Three Things to Watch
Russia’s move into Georgia is guaranteed to be a spur to action within the European Union on three fronts.
First, a negotiated settlement of the differences between Russia and the EU (Germany in particular) over Georgia will lead to ongoing negotiations on a pact between Russia and Germany. An emerging imperialist European Union may then feel sufficiently confident in its relations with a reviving imperialist Russia so as to turn its attention southward, away from its eastern border, to deal with the increasingly worrying thorn in its flesh: Islamic extremism’s northward push.
Second, Vladimir Putin’s recent initiatives in the Caucasus will push Germany and Russia toward settling the territorial dividing line between these two expanding imperial powers. With the Islamic crescent pushing at both from the south, the EU and Russia must soon settle their differences over the Caucasus, Ukraine and Kosovo so as to not be distracted by these situations from their need to contend with the aggression of rising Islamic power.
Putin’s actions in Georgia will simply speed up discussions between Russia and Germany on just where their common border will be drawn. Ukraine is already choking up politically just contemplating what that outcome might be.
Third, the empowerment of Russia via the political persona of Vladimir Putin will accelerate the search within the EU to nominate—perhaps at the EU summit in October—influential personalities to appoint as EU president and EU foreign minister, the two most powerful positions created under the Lisbon Treaty. At present, the EU has no political counterpart to Putin. The provocative events in Georgia will heighten the search for a personality with the power and personal strength of character to cobble together a semblance of unity among the 27 disparate member nations of the EU such that they can counter Russia.
There’s an existing cabal of influential personalities that all have a history of relating well with Putin. They just happen to be Germans: ex-German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder; Germany’s current Vice Chancellor and Minister for Foreign Affairs Frank-Walter Steinmeier; and the senior bureaucrat charged with bringing order to the disorderly EU bureaucracy, the ex-prime minister of Bavaria, Edmund Stoiber. Germany’s current Chancellor Angela Merkel’s renowned frosty relationship with Putin places her outside of being influential in concluding any lasting deals with the Russian president, or holding either of the two most influential posts being created within the EU.
Watch this cabal. Watch Vladimir Putin. Watch the Caucasus. Watch the Balkans. Watch Ukraine!