commission’s activities fueled a recent surge of violence by largely Sunni insurgents who seek to wreck the elections and unravel delicate national reconciliation efforts.
upi continued, commenting on where this puts Iran:
Tehran’s actions in Iraq give it immense leverage at a time when U.S. President Barack Obama’s diplomatic efforts to persuade Iran to abandon its alleged nuclear arms program are clearly foundering.
By causing massive destabilization in Iraq, possibly enough to postpone a military withdrawal at a time when Obama is escalating the war in the Afghanistan-Pakistan theater, Tehran is showing it has some high cards to play on a much broader geopolitical scale. … By destabilizing Iraq, whose oil the Iranians have coveted for so long, Tehran is demonstrating that if it comes under military attack by Israel or the United States over the nuclear issue it has options that can make things difficult for the Americans.
Our article from back in June 2003 titled “Is Iraq About to Fall to Iran?” relates how the Trumpet foresaw this situation in which Iran has the upper hand in Iraq.
